Development and validation of a prediction index for recent mortality in advanced COPD patients.

The primary barrier to initiating palliative care for advanced COPD patients is the unpredictable course of the disease. We enroll 752 COPD patients into the study and validate the prediction tools for 1-year mortality using the current guidelines for palliative care. We also develop a composite prediction index for 1-year mortality and validate it in another cohort of 342 patients. Using the current prognostic models for recent mortality in palliative care, the best area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality is 0.68. Using the Modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score and oxygen saturation to define the combined dyspnea and oxygenation (DO) index, we find that the AUC of the DO index is 0.84 for predicting mortality in the validated cohort. Predictions of 1-year mortality based on the current palliative care guideline for COPD patients are poor. The DO index exhibits better predictive ability than other models in the study.

Increasing burden of major trauma in elderly adults during 2003-2015: Analysis of real-world data from Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Major trauma has been one of the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and functional disability, resulting in substantial societal burden. The aim of this study was to estimate the trends in burden of adult major trauma in Taiwan during 2003-2015. METHODS: Adult patients with initial encounter of major trauma (injury severity score ≥ 16) were abstracted from the claim data of National Health Insurance (NHI) in Taiwan from January 2003 to December 2015. We explored the trends of incidence and mortality rates over time stratified by age and sex, as well as life expectancy (LE), loss-of-LE, lifetime healthcare expenditure and total loss-of-LE compared with age, sex and calendar-year matched referents simulated from the vital statistics of Taiwan. RESULTS: A total of 71,731 cases of adult major trauma, and an estimated loss of 979,676 life-years were found with an increasing trend in cumulative incidence rate (CIR18-84) during 2003-2015. The incidence rates were significantly higher in men than women. For both sexes, the incidence rates for those aged 65 and above were about 2-3 times higher than those of all other age groups. The one-year case fatality rates among the elderly were about 31-61%, higher than all other ages. The lifetime healthcare expenditures per person were 47,616 USD in men and 43,416 USD in women. CONCLUSION: There is a consistently increasing trend in incidence and mortality of major trauma in Taiwan, especially among elderly people. For Taiwan, an aged society beginning since 2018, the challenge should be tackled more effectively in the coming decades.

Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention versus medical therapy in patients with acute myocardial infarction: real-world and lifetime-horizon data from Taiwan.

Although some studies have assessed the cost-effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in acute myocardial infarction (AMI), there has been a lack of nationwide real-world studies estimating life expectancy (LE), loss-of-LE, life-years saved, and lifetime medical costs. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of PCI versus non-PCI therapy by integrating a survival function and mean-cost function over a lifelong horizon to obtain the estimations for AMI patients without major comorbidities. We constructed a longitudinal AMI cohort based on the claim database of Taiwan's National Health Insurance during 1999-2015. Taiwan's National Mortality Registry Database was linked to derive a survival function to estimate LE, loss-of-LE, life-years saved, and lifetime medical costs in both therapies. This study enrolled a total of 38,441 AMI patients; AMI patients receiving PCI showed a fewer loss-of-LE (3.6 versus 5.2 years), and more lifetime medical costs (US$ 49,112 versus US$ 43,532). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$ 3488 per life-year saved. After stratification by age, the AMI patients aged 50-59 years receiving PCI was shown to be cost-saving. From the perspective of Taiwan's National Health Insurance, PCI is cost-effective in AMI patients without major comorbidities. Notably, for patients aged 50-59 years, PCI is cost-saving.

Life expectancy (LE) and loss-of-LE for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prognosis of COPD is usually expressed as a 3-year survival rate, which might not be easily understood by lay people. This study estimates the life expectancy (LE) and loss-of-LE for COPD patients with different GOLD stages and patients with a history of acute exacerbation (AE) requiring hospitalization (severe AE) in the preceding year. METHODS: 532 patients who were diagnosed with COPD according to the GOLD criteria at NCKU hospital between 2006 and 2016 were recruited. Survival was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method, and extrapolated to lifetime to obtain the LE. The loss-of-LE was quantified by subtracting the LE of the COPD cohort from national life tables. The survival of patients with severe AE history was validated by a nation-wide cohort from the National Health Insurance dataset. RESULTS: The survival of patients with severe stage COPD (GOLD grades 3 and 4) was almost the same as those patients with a history of severe AE and the loss-of-LE for the former and the latter were 9.3 (1.1) and 9.4 (1.3) years, respectively. The nation-wide cohort with severe AE history (n = 44,764) showed a loss-of-LE of 8.3 (0.1) years. The loss-of-LE of patients with moderate stage COPD (GOLD grade 2) was 6.2 years, but no reduction in LE was noted for mild stage COPD (GOLD grade 1). CONCLUSIONS: We successfully estimated LE and loss of LE in COPD patients under the GOLD criteria. The survival of severe stage COPD patients is almost the same as those with severe AE history, or about 8-9 years of life lost.