Prognostic Model for Progradient Tuberculosis Course in HIV-Infected Children.

The aim of the study was to define independent predictors and create a prognostic model for the progradient course of tuberculosis in HIV-infected children. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The prospective observational study of tuberculosis cases of HIV-infected children under 15 years of age has been carried out over 2000-2014 using a continuous sampling method (n=65). Two observation groups were formed: the main group comprising children with a progradient (progressive) type of tuberculosis (n=37) and the comparison group of children with a regradient (regressive) type of the disease (n=28). The logistic regression method was used to create a prognostic model. The quality of model approximation was assessed using maximum likelihood function. Indicators of model goodness of fit are the coefficient of concordance (a permissible level of frequency disagreement is less than 20%) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: As a result of a paired comparative analysis based on 17 medico-biological, epidemiological and social signs, 11 statistically different parameters have been distinguished. On their basis, a functional prognostic model has been created including six independent predictors: flaws in children observation in the general medical network (b=23.962), absence of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination (b=20.404), fatal course of tuberculosis in the human source of infection (b=2.762), tuberculosis identification in children under 3 years of age (b=2.620), absence or low adherence to therapy of the latent tuberculosis infection before tuberculosis detection (b=1.859), marked or severe immunodeficiency (b=1.693). The degrees of the risk factors for the progradient tuberculosis course have been established at the following probability values (decile): at 0.3-0.4 the risk is minimal; at 0.5-1.0 the risk is high; at values of 0-0.2 there is no risk of the disease. Programs for quantitative and qualitative assessment of the risk of progradient tuberculosis course in children with HIV infection have been designed to facilitate the model use. CONCLUSION: The presented prognostic model is based on the analysis of the obligatory data in the diagnostic search making its use convenient at any stage of rendering medical aid to HIV-infected children.

[Sanitary-Epidemiological Status of Siberian Population (Medico-Demographical and Epidemiological Characteristics)].

Review on the problem of sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) was conducted based on literature data and authors own research in the period of 2002−2014. Authors provided broad information on the health and demographic and epidemiological characteristics of SFD population. SFD in comparison with other regions of the Russian Federation overcomes one of the most adverse situations including mortality rates from external causes. SFD population's infectious and somatic morbidity rates were analyzed. Analysis demonstrated that the situation relating to priority epidemiologically and socially important infections (HIV-infection, parenteral viral hepatitis, tuberculosis etc.) on the territory of the SFD remains tense. Authors provided information on the increase in the level of the actual for Siberian regions natural-foci tick-borne infections. Detailed analysis for the environment anthropogenic pollution impact for the epidemic, infectious and vaccine induced processes. Authors suggest that anthropogenic (biological) environmental pollution is one of the most important factors influencing the epidemiological welfare of the Siberian population. A new strategic direction in epidemiological research associated with the problem of comorbid diseases is planned.

[Manifestations of immune deficiency in children with perinatal HIV infection in the treatment dynamics].

Clinical and immunological parameters in the children with perinatal HIV infection were investigated in the dynamics of the long-term prospective observation. It was revealed, that all the HIV infected children had clinical signs of immunodeficiency and laboratory signs of combined damage of the immune system. The complex of therapeutic measures, including antiretroviral therapy, prevention of opportunistic and acute respiratory infections, rational immunotherapy to stimulate production of endogenous interferon and normalization of the balance of cytokines significantly reduced the frequency of the clinical manifestations of the infectious syndrome and improved the patients resistance to infections.