Detection of asymptomatic carotid stenosis in patients with lower-extremity arterial disease: development and external validations of a risk score.

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for screening patients with lower-extremity arterial disease (LEAD) to detect asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) are conflicting. Prediction models might identify patients at high risk of ACS, possibly allowing targeted screening to improve preventive therapy and compliance. METHODS: A systematic search for prediction models for at least 50 per cent ACS in patients with LEAD was conducted. A prediction model in screened patients from the USA with an ankle : brachial pressure index of 0.9 or less was subsequently developed, and assessed for discrimination and calibration. External validation was performed in two independent cohorts, from the UK and the Netherlands. RESULTS: After screening 4907 studies, no previously published prediction models were found. For development of a new model, data for 112 117 patients were used, of whom 6354 (5.7 per cent) had at least 50 per cent ACS and 2801 (2.5 per cent) had at least 70 per cent ACS. Age, sex, smoking status, history of hypercholesterolaemia, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, coronary heart disease and measured systolic BP were predictors of ACS. The model discrimination had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.71 (95 per cent c.i. 0.71 to 0.72) for at least 50 per cent ACS and 0.73 (0.72 to 0.73) for at least 70 per cent ACS. Screening the 20 per cent of patients at greatest risk detected 12.4 per cent with at least 50 per cent ACS (number needed to screen (NNS) 8] and 5.8 per cent with at least 70 per cent ACS (NNS 17). This yielded 44.2 and 46.9 per cent of patients with at least 50 and 70 per cent ACS respectively. External validation showed reliable discrimination and adequate calibration. CONCLUSION: The present risk score can predict significant ACS in patients with LEAD. This approach may inform targeted screening of high-risk individuals to enhance the detection of ACS.

[Major depressive disorder in relation with coronary heart disease and stroke in Chinese adults aged 30-79 years].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of major depressive disorder with coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in Chinese adults aged 30-79 years. METHODS: In 2004-2008, China Kadoorie Biobank was conducted in 10 geographically defined regions (5 urban and 5 rural) of China. A total number of 512 891 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited in the baseline survey. A laptop-based electronic questionnaire was administrated face-to-face by trained health workers, collecting the general demographic and socio-economic status, dietary and other lifestyle behaviours (e.g. smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity), medical history and family history of common chronic diseases. Major depressive episodes (MDE) in the past 12 months were assessed with the World Health Organization composite international diagnostic interview-short form (CIDI-SF). The physical measurements included the heights and weights, which were used to calculate the body mass indexes (BMI).Chi squared and t test were used to compare the differences in participants characteristics according to their major depressive disorder. Logistic models were employed to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI of their major depressive disorder with prevalent coronary heart disease and stroke. RESULTS: Among the 512 891 participants, 3 281 (0.6%) showed an MDE in the preceding 12 months, 15 472 (3.0%) reported prevalent CHD, and 8 884 (1.7%) reported prevalent stroke. Major depressive disorder was significantly associated with an increased risk of CHD and risk of stroke. Age- and gender-adjusted ORs (95% CI) were 1.80 (1.53-2.12) for CHD and 2.53 (2.09-3.05) for stroke. The associations were significant after further adjustment for potential confounders, such as other socio-demographic status, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, and BMI, prevalent hypertension, diabetes as well as family history of cardiovascular diseases (OR=1.83, 95% CI=1.54-2.18 for CHD; OR=2.19, 95% CI=1.79-2.69 for stroke). Moreover, gender significantly interacted with MDE on prevalent stroke (P for multiplicative interaction=0.013). The men with an MDE in the past 12 months had the highest risk of stroke in the joint analyses of gender and depression disorder (OR=5.02, 95% CI=3.70-6.82). CONCLUSION: The findings from this large cross-sectional study suggest that the presence of MDE is a risk factor for both CHD and stroke in Chinese adults aged 30-79 years, but further prospective studies are warranted to validate the results.

Vitamin B12 and folate deficiency in later life.

OBJECTIVES: to examine the prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency and folate deficiency in later life in representative samples of the elderly population in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: a population-based cross-sectional analysis of 3,511 people aged 65 years or older from three studies was used to estimate the age-specific prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency and of folate deficiency. Vitamin B12 deficiency is conventionally diagnosed if serum vitamin B12 < 150 pmol/l ('low vitamin B12'). We defined 'metabolically significant vitamin B12 deficiency' as vitamin B12 < 200 pmol/l and blood total homocysteine >20 micro mol/l. Folate deficiency, which usually refers to serum folate <5 nmol/l, was defined as 'metabolically significant' if serum folate was <7 nmol/l and homocysteine >20 micro mol/l. RESULTS: the prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency, whether defined as low vitamin B12 or metabolically significant vitamin B12 deficiency increased with age in all three studies, from about 1 in 20 among people aged 65-74 years to 1 in 10 or even greater among people aged 75 years or greater. The prevalence of folate deficiency also increased with age, and was similar to that for vitamin B12 deficiencies, but only about 10% of people with low vitamin B12 levels also had low folate levels. CONCLUSION: the high prevalence of vitamin B12 and folate deficiency observed in older people indicates a particular need for vigilance for deficiency of these vitamins. Reliable detection and treatment of vitamin deficiency could reduce the risk of deficiency-related disability in old age.

Underestimation of the importance of blood pressure and cholesterol for coronary heart disease mortality in old age.

