RESUMO
Fire disasters are one of the most common technological disasters in Iran. These disasters have killed many people and resulted in significant economic loss. The "Plasco" building fire in 2017 is one example of these catastrophic disasters, when most of Iran was affected by its tragic news. Regarding the increasing number of risk factors for fire disasters, we aimed to study future scenarios for such disasters in the country. The present study is a futuristic study with an exploratory approach that uses an intuitive logic scenario development approach. We used document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and the Delphi technique to identify driving forces and develop scenario stories, and finally those scenario stories were validated. In the document analysis phase, 22 documents were identified and analysed. After collecting information related to documents and analysing ten interviews, 41 of the driving forces were identified. By drawing the scenario matrix, four alternative scenarios for the future of fire disasters were developed. Two dimensions for scenario development were the correct application of fire prevention laws and access to driving technologies. Policymakers can concentrate on these key factors for best planning in the mitigation of fire disasters. In addition, studying scenarios can help managers and officials to better develop strategic plans for disaster risk reduction.
Les incendies catastrophiques sont les désastres technologiques les plus fréquents en Iran. Ils y ont tué de nombreuses personnes et entraîné des pertes économiques significatives. L'incendie du Plasco, en 2017, est un exemple de ce type de catastrophe, qui a affecté la plupart des iraniens. Eût égard à l'augmentation des facteurs de risque, nous avons étudié les scenarii possibles de ce type d'accident en Iran. Il s'agit d'une prospective, explorant divers déroulements considérés comme possibles. Nous avons utilisé les données de la littérature, des entretiens semi- structurés et un consensus selon la méthode Delphi pour identifier les circonstances de survenue et écrire des scenarii, ensuite validés. L'analyse bibliographique a concerné 22 documents, 10 entretiens ont été utilisés, pour identifier 41 phénomènes déclenchants et écrire 4 scenarii. L'application des lois de prévention des incendies et la limitation des facteurs favorisants, sur lesquels le législateur devrait se pencher. Ces scenarii peuvent permettre aux responsables, à leurs niveaux, de développer des plans de prévention des catastrophes liées aux incendies.
