Improvement in mortality risk prediction after percutaneous coronary intervention through the addition of a "compassionate use" variable to the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI dataset: a study from the Massachusetts Angioplasty Registry.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the impact of adding novel elements to models predicting in-hospital mortality after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). BACKGROUND: Massachusetts mandated public reporting of hospital-specific PCI mortality in 2003. In 2006, a physician advisory group recommended adding to the prediction models 3 attributes not collected by the National Cardiovascular Data Registry instrument. These "compassionate use" (CU) features included coma on presentation, active hemodynamic support during PCI, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation at PCI initiation. METHODS: From October 2005 through September 2007, PCI was performed during 29,784 admissions in Massachusetts nonfederal hospitals. Of these, 5,588 involved patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or cardiogenic shock. Cases with CU criteria identified were adjudicated by trained physician reviewers. Regression models with and without the CU composite variable (presence of any of the 3 features) were compared using areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: Unadjusted mortality in this high-risk subset was 5.7%. Among these admissions, 96 (1.7%) had at least 1 CU feature, with 69.8% mortality. The adjusted odds ratio for in-hospital death for CU PCIs (vs. no CU criteria) was 27.3 (95% confidence interval: 14.5 to 47.6). Discrimination of the model improved after including CU, with areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves increasing from 0.87 to 0.90 (p < 0.01), while goodness of fit was preserved. CONCLUSIONS: A small proportion of patients at extreme risk of post-PCI mortality can be identified using pre-procedural factors not routinely collected, but that heighten predictive accuracy. Such improvements in model performance may result in greater confidence in reporting of risk-adjusted PCI outcomes.

Outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention among elderly patients in cardiogenic shock: a multicenter, decade-long experience.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics and hospital mortality rate for elderly patients in cardiogenic shock undergoing emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). BACKGROUND: Early revascularization for patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock is recommended for patients < 75 years of age. This age-restricted recommendation is based upon evidence that elderly shock patients undergoing early revascularization have extremely high hospital mortality rates. The real world mortality rate for elderly shock patients undergoing emergent PCI has not been determined. METHODS: We examined a decade-long experience in our prospective registry of consecutive PCIs in Northern New England to assess the generalizability of these findings. Characteristics and hospital mortality were compared for elderly ( 75 years old) versus non-elderly (< 75 years old) patients. Predictors of hospital survival were identified using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2000, a total of 310 out of 52,418 patients (0.59%) had PCI for cardiogenic shock, twenty-four percent of whom were elderly. Procedural characteristics were similar between the 2 groups. Independent predictors of mortality for both groups were older age and the absence of collaterals; during the stent era (1997 2000), significant predictors were lack of stent placement and diabetes mellitus. The mortality rate for elderly shock patients undergoing PCI was 46%, which is significantly less than previously reported in randomized clinical trials. CONCLUSION: Real world selection of elderly shock patients for PCI is possible with mortality rates far less than seen in randomized trials.

Plaque disruption and thrombus in Ambrose's angiographic coronary lesion types.

Lesion eccentricity with irregularities on coronary angiography is associated with ruptured plaques and thrombus based on postmortem and clinical angiographic studies. However, the predictive value of such angiographic markers of plaque disruption and thrombus remains to be determined in vivo. The purpose of this study was to establish whether Ambrose's angiographic coronary lesion types and other angiographic criteria predict the presence of disrupted plaques and thrombus using intracoronary angioscopy. Angioscopy was performed before angioplasty in 60 patients with various coronary syndromes and culprit lesions that were not totally occlusive. Lesions were classified angiographically according to Ambrose's criteria as concentric, type I and II eccentric, and multiple irregularities, or as complex or noncomplex, and then compared with the corresponding angioscopic findings. Disruption and/or thrombus were seen in 17 of 19 type II eccentric lesions and 21 of 23 angiographically complex lesions and had the highest positive predictive value to detect complicated atherosclerotic plaques (type II eccentric lesions: positive predictive value 89%, 95% confidence intervals 67% to 99%; complex lesions: 91%, 95% confidence intervals 72% to 99%). We conclude that Ambrose's type II eccentric stenoses and angiographically complex lesions are strongly associated with disrupted plaques and/or thrombus as assessed by angioscopy in patients and represent unstable plaque substrates.

Predicting vascular complications in percutaneous coronary interventions.

OBJECTIVES: Using a large, current, regional registry of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), we identified risk factors for postprocedure vascular complications and developed a scoring system to estimate individual patient risk. BACKGROUND: A vascular complication (access-site injury requiring treatment or bleeding requiring transfusion) is a potentially avoidable outcome of PCI. METHODS: Data were collected on 18,137 consecutive patients undergoing PCI in northern New England from January 1997 to December 1999. Multivariate regression was used to identify characteristics associated with vascular complications and to develop a scoring system to predict risk. RESULTS: The rate of vascular complication was 2.98% (541 cases). Variables associated with increased risk in the multivariate analysis included age >or=70, odds ratio (OR) 2.7, female sex (OR 2.4), body surface area <1.6 m(2) (OR 1.9), history of congestive heart failure (OR 1.4), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 1.5), renal failure (OR 1.9), lower extremity vascular disease (OR 1.4), bleeding disorder (OR 1.68), emergent priority (OR 2.3), myocardial infarction (OR 1.7), shock (1.86), >or=1 type B2 (OR 1.32) or type C (OR 1.7) lesions, 3-vessel PCI (OR 1.5), use of thienopyridines (OR 1.4) or use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors (OR 1.9). The model performed well in tests for significance, discrimination, and calibration. The scoring system captured 75% of actual vascular complications in its highest quintiles of predicted risk. CONCLUSION: Predicting the risk of post-PCI vascular complications is feasible. This information may be useful for clinical decision-making and institutional efforts at quality improvement.

Gender-related changes in the practice and outcomes of percutaneous coronary interventions in Northern New England from 1994 to 1999.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether the changing practice of interventional cardiology has been associated with improved outcomes for women, and how these outcomes compare with those for men. BACKGROUND: Previous work from the early 1990s suggested women are at a higher risk than men for adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). From 1994 to 1999 data were collected on 33,666 consecutive hospital admissions for a PCI in Northern New England. Multivariate models were used to adjust for differences in case-mix across year of procedure when comparing outcomes. Direct standardization was used to calculate adjusted rates. RESULTS: From 1994 to 1999, the case-mix worsened for both women and men, although women had more co-morbidities than did men throughout the period. Stent use increased over time (>75% in 1999). Concomitantly, the need for emergency coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) decreased significantly (p(trend) < or = 0.001; in 1999: 0.06% for women, 0.05% for men). Although the emergency CABG rates were higher for women at the beginning of the study, by the end, they were comparable (adjusted odds ratio 1.34, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 2.38, p = 0.315). The myocardial infarction (MI) rates decreased over time for both women (by 29.7%, p(trend) = 0.378) and men (by 37.6%, p(trend) = 0.009) and did not differ by gender. The mortality rates did not decrease significantly over time and were not significantly different between the genders (mean 1.21% for women, 1.06% for men; p = 0.096). CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent with the changing practice of PCI, and despite treating sicker patients, there have been important improvements in post-PCI CABG and MI rates for women, as well as for men. Unlike in earlier years, there are no longer significant differences in outcomes by gender.