Modeling LULC using Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov change (MLP-MC) and identifying local drivers of LULC in hilly district of Manipur, India.

Identification and prediction of future land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their drivers are required for land resources management, formulation of better policy, practicing sustainable management strategies, and modeling future LULC. The present study has focused on the prediction of future LULC and assessment of local drivers of LULC change in the hill agroecosystem Senapati district of Manipur, Northeast India. The prediction of future LULC for 2029 was achieved based on LULC data of 1999, 2009, and 2019 satellite data using multi-layer perceptron Markov change (MLP-MC) of Land Change Modeler (LCM). The socio-economic survey and field observation were performed to identify local drivers of LULC changes in the study area. The total area covered by open and dense forests in 2029 was 69.06% of the total geographical area of the district, a slight increase from the 2019 assessment of 61.01 km2. The drivers of LULC were categorized by assigning rank. The proximate drivers directly influence land use dynamics, such as increases in the settlement area, firewood collection, and construction. The underlying drivers-population growth and poverty-have also indirectly influenced LULC change in the district. It was observed that the livelihoods of local communities depend on forest products and agriculture. Therefore, the study finding will help create a future LULC information database and identification of local drivers of LULC. It will encourage the communities to participate in proper land resource management and create awareness for the sustainable use of the land.

Spatio-temporal assessment on land use and land cover (LULC) and forest fragmentation in shifting agroecosystem landscape in Ukhrul district of Manipur, Northeast India.

The information on land use and land cover (LULC) plays a critical role in understanding the interactions between human activities and the natural environment. The changes in LULC have a significant impact on the ecological integrity of forests, biodiversity, and natural resources, which in turn trigger global environmental change. Forest fragmentation is an important conservation challenge that includes interdependent forest loss components and spatial shift patterns. Over the years, Northeast India has experienced major changes in LULC and forest fragmentation. There are limited information and data regarding the change in LULC patterns and causes of forest fragmentation. The present study was carried out with an attempt to analyze the change in LULC and forest fragmentation using satellite data of three different time series: 1991, 2005, and 2020 for Ukhrul district, Manipur, Northeast India. Different LULC classes were classified using the supervised method, viz., maximum likelihood algorithm in ERDAS Imagine 2014 and generated thematic maps in ArcGIS 10.4 software. Considering the classified forest class, fragmentation in the forest area was grouped into different categories of fragmentation using the Landscape Fragmentation Tool (LFT v 2.0). The distribution of the perforated category has tremendously increased in 2020 from 1991. The outcome of the present study will help to understand the inherent forest vulnerability and to adopt sustainable management strategies for forest and agriculture ecosystems in the hill landscape.