RESUMO
Prediction of the groundwater nitrate concentration is of utmost importance for pollution control and water resource management. This research aims to model the spatial groundwater nitrate concentration in the Marvdasht watershed, Iran, based on several artificial intelligence methods of support vector machine (SVM), Cubist, random forest (RF), and Bayesian artificial neural network (Baysia-ANN) machine learning models. For this purpose, 11 independent variables affecting groundwater nitrate changes include elevation, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, rainfall, piezometric depth, distance from the river, distance from residential, Sodium (Na), Potassium (K), and topographic wetness index (TWI) in the study area were prepared. Nitrate levels were also measured in 67 wells and used as a dependent variable for modeling. Data were divided into two categories of training (70%) and testing (30%) for modeling. The evaluation criteria coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the models used. The results of modeling the susceptibility of groundwater nitrate concentration showed that the RF (R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 4.24, NSE = 0.87) model is better than the other Cubist (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 5.18, NSE = 0.81), SVM (R2 = 0.74, RMSE = 6.07, NSE = 0.74), Bayesian-ANN (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 5.91, NSE = 0.75) models. The results of groundwater nitrate concentration zoning in the study area showed that the northern parts of the case study have the highest amount of nitrate, which is higher in these agricultural areas than in other areas. The most important cause of nitrate pollution in these areas is agriculture activities and the use of groundwater to irrigate these crops and the wells close to agricultural areas, which has led to the indiscriminate use of chemical fertilizers by irrigation or rainwater of these fertilizers is washed and penetrates groundwater and pollutes the aquifer.
RESUMO
The purpose of this research is to assess the spatial distribution of CO2 concentration during the growing seasons (April to September) in 2015 over Iran. The XCO2 data belonging to orbiting carbon observatory-2 (OCO-2) and eight environmental variables data consist of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), net primary productivity (NPP), land surface temperature (LST), leaf area index (LAI), air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and national land cover map were modeled by multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The values of R2 and RMSE indices show the good performance of the multi-layer perceptron model for monthly models. Based on sensitivity analysis results, land cover and wind direction had the most important role in the spatial distribution of XCO2. Also, the results revealed that the maximum values of XCO2 observed in the east, south east, and desert areas in central of Iran due to the lack of vegetation cover, lack of local wind current, and high temperature. The western, northwestern and northern regions of Iran have the minimum amounts of XCO2 because of existing valuable ecosystem such as Hyrcanian and Zagrous forests, rangeland, air currents, and low temperature. The findings of this study indicated that the manageable factors such as land cover and vegetation cover play very important roles in the spatial distribution of CO2 and finding carbon dioxide source and sink at national scale. Therefore, policymakers and managers by the logical management of these resources are able to control or even reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in different areas.
