Snowmelt contributions to discharge of the Ganges.

Himalayan headwaters supply large quantities of runoff derived from snowmelt and monsoon rainfall to the Ganges River. Actual snowmelt contribution to discharge in the Ganges remains conjectural under both present and future climatic conditions. As snowmelt is likely to be perturbed through climatic warming, four hydrological models, VIC, JULES, LPJmL and SWAT, appropriate for coupling with regional climate models, were used to provide a baseline estimate of snowmelt contribution to flow at seasonal and annual timescales. The models constrain estimates of snowmelt contributions to between 1% and 5% of overall basin runoff. Snowmelt is, however, significant in spring months, a period in which other sources of runoff are scarce.

Basin characteristics and nutrient losses: the EUROHARP catchment network perspective.

The EC-funded EUROHARP project studies the harmonisation of modelling tools to quantify nutrient losses from diffuse sources. This paper describes a set of study areas used in the project from geographical conditions, to land use and land management, geological and hydro-geological perspectives. The status of data availability throughout Europe in relation to the modelling requirements is presented. The relationships between the catchment characteristics and the nutrient export are investigated, using simple data available for all the catchments. In addition, this study also analyses the hydrological representativity of the time series utilised in the EUROHARP project.

Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface waters: an inter-comparison of predictions by catchment models of different complexity.

Nitrogen and phosphorus retention estimates in streams and standing water bodies were compared for four European catchments by a series of catchment-scale modelling tools of different complexity, ranging from a simple, equilibrium input-output type to dynamic, physical-based models: source apportionment, MONERIS, EveNFlow, TRK, SWAT, and NL-CAT. The four catchments represent diverse climate, hydrology, and nutrient loads from diffuse and point sources in Norway, the UK, Italy, and the Czech Republic. The models' retention values varied largely, with tendencies towards higher scatters for phosphorus than for nitrogen, and for catchments with lakes (Vansjø-Hobøl, Zelivka) compared to mostly or entirely lakeless catchments (Ouse or Enza, respectively). A comparison of retention values with the size of nutrient sources showed that the modelled nutrient export from diffuse sources was directly proportional to retention estimates, hence implying that the uncertainty in quantification of diffuse catchment sources of nutrients was also related to the uncertainty in nutrient retention determination. This study demonstrates that realistic modelling of nutrient export from large catchments is very difficult without a certain level of measured data. In particular, even complex process oriented models require information on the retention capabilities of water bodies within the receiving surface water system and on the nutrient export from micro-catchments representing the major types of diffuse sources to surface waters.

Comparative study of model prediction of diffuse nutrient losses in response to changes in agricultural practices.

This article presents a comparative study of modelled changes in nutrient losses from two European catchments caused by modifications in agricultural practices. The purpose was not to compare the actual models used, but rather to assess the uncertainties a manager may be faced with after receiving decision support from consultants using different models. Seven modelling teams were given the same data about two catchments and their management characteristics and were asked to model the same changes in management practices using the model of their own choice. This can potentially cause accumulated 'errors' due to differences in the modelling teams' interpretation of relevant processes and definitions of boundary conditions (inputs). The study was carried out within the framework of the EUROHARP project, which aimed at harmonising procedures for quantifying diffuse losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from agriculture. Models are important for assessing river basin management plans (RBMPs) as required e.g. under the EC Water Framework Directive and Action Plans under the EC Nitrates Directive. This article illustrates some challenges with respect to interpreting such modelling results. The selected management scenarios include changes in fertiliser application levels, changes in livestock numbers and changes in land-use and crop rotation systems. Seven models were applied for the same scenarios in the Enza catchment in Italy and the Zelivka catchment in the Czech Republic. All models had been calibrated and validated with respect to historical data of climatic conditions, water quality and discharge measurements. The modelling results reveal a variation in predicted effects of the management scenarios, causing different conclusions with respect to choice of best management practice for reducing nutrient losses. The study demonstrates that it is important that care is taken by modellers and involved decision makers throughout the entire modelling process, both with regard to a common understanding of the problem definition, understanding of boundary conditions, and uncertainty of outputs and interpretation of results.