AIMS: To take appropriate account of duration of follow-up in estimating age-specific associations of 'usual' blood pressure and cholesterol with death from coronary heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Blood pressure and cholesterol were measured in 18 841 men at entry to the Whitehall study, and coronary heart disease mortality was recorded during a 26-year period. Biennial re-measurements of these risk factors in the Framingham study were used to obtain period-specific corrections for 'regression dilution'. For coronary heart disease deaths at ages 40-64, 65-74 and 75+ years in the Whitehall study, the mean times since baseline were 9, 15, and 21 years, respectively. In uncorrected analyses of coronary heart disease risk in each age range, a 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure at baseline was associated with proportional risk reductions of only 19%, 14% and 10%, respectively (P<0.001 for trend with age). After period-specific correction for regression dilution, a 10 mmHg lower usual systolic blood pressure about 5 years before coronary heart disease death was associated with risk reductions of 25%, 23% and 21%, respectively (trend P=0.1). Similarly, a 1 mmol . l(-1)lower blood cholesterol was associated with proportional reductions in coronary heart disease risk of 21%, 17% and 11% (trend P<0.001) in uncorrected analyses, by contrast with proportional reductions of 27%, 26% and 21% (trend P=0.5) after period-specific correction. CONCLUSIONS: After making appropriate allowance for the longer interval between baseline measurements and death at older ages, reductions in the risk of coronary heart disease death associated with differences in usual levels of blood pressure or cholesterol at some particular fixed time prior to death were about as great in old age as in middle age.

Re-survey of the Whitehall study of London civil servants: changes in risk factors for cardiovascular disease during 29 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Substantial uncertainty persists about the relevance of blood pressure and cholesterol to the risk of cardiovascular disease in the elderly. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the determinants of cardiovascular risk in old age, and the relevance of such risk factors when recorded in middle and old age. METHODS: A re-survey in 1997 of 8537 survivors of a cohort of men who were originally examined in 1967-1970 when aged 40-69 years. RESULTS: Completed questionnaires were received from 7050 (82%) of the survivors, and blood pressure and blood samples from 5427 (64%). The response rate declined with increasing age, was inversely related to markers of socioeconomic status in 1967-70 and in 1997, and was lower in those who had been current smokers or had a higher blood pressure level in 1967-70. After excluding those with reported cardiovascular disease (25% of respondents), the mean levels of total cholesterol and apolipoprotein B were lower in older age groups, whereas apolipoprotein A1 levels did not vary much with age. Among those with risk factors recorded both in 1967-70 and 1997, the prevalence of smoking had declined by two-thirds (32% in 1970 and 12% in 1997), the prevalence of diabetes had increased (0.3% versus 4.5%), and the mean systolic blood pressure had increased by 16 mmHg (130 versus 146 mmHg), but the diastolic blood pressure had not changed materially (80 versus 81 mmHg), and the measured levels of total cholesterol had increased by 0.5 mmol/l (although that change may be artefactual). CONCLUSION: Follow-up of vital status in this cohort should permit an assessment of the relevance of risk factors recorded in middle and old age to cardiovascular disease in old age.

Design, objectives, and lessons from a pilot 25 year follow up re-survey of survivors in the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants.

DESIGN: To assess the feasibility of conducting a re-survey of men who are resident in the United Kingdom 25 years after enrollment in the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants. METHODS: A random sample of 401 study survivors resident in three health authority areas was selected for this pilot study. They were mailed a request to complete a self administered questionnaire, and then asked to attend their general practice to have their blood pressure, weight, and height measured and a blood sample collected into a supplied vacutainer, and mailed to a central laboratory. Using a 2 x 2 factorial design, the impact of including additional questions on income and of an informant questionnaire on cognitive function was assessed. RESULTS: Accurate addresses were obtained from the health authorities for 96% of the sample. Questionnaires were received from 73% and blood samples from 61% of the sample. Questions on income had no adverse effect on the response rate, but inclusion of the informant questionnaire did. Between 1970 and 1995 there were substantial changes within men in the mean blood pressure and blood total cholesterol recorded, as reflected by correlation coefficients between 1970 and 1995 values of 0.26, and 0.30 for systolic and diastolic blood pressure and 0.38 for total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: This pilot study demonstrated the feasibility of conducting a re-survey using postal questionnaires and mailed whole blood samples. The magnitude of change in blood pressure and blood total cholesterol concentrations within individuals was greater than anticipated, suggesting that such remeasurements may be required at different intervals in prospective studies to help interpret risks associations properly. These issues will be considered in a re-survey of the remaining survivors of the Whitehall study.

Variability and determinants of total homocysteine concentrations in plasma in an elderly population.

The variability of plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) was examined in 96 individuals over a 1-yr period. Blood tHcy concentrations varied from 7.1 micromol/L in the bottom quintile to 14.5 micromol/L in the top quintile. The mean tHcy was 10.4 micromol/L, the between-person SD was 2.5 micromol/L, and the within-person SD was 0.93 micromol/L. There was little seasonal variation, and the reliability coefficient was 0.88. Mean tHcy concentrations were inversely related to mean plasma folate (r = -0.36) and vitamin B12 (r = -0.35) concentrations. Median tHcy concentrations were approximately 1 micromol/L higher in men than in women and in older (70 to 74 years) than in younger (65 to 69 years) individuals and higher in those with the TT and CT genotypes for the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphism than in those with the CC genotype (10.7 and 10.6 vs 9.6 micromol/L). Epidemiological studies based on single tHcy measurements may underestimate the magnitude of any risk associations with disease by 10-15%.