Exploring the perceptions and experiences of community rehabilitation for Long COVID from the perspectives of Scottish general practitioners' and people living with Long COVID: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the experience of accessing Long COVID community rehabilitation from the perspectives of people with Long COVID and general practitioners (GPs). DESIGN: Qualitative descriptive study employing one-to-one semistructured virtual interviews analysed using the framework method. SETTING: Four National Health Service Scotland territorial health boards. PARTICIPANTS: 11 people with Long COVID (1 male, 10 female; aged 40-65 (mean 53) and 13 GPs (5 male, 8 female). RESULTS: Four key themes were identified: (1) The lived experience of Long COVID, describing the negative impact of Long COVID on participants' health and quality of life; (2) The challenges of an emergent and complex chronic condition, including uncertainties related to diagnosis and management; (3) Systemic challenges for Long COVID service delivery, including lack of clear pathways for access and referral, siloed services, limited resource and a perceived lack of holistic care, and (4) Perceptions and experiences of Long COVID and its management, including rehabilitation. In this theme, a lack of knowledge by GPs and people with Long COVID on the potential role of community rehabilitation for Long COVID was identified. Having prior knowledge of rehabilitation or being a healthcare professional appeared to facilitate access to community rehabilitation. Finally, people with Long COVID who had received rehabilitation had generally found it beneficial. CONCLUSIONS: There are several patient, GP and service-level barriers to accessing community rehabilitation for Long COVID. There is a need for greater understanding by the public, GPs and other potential referrers of the role of community rehabilitation professionals in the management of Long COVID. There is also a need for community rehabilitation services to be well promoted and accessible to the people with Long COVID for whom they may be appropriate. The findings of this study can be used by those (re)designing community rehabilitation services for people with Long COVID.

Investigating Scottish Long COVID community rehabilitation service models from the perspectives of people living with Long COVID and healthcare professionals: a qualitative descriptive study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the perceptions and experiences of barriers and facilitators to accessing Long COVID community rehabilitation. DESIGN: We used a qualitative descriptive design over two rounds of data collection with three participant groups: (1) people with experience of rehabilitation for Long COVID (PwLC); (2) National Health Service (NHS) staff delivering and/or managing community rehabilitation services (allied health professionals (AHPs)) and (3) NHS staff involved in strategic planning around Long COVID in their health board (Long COVID leads). SETTING: Four NHS Scotland territorial health boards. PARTICIPANTS: 51 interviews: eight Long COVID leads (11 interviews); 15 AHPs (25 interviews) and 15 PwLC (15 interviews). RESULTS: Three key themes were identified: (1) accessing care for PwLC, (2) understanding Long COVID and its management and (3) strengths and limitations of existing Long COVID rehabilitation services. CONCLUSIONS: Organisational delivery of Long COVID community rehabilitation is complex and presents multiple challenges. In addition, access to Long COVID community rehabilitation can be challenging. When accessed, these services are valued by PwLC but require adequate planning, publicity and resource. The findings presented here can be used by those developing and delivering services for people with Long COVID.

Exercise therapy for tendinopathy: a mixed-methods evidence synthesis exploring feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness.

