Estimating the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown on UK food retailers and the restaurant sector.

Using an approach normally used to estimate cumulative excess deaths, we measure the impact of the COVID-19 shock on sales of UK food retailers and restaurants. To control the spread of COVID-19, travel and social interactions were restricted, putting significant pressure on retailers, who had to adapt whilst complying with a fast-changing marketplace. Results show that in the period March-August 2020, COVID-19 restrictions accounted for a £4 billion increase in sales for food retailers, and £4 billion in non-store retailers; and a £20 billion loss in sales in non-food stores, and £25 billion loss in turnover for food and beverage serving services.