Ensemble data assimilation methods for improving river water quality forecasting accuracy.

River water quality is one of the main challenges that societies face during the 21st century. Accurate and reliable real-time prediction of water quality is an effective adaptation measure to counteract water quality issues such as accidental spill and harmful algae blooms. To improve accuracy and skill of water quality forecasts along the Yeongsan River in South Korea three different ensemble data assimilation (DA) methods have been investigated: the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and two related algorithms (Dud-EnKF and EnKF-GS) that offer either possibilities to improve initial conditions for non-linear models or reduce computation time (important for real-time forecasting) by using a (smaller) time-lagged ensemble to estimate the Kalman gain. Twin experiments, assimilating synthetic observations of three algae species and phosphate concentrations, with relatively small ensemble sizes showed that all three DA methods improved forecast accuracy and skill with only subtle difference between the methods. They all improved the model accuracy at downstream locations with very similar performances but due to spurious correlation, the accuracy at upstream locations was somewhat deteriorated. The experiments also showed no clear trend of improvement by increasing the ensemble size from 8 to 64. The real world experiments, assimilating real observations of three algae species and phosphate concentrations, showed that less improvement was achieved compared to the twin experiments. Further improvement of the model accuracy may be achieved with different state variable definitions, use of different perturbation and error modelling settings and/or better calibration of the deterministic water quality model.

Preoperative subclinical hypothyroidism in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of preoperative subclinical hypothyroidism on prognosis and on the tumour's clinicopathological features at initial diagnosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: 328 patients who underwent surgery for PTC between January 2001 and December 2006 were enrolled in this study. Of these, we compared 35 patients with preoperative subclinical hypothyroidism with 257 patients who were euthyroid before the operation, with respect to clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis. RESULTS: No significant differences were observed in tumour size, extrathyroidal extension, and multifocality between subclinical hypothyroidism and euthyroid patients. Patients with subclinical hypothyroidism had a considerably lower percentage of lymph node metastasis than did euthyroid patients (8.6% vs. 21.8%, p=0.068). Although preoperative subclinical hypothyroidism decreased the risk of lymph node metastasis at 0.313 of odds ratio in the multivariate analysis, its significance was not verified (95% confidence internal, 0.089-1.092; p=0.068). Patients with preoperative subclinical hypothyroidism tended to have a better prognosis than did preoperative euthyroid patients, for both recurrence (2.9% vs. 14.0%, p=0.099) and 7-year disease-free survival (97.1% vs. 87.8%, p=0.079), during the 82-month mean follow-up period. However, even as thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration increased, there were no consistent relationships observed between the TSH levels and the prognostic parameters. CONCLUSION: We could find neither a consistent positive nor a negative linear relationship between TSH levels and several prognostic parameters, indicating that subclinical hypothyroidism with elevated TSH is not an independent predictor of tumour aggressiveness and poor prognosis in PTC.