Background: Tendinopathy is a common, painful and functionally limiting condition, primarily managed conservatively using exercise therapy. Review questions: (i) What exercise interventions have been reported in the literature for which tendinopathies? (ii) What outcomes have been reported in studies investigating exercise interventions for tendinopathy? (iii) Which exercise interventions are most effective across all tendinopathies? (iv) Does type/location of tendinopathy or other specific covariates affect which are the most effective exercise therapies? (v) How feasible and acceptable are exercise interventions for tendinopathies? Methods: A scoping review mapped exercise interventions for tendinopathies and outcomes reported to date (questions i and ii). Thereafter, two contingent systematic review workstreams were conducted. The first investigated a large number of studies and was split into three efficacy reviews that quantified and compared efficacy across different interventions (question iii), and investigated the influence of a range of potential moderators (question iv). The second was a convergent segregated mixed-method review (question v). Searches for studies published from 1998 were conducted in library databases (n = 9), trial registries (n = 6), grey literature databases (n = 5) and Google Scholar. Scoping review searches were completed on 28 April 2020 with efficacy and mixed-method search updates conducted on 19 January 2021 and 29 March 2021. Results: Scoping review - 555 included studies identified a range of exercise interventions and outcomes across a range of tendinopathies, most commonly Achilles, patellar, lateral elbow and rotator cuff-related shoulder pain. Strengthening exercise was most common, with flexibility exercise used primarily in the upper limb. Disability was the most common outcome measured in Achilles, patellar and rotator cuff-related shoulder pain; physical function capacity was most common in lateral elbow tendinopathy. Efficacy reviews - 204 studies provided evidence that exercise therapy is safe and beneficial, and that patients are generally satisfied with treatment outcome and perceive the improvement to be substantial. In the context of generally low and very low-quality evidence, results identified that: (1) the shoulder may benefit more from flexibility (effect sizeResistance:Flexibility = 0.18 [95% CrI 0.07 to 0.29]) and proprioception (effect sizeResistance:Proprioception = 0.16 [95% CrI -1.8 to 0.32]); (2) when performing strengthening exercise it may be most beneficial to combine concentric and eccentric modes (effect sizeEccentricOnly:Concentric+Eccentric = 0.48 [95% CrI -0.13 to 1.1]; and (3) exercise may be most beneficial when combined with another conservative modality (e.g. injection or electro-therapy increasing effect size by ≈0.1 to 0.3). Mixed-method review - 94 studies (11 qualitative) provided evidence that exercise interventions for tendinopathy can largely be considered feasible and acceptable, and that several important factors should be considered when prescribing exercise for tendinopathy, including an awareness of potential barriers to and facilitators of engaging with exercise, patients' and providers' prior experience and beliefs, and the importance of patient education, self-management and the patient-healthcare professional relationship. Limitations: Despite a large body of literature on exercise for tendinopathy, there are methodological and reporting limitations that influenced the recommendations that could be made. Conclusion: The findings provide some support for the use of exercise combined with another conservative modality; flexibility and proprioception exercise for the shoulder; and a combination of eccentric and concentric strengthening exercise across tendinopathies. However, the findings must be interpreted within the context of the quality of the available evidence. Future work: There is an urgent need for high-quality efficacy, effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and qualitative research that is adequately reported, using common terminology, definitions and outcomes. Study registration: This project is registered as DOI: 10.11124/JBIES-20-00175 (scoping review); PROSPERO CRD 42020168187 (efficacy reviews); https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/y7sk6/ (efficacy review 1); https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/eyxgk/ (efficacy review 2); https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/mx5pv/ (efficacy review 3); PROSPERO CRD42020164641 (mixed-method review). Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) HTA programme and will be published in full in HTA Journal; Vol. 27, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Tendons are cords of strong, flexible tissue that attach muscles to bones, allowing joints to move. Tendinopathy is a common condition that can affect any tendon in the body, causing pain and limiting function. Exercise is often used to treat tendinopathy. We examined over 500 research papers on exercise for tendinopathy. The most common tendons to be studied were the calf (Achilles), knee (patellar), elbow and shoulder. Strengthening exercise was studied most often, especially in lower-limb tendinopathy. Other types of exercise such as stretching, balance and aerobic activity were less common, but were used to some extent in the upper and lower limbs. We found that exercise therapy is safe and beneficial for the tendinopathies that have been studied to date. Exercise may be most beneficial when combined with another intervention such as injection or electro-therapy. Strengthening exercise may be most beneficial for lower-limb tendinopathies. However, more research is needed on the type of strengthening and the dosage, such as how many exercises and how much resistance to use. Shoulder tendinopathies may benefit from exercise that targets joint flexibility and position more than strengthening. We also found that people who receive exercise therapy for tendinopathy are generally satisfied with the effect it has on their symptoms. Finally, we found that an individualised, person-centred approach to delivering exercise therapy is valued by people with tendinopathy. They also believe that the patient-healthcare provider relationship is important for promoting the confidence and motivation people need to continue with exercise programmes, especially when they complete them independently. Although we examined a lot of papers, many of the studies were low quality. This means there is still a need for high-quality studies to tell us how effective specific types of exercise are for specific tendinopathies. There is also a need for more studies on patients' and professionals' experiences of receiving or providing exercise for tendinopathy.

