Characterizing and Forecasting Emergency Department Visits Related to COVID-19 Using Chief Complaints and Discharge Diagnoses

In response to the unprecedented public health challenge posed by the SARS CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in the United States, we and our colleagues at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) have developed a model of COVID-19 progression using emergency department (ED) visit data from the National Capital Region (NCR). We obtained ED visits counts through targeted queries of the NCR Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-Based Epidemics (ESSENCE). To focus on ED visits by COVID-19 patients, we adjusted the query results for typical ED visit volumes and for reductions in ED volumes due to COVID-19 precautions. With these ED visit data, we fitted a logistic growth model to characterize and forecast the increase in cumulative COVID-19 ED visits. Our model achieves the best fit when we assume that the first NCR visit occurred in early January. We estimate that approximately 15,000 COVID-19 ED visits occurred prior to May 2020 and that approximately 17,000 more visits will occur in subsequent months. We plan to deploy an operational pilot of this model in the NCR ESSENCE environment, assisting local public health authorities as they brace for a second wave of COVID-19. Additionally, we will iteratively assess potential model refinements, aiming to maximize our models relevance for local public health authorities situational awareness and decision-making.

Mass gathering enhanced syndromic surveillance for the 8th Micronesian Games in 2014, Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State’s Division of Primary Health Care implemented enhanced surveillance for early warning and detection of disease to support the 8th Micronesian Games (the Games) in July 2014. The surveillance comprised 11 point-of-care sentinel sites around Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, collecting data daily for eight syndromes using standard case definitions. Each sentinel site reported total acute care encounters, total syndrome cases and the total for each syndrome. A public health response, including epidemiological investigation and laboratory testing, followed when syndrome counts reached predetermined threshold levels. The surveillance was implemented using the web-based Suite for Automated Global Electronic bioSurveillance Open-ESSENCE (SAGES-OE) application that was customized for the Games. Data were summarized in daily situation reports (SitReps) issued to key stakeholders and posted on PacNet, a Pacific public health e-mail network. Influenza-like illness (ILI) was the most common syndrome reported (55%, n = 225). Most syndrome cases (75%) were among people from Pohnpei. Only 30 cases out of a total of 408 syndrome cases (7%) presented with acute fever and rash, despite the large and ongoing measles outbreak at the time. No new infectious disease outbreak was recorded during the Games. Peaks in diarrhoeal and ILI cases were followed up and did not result in widespread transmission. The technology was a key feature of the enhanced surveillance. The introduction of the web-based tool greatly improved the timeliness of data entry, analysis and SitRep dissemination, providing assurance to the Games organizers that communicable diseases would not adversely impact the Games.

Enhanced surveillance for the Third United Nations Conference on Small Island Developing States, Apia, Samoa, September 2014

The Ministry of Health in Samoa, in partnership with the Pacific Community, successfully implemented enhanced surveillance for the high-profile Third United Nations Conference on Small Island Developing States held concurrently with the popular local Teuila festival during a widespread chikungunya outbreak in September 2014. Samoa’s weekly syndromic surveillance system was expanded to 12 syndromes and 10 sentinel sites from four syndromes and seven sentinel sites; sites included the national hospital, four private health clinics and three national health service clinics. Daily situation reports were produced and were disseminated through PacNet (the email alert and communication tool of the Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network) together with daily prioritized line lists of syndrome activity to facilitate rapid response and investigation by the Samoan EpiNet team. Standard operating procedures for surveillance and response were introduced, together with a sustainability plan, including a monitoring and evaluation framework, to facilitate the transition of the mass gathering surveillance improvements to routine surveillance. The enhanced surveillance performed well, providing vital disease early warning and health security assurance. A total of 2386 encounters and 708 syndrome cases were reported. Influenza-like illness was the most frequently seen syndrome (17%). No new infectious disease outbreaks were recorded. The experience emphasized: (1) the need for a long lead time to pilot the surveillance enhancements and to maximize their sustainability; (2) the importance of good communication between key stakeholders; and (3) having sufficient staff dedicated to both surveillance and response.

A social marketing approach to building a behavioral intervention for congenital cytomegalovirus.

Congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most common congenital infection in the United States, causing permanent disabilities in more than 5,500 children born each year. In the absence of a vaccine, a promising means of prevention is through a behavioral intervention that educates women about CMV and promotes adherence to hygiene guidelines during pregnancy. Although effective behavioral interventions have been identified for other infectious diseases with similar transmission modes, current research has not yet identified an effective intervention for CMV. One way to gather evidence and identify key elements of a successful CMV intervention is through a social marketing approach. This article describes a five-step process for applying social marketing principles to the research and development, implementation, and evaluation of a CMV behavioral intervention.

Cytomegalovirus seroprevalence in the United States: the national health and nutrition examination surveys, 1988-2004.

BACKGROUND. Congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection causes permanent disabilities in more than 5500 children each year in the United States. The likelihood of congenital infection and disability is highest for infants whose mothers were CMV seronegative before conception and who acquire infection during pregnancy. METHODS. To provide a current, nationally representative estimate of the seroprevalence of CMV in the United States and to investigate trends in CMV infection, serum samples from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004 were tested for CMV-specific immunoglobulin G antibody, and results were compared with those from NHANES III (1988-1994). Individuals aged 6-49 years (21,639 for NHANES III and 15,310 for NHANES 1999-2004) were included. RESULTS. For NHANES 1999-2004, the overall age-adjusted CMV seroprevalence was 50.4%. CMV seroprevalence was higher among non-Hispanic black and Mexican American children compared with non-Hispanic white children and increased more quickly in subsequent age groups. CMV seropositivity was independently associated with older age, female sex, foreign birthplace, low household income, high household crowding, and low household education. Compared with NHANES 1988-1994, the overall age-adjusted CMV seroprevalence for NHANES 1999-2004 was not significantly different. CONCLUSIONS. Many women of reproductive age in the United States are still at risk of primary CMV infection during pregnancy. There is an urgent need for vaccine development and other interventions to prevent and treat congenital CMV. The substantial disparities in CMV risk among seronegative women suggest that prevention strategies should include an emphasis on reaching racial or ethnic minorities and women of low socioeconomic status.

Psychosocial mediators of a school-based tobacco prevention program in India: results from the first year of project MYTRI.

Each day in India, an estimated 5,500 youth initiate tobacco use, contributing to predictions that by 2020, tobacco will account for 13% of all deaths in India. Project MYTRI (Mobilizing Youth for Tobacco-Related Initiatives in India) is a multi-component school-based intervention designed to prevent and reduce tobacco use among adolescents in Delhi and Chennai, India. The intervention was implemented over the 2004-2006 school years and involved 6th and 8th grade students in 32 classrooms. Students participated in peer-led classroom activities involving games, competitions, and other activities intended to target a number of psychosocial risk factors believed to prevent tobacco use among urban Indian youth. To more fully understand how Project MYTRI influenced students' intentions to smoke or chew tobacco, the current study used mediation analysis to investigate whether Project MYTRI altered the psychosocial risk factors as intended, and whether the changes in psychosocial risk factors were, in turn, responsible for altering students' tobacco-use intentions. Multi-level mediation models were estimated using student data from baseline and 1-year follow-up surveys. Results indicated that the psychosocial risk factors Knowledge of Health Effects, Normative Beliefs, Reasons to Use Tobacco, and Perceived Prevalence were significant mediators between the intervention activities and students' tobacco use intentions. Evidence of inconsistent mediation was observed for the Perceived Prevalence factor. These findings, combined with those from qualitative research and the second-year student data, will help to illuminate the impact of Project MYTRI on participating youth.