Effect of resistance exercise dose components for tendinopathy management: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate potential moderating effects of resistance exercise dose components including intensity, volume and frequency, for the management of common tendinopathies. DESIGN: Systematic review with meta-analysis and meta-regressions. DATA SOURCES: Including but not limited to: MEDLINE, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, ClinicalTrials.gov and ISRCTN Registry. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Randomised and non-randomised controlled trials investigating resistance exercise as the dominant treatment class, reporting sufficient information regarding ≥2 components of exercise dose. RESULTS: A total of 110 studies were included in meta-analyses (148 treatment arms (TAs), 3953 participants), reporting on five tendinopathy locations (rotator cuff: 48 TAs; Achilles: 43 TAs; lateral elbow: 29 TAs; patellar: 24 TAs; gluteal: 4 TAs). Meta-regressions provided consistent evidence of greater pooled mean effect sizes for higher intensity therapies comprising additional external resistance compared with body mass only (large effect size domains: ß BodyMass: External = 0.50 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.15 to 0.84; p=0.998); small effect size domains (ß BodyMass: External = 0.04 (95% CrI: -0.21 to 0.31; p=0.619)) when combined across tendinopathy locations or analysed separately. Greater pooled mean effect sizes were also identified for the lowest frequency (less than daily) compared with mid (daily) and high frequencies (more than once per day) for both effect size domains when combined or analysed separately (p≥0.976). Evidence for associations between training volume and pooled mean effect sizes was minimal and inconsistent. SUMMARY/CONCLUSION: Resistance exercise dose is poorly reported within tendinopathy management literature. However, this large meta-analysis identified some consistent patterns indicating greater efficacy on average with therapies prescribing higher intensities (through inclusion of additional loads) and lower frequencies, potentially creating stronger stimuli and facilitating adequate recovery.

What are small, medium and large effect sizes for exercise treatments of tendinopathy? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective: To quantify and describe effect size distributions from exercise therapies across a range of tendinopathies and outcome domains to inform future research and clinical practice through conducting a systematic review with meta-analysis. Design: Systematic review with meta-analysis exploring moderating effects and context-specific small, medium and large thresholds. Eligibility criteria: Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials involving any persons with a diagnosis of rotator cuff, lateral elbow, patellar, Achilles or gluteal tendinopathy of any severity or duration. Methods: Common databases, six trial registries and six grey literature databases were searched on 18 January 2021 (PROSPERO: CRD42020168187). Standardised mean difference (SMDpre) effect sizes were used with Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis models to calculate the 0.25 (small), 0.5 (medium) and 0.75 quantiles (large) and compare pooled means across potential moderators. Risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's Risk of Bias tool. Results: Data were obtained from 114 studies comprising 171 treatment arms 4104 participants. SMDpre effect sizes were similar across tendinopathies but varied across outcome domains. Greater threshold values were obtained for self-reported measures of pain (small=0.5, medium=0.9 and large=1.4), disability (small=0.6, medium=1.0 and large=1.5) and function (small=0.6, medium=1.1 and large=1.8) and lower threshold values obtained for quality of life (small=-0.2, medium=0.3 and large=0.7) and objective measures of physical function (small=0.2, medium=0.4 and large=0.7). Potential moderating effects of assessment duration, exercise supervision and symptom duration were also identified, with greater pooled mean effect sizes estimated for longer assessment durations, supervised therapies and studies comprising patients with shorter symptom durations. Conclusion: The effect size of exercise on tendinopathy is dependent on the type of outcome measure assessed. Threshold values presented here can be used to guide interpretation and assist with further research better establishing minimal important change.

Long-term adverse effects and healthcare burden of rectal cancer radiotherapy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: As rectal cancer survival increases, more patients survive with potentially severe, long-term gastrointestinal and genitourinary complications from radiotherapy. The burden of these complications for patients and healthcare services is unclear, which this review aims to quantify. METHODS: Systematic search of Medline and Embase for randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) and multicentre observational studies published since 2000, reporting hospitalization/procedural intervention for long-term (>6 months post-treatment) gastrointestinal or genitourinary complications after radiotherapy and surgery for rectal cancer. Prevalence values were pooled in a meta-analysis assuming random effects. Organ-preservation patients were excluded. RESULTS: 4044 records screened; 24 reports from 23 studies included (15 RCTs, 8 Observational), encompassing 15 438 patients. Twenty-one studies (median follow-up 60 months) reported gastrointestinal complications post-radiotherapy: pooled prevalence 11% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 8-14%). Thirteen reported small bowel obstruction: prevalence 9% (95% CI 6-12%), a 58% increased risk compared with surgery alone (RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.26-1.98, n = 5 studies). Seven reported fistulas: prevalence 1% (95% CI 1-2%). Thirteen reported genitourinary complications: prevalence 4% (95% CI 1-6%); RR 1.10 (95% CI 0.88-1.38, n = 3 studies) compared with surgery alone. CONCLUSIONS: Over 10% of patients are hospitalized for long-term complications following rectal cancer radiotherapy. Serious gastrointestinal complications are commonplace; late small bowel obstruction is more common in patients having radiotherapy and surgery compared with surgery alone. Patients and clinicians need to be aware of these risks.

Erratum to: Development of a clinical risk score for pain and function following total knee arthroplasty: results from the TRIO study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/rap/rky021.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/rap/rky021.].

Patients follow three distinct outcome trajectories following total knee arthroplasty.

AIMS: Although total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a highly successful procedure, about 20% of patients remain dissatisfied postoperatively. This proportion is derived from dichotomous models of the assessment of surgical success or failure, which may not reflect the spectrum of outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore differing responses to surgery, and assess whether there are distinct groups of patients with differing patterns of outcome. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a UK multicentre TKA longitudinal cohort study. We used a group-based trajectory modelling analysis of Oxford Knee Score (OKS) in the first year following surgery with longitudinal data involving five different timepoints and multiple predictor variables. Associations between the derived trajectory groups and categorical baseline variables were assessed, and predictors of trajectory group membership were identified using Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression, as appropriate. The final model was adjusted for sociodemographic factors (age, sex) and baseline OKS. RESULTS: Data from 731 patients were available for analysis. Three distinct trajectories of outcome were identified: "poor" 14.0%, "modest" 39.1%, and "good" 46.9%. The predicted probability of membership for patients assigned to each trajectory group was high (0.89 to 0.93). Preoperative mental, physical health, and psychosocial factors determined which trajectory is likely to be followed. Poor responders were characterized by a comparatively small number of factors, preoperative expectations of pain and limitations, coping strategies, and a lower baseline physical health status, while the good responders were characterized by a combination of clinical, psychosocial, mental health, and quality of life factors. CONCLUSION: We identified three distinct response trajectories in patients undergoing TKA. Controlling for baseline score, age, and sex, psychosocial factors such as expectations of pain and limited function and poor coping strategies differentiated the trajectory groups, suggesting a role for preoperative psychosocial support in optimizing the clinical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1096-1102.

Pathological response post neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer is an independent predictor of survival.

AIM: Neoadjuvant treatment (NaT) for locally advanced rectal cancer prior to surgery has led to improved outcomes. However, the relationship between pathological response to NaT and survival is not entirely clear. The aim of this study was to assess the degree of pathological response to NaT on survival outcomes. METHODS: Clinical and pathological data were collected from a prospectively maintained pathology database between 2005 and 2017. The primary outcome was the overall survival based on pathological response categorized as complete, good partial, partial and minimal. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify variables predictive of survival. Cox proportional hazard ratios were used for survival. RESULTS: A total of 596 patients had surgery following NaT for locally advanced rectal cancer. The median follow-up was 4.57 years (interquartile range 2.21-8.15 years). The overall survival for complete pathological response was 75.6% vs. 37.3% for minimal response (P < 0.001). The overall survival at the end of the study in the good partial vs. partial response groups was 58.9% vs. 39% (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the degree of pathological response remains an independent variable for overall and disease-specific survival across all categories. DISCUSSION: In addition to other pathological variables, the degree of pathological response to NaT is an independent predictor for survival outcomes. Future verification of these findings elsewhere could support NaT response being used for adjuvant therapy decision making.

Outcomes and treatment responses, including work productivity, among people with axial spondyloarthritis living in urban and rural areas: a mixed-methods study within a national register.

OBJECTIVE: To examine differences in clinical and patient-reported outcomes, including work, in individuals with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) living in rural and urban settings. METHODS: Using a sequential, explanatory mixed-method design, data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Ankylosing Spondylitis were used to (1) characterise participants with axSpA living in rural and urban areas and (b) assess any differences in outcome after commencement of biologic therapy (phase 1). Semistructured interviews (phase 2) further explored the results from phase 1. RESULTS: Patients with axSpA living in rural areas were older and more likely to work in a physical job. Among patients prescribed biologics, there were no differences in response to biologics, but after adjustment for age, sex and local area deprivation rural dwellers reported more presenteeism and overall work impairment. Work effects could be explained by accounting for individual differences in disease activity, fatigue, physical function and job type. Interviews highlighted the complex relationship between clinical factors, contextual factors (work environment, job demands) and work disability. The ability to work and flexibility in terms of what, when and how tasks are undertaken were important. Support from employers was variable and healthcare professionals were often perceived as unsupportive. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with axSpA living in rural areas report a greater impact of their disease on work productivity. New measures are needed to capture important contextual factors and comprehensively determine the impact of long-term conditions on work. Future European League Against Rheumatism axSpA recommendations should include support to work as a target to optimise quality of life in patients with axSpA.

The prevalence of fibromyalgia in axial spondyloarthritis.

Comorbid fibromyalgia, in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) has been shown to influence disease activity and function, and quality of life. Although several papers exist, there is no comprehensive and robust systematic review to determine the prevalence of fibromyalgia in this patient group. Thus, the aim of the current study was to provide a definitive estimate of prevalence of fibromyalgia in axSpA, and in axSpA sub-classifications. A systematic literature search was conducted in Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Evidence Based Medicine (EBM), and Cochrane Library, updated to April 2020, combining keywords and relevant MeSH headings, to identify papers reporting the prevalence of fibromyalgia in axSpA, or data from which this could be computed. This was then combined in a meta-analysis with data from the Scotland Registry for Ankylosing Spondylitis (SIRAS), a national axSpA register in Scotland. Data was pooled using random or fixed effects models where heterogeneity was greater or lesser than 75%. From 3401 manuscripts initially identified, 15 papers were included in the final review, plus SIRAS, giving data from 16 separate sources. The prevalence of fibromyalgia, among a total of 5214 patients, was 16.4% (95% CI 12.3-20.5%). Prevalence varied with axSpA sub-classification: ankylosing spondylitis: 13.8% (9.1-18.6%); MRI positive non-radiographic axSpA 20.3% (6.5-34.1%); and 'clinical' disease: 11.1% (6.0-16.2%). Overall, around 1 in 6 patients with axSpA also meet criteria for fibromyalgia. While estimates from individual studies vary, comorbid fibromyalgia represents a considerable burden across all sub-classifications of axSpA. This emphasises that focusing management solely on inflammatory disease in this patient group is unlikely to yield optimal improvements in quality of life.

Quantifying and predicting the effect of anti-TNF therapy on axSpA-related fatigue: results from the BSRBR-AS registry and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Effective management of axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA)-related fatigue is a major unmet clinical need. Anti-TNF therapy may reduce fatigue levels, although any effect has yet to be definitively quantified and predictors of any such improvements are unknown. METHODS: The British Society of Rheumatology Register in Axial Spondyloarthritis (BSRBR-AS) prospectively recruited axSpA patients across the UK. Changes in fatigue levels (measured using the Chalder Fatigue Scale) >1 year were compared between those starting anti-TNF therapy at the time of recruitment and those not. Differences between treatment groups were adjusted using propensity score matching. Results were meta-analysed with the extant literature to calculate pooled estimates. Then, among those BSRBR-AS anti-TNF commencers with clinically relevant fatigue, baseline predictors of response were investigated. RESULTS: Of the 998 BSRBR-AS recruits with complete fatigue data, 310 were anti-TNF commencers. At 1-year follow-up, the former group reported a mean fatigue change of -2.6 (95% CI -4.1, -1.9) points while the latter reported a mean worsening of fatigue by 0.2 points. Following propensity score adjustment, those commencing anti-TNF therapy reduced fatigue by 3.0 points compared with those not. Of those with significant fatigue and commencing anti-TNF, poor sleep quality at baseline predicted fatigue improvement. In the meta-analysis, including 1109 subjects, treatment with anti-TNF therapy resulted in a significant improvement in fatigue [Standardized mean difference (SMD) = 0.36, 95% CI 0.15, 1.56]. CONCLUSION: Anti-TNF therapy results in a significant but modest reduction in fatigue amongst axSpA patients, with those reporting poor sleep quality most likely to report improvement. Effective management will likely require additional approaches.

Identifying Persons with Axial Spondyloarthritis At Risk of Poor Work Outcome: Results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register.

OBJECTIVE: First, to test the hypothesis that, among working patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), those who report issues with reduced productivity at work (presenteeism) are at higher risk of work absence (absenteeism), and patients who report absenteeism are at higher risk of subsequently leaving the workforce. Second, to identify characteristics of workers at high risk of poor work outcome. METHODS: The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register in Ankylosing Spondylitis has recruited patients meeting Assessment of Spondyloarthritis international Society criteria for axSpA from 83 centers. Data collection involved clinical and patient-reported measures at recruitment and annually thereafter, including the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment scale. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify factors associated with poor work outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 1188 participants in this analysis who were working at recruitment, 79% reported some presenteeism and 19% some absenteeism in the past week owing to their axSpA. Leaving employment was most strongly associated with previous absenteeism (RR 1.02 per % increase in absenteeism, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), which itself was most strongly associated with previous presenteeism, a labor-intensive job, and peripheral joint involvement. High disease activity, fatigue, a labor-intensive job, and poorer physical function were all independently associated with future presenteeism. CONCLUSION: Clinical and patient-reported factors along with aspects of work are associated with an increased risk of axSpA patients having a poor outcome in relation to work. This study has identified modifiable factors as targets, facilitating patients with axSpA to remain productive at work.

Development of a clinical risk score for pain and function following total knee arthroplasty: results from the TRIO study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to develop and validate a simple clinical prediction model, based on easily collected preoperative information, to identify patients at high risk of pain and functional disability 6 months after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: This was a multicentre cohort study of patients from nine centres across the UK, who were undergoing a primary TKA for OA. Information on sociodemographic, psychosocial, clinical and quality-of-life measures were collected at recruitment. The primary outcome measure for this analysis was the Oxford knee score (OKS), measured 6 months postoperatively by postal questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the model. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) and internal validity were assessed, and a simple clinical risk score was developed. RESULTS: Seven hundred and twenty-one participants (mean age 68.3 years; 53% female) provided data for the present analysis, and 14% had a poor outcome at 6 months. Key predictors were poor clinical status, widespread body pain, high expectation of postoperative pain and lack of active coping. The developed model based on these variables demonstrated good discrimination. At the optimal cut-off, the final model had a sensitivity of 83%, specificity of 61% and positive likelihood ratio of 2.11. Excellent agreement was found between observed and predicted outcomes, and there was no evidence of overfitting in the model. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated a clinical prediction model that can be used to identify patients at high risk of a poor outcome after TKA. This clinical risk score may be an aid to shared decision-making between patient and clinician.

Impact of biological therapy on work outcomes in patients with axial spondyloarthritis: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR-AS) and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify, among patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), the benefit on work outcomes associated with commencing biologic therapy. METHODS: The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register in Axial Spondyloarthritis (BSRBRAS) recruited patients meeting Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society criteria for axSpA naïve to biological therapy across 83 centres in Great Britain. Work outcomes (measured using the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Index) were compared between those starting biological therapy at the time of recruitment and those not. Differences between treatment groups were adjusted using propensity score matching. Results from BSRBR-AS were combined with other studies in a meta-analysis to calculate pooled estimates. RESULTS: Of the 577 participants in this analysis who were in employment, 27.9% were starting biological therapy at the time of recruitment. After propensity score adjustment, patients undergoing biological therapy, at 12-month follow-up, experienced significantly greater improvements (relative to non-biological therapy) in presenteeism (-9.4%, 95% CI -15.3% to -3.5%), overall work impairment (-13.9%, 95% CI -21.1% to -6.7%) and overall activity impairment (-19.2%, 95% CI -26.3% to -12.2%). There was no difference in absenteeism (-1.5%, 95% CI -8.0 to 4.9). Despite these improvements, impact on work was still greater in the biological treated cohort at follow-up. In the meta-analysis including 1109 subjects across observational studies and trials, treatment with biological therapy was associated with significantly greater improvements in presenteeism, work impairment and activity impairment, but there was no difference in absenteeism. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence that treatment with biological therapy significantly improves work productivity and activity impairment in people with axSpA. However, there remain substantial unmet needs in relation to work.

A systematic review of symptomatic diagnosis of lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer (LC) is often diagnosed late when curative intervention is no longer viable. However, current referral guidelines (e.g. UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines) for suspected LC are based on a weak evidence base. Aim. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify symptoms that are independently associated with LC and to identify the key methodological issues relating to symptomatic diagnosis research in LC. METHODS: Medline, Ovid and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature were searched for the period between 1946 and 2012 using the MeSH terms 'lung cancer' and 'symptom*'. Quality of each paper was assessed using Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network and Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research Checklists and checked by a second and third reviewer. RESULTS: Evidence regarding the diagnostic values of most symptoms was inconclusive; haemoptysis was the only symptom consistently indicated as a predictor of LC. Generally, evidence was weakened by methodological issues such as the lack of standardized data collection (recording bias) and the lack of comparability of findings across the different studies that extend beyond the spectrum of disease. Qualitative studies indicated that patients with LC experienced symptoms months before diagnosis but did not interpret them as serious enough to seek health care. Therefore, early LC symptoms might be under-represented in primary care clinical notes. CONCLUSION: Current evidence is insufficient to suggest a symptom profile for LC across the disease stages, nor can it be concluded that classical LC symptoms are predictors of LC apart from, perhaps, haemoptysis. Prospective studies are now needed that systematically record symptoms and explore their predictive values for LC diagnosis.