Predator mass mortality events restructure food webs through trophic decoupling.

Predators have a key role in structuring ecosystems1-4. However, predator loss is accelerating globally4-6, and predator mass-mortality events7 (MMEs)-rapid large-scale die-offs-are now emblematic of the Anthropocene epoch6. Owing to their rare and unpredictable nature7, we lack an understanding of how MMEs immediately impact ecosystems. Past predator-removal studies2,3 may be insufficient to understand the ecological consequences of MMEs because, in nature, dead predators decompose in situ and generate a resource pulse8, which could alter ensuing ecosystem dynamics by temporarily enhancing productivity. Here we experimentally induce MMEs in tritrophic, freshwater lake food webs and report ecological dynamics that are distinct from predator losses2,3 or resource pulses9 alone, but that can be predicted from theory8. MMEs led to the proliferation of diverse consumer and producer communities resulting from weakened top-down predator control1-3 and stronger bottom-up effects through predator decomposition8. In contrast to predator removals alone, enhanced primary production after MMEs dampened the consumer community response. As a consequence, MMEs generated biomass dynamics that were most similar to those of undisturbed systems, indicating that they may be cryptic disturbances in nature. These biomass dynamics led to trophic decoupling, whereby the indirect beneficial effects of predators on primary producers are lost and later materialize as direct bottom-up effects that stimulate primary production amid intensified herbivory. These results reveal ecological signatures of MMEs and demonstrate the feasibility of forecasting novel ecological dynamics arising with intensifying global change.

Interactions between fitness components across the life cycle constrain competitor coexistence.

Numerous mechanisms can promote competitor coexistence. Yet, these mechanisms are often considered in isolation from one another. Consequently, whether multiple mechanisms shaping coexistence combine to promote or constrain species coexistence remains an open question. Here, we aim to understand how multiple mechanisms interact within and between life stages to determine frequency-dependent population growth, which has a key role stabilizing local competitor coexistence. We conducted field experiments in three lakes manipulating relative frequencies of two Enallagma damselfly species to evaluate demographic contributions of three mechanisms affecting different fitness components across the life cycle: the effect of resource competition on individual growth rate, predation shaping mortality rates, and mating harassment determining fecundity. We then used a demographic model that incorporates carry-over effects between life stages to decompose the relative effect of each fitness component generating frequency-dependent population growth. This decomposition showed that fitness components combined to increase population growth rates for one species when rare, but they combined to decrease population growth rates for the other species when rare, leading to predicted exclusion in most lakes. Because interactions between fitness components within and between life stages vary among populations, these results show that local coexistence is population specific. Moreover, we show that multiple mechanisms do not necessarily increase competitor coexistence, as they can also combine to yield exclusion. Identifying coexistence mechanisms in other systems will require greater focus on determining contributions of different fitness components across the life cycle shaping competitor coexistence in a way that captures the potential for population-level variation.

Resetting our expectations for parasites and their effects on species interactions: a meta-analysis.

Despite the ubiquitous nature of parasitism, how parasitism alters the outcome of host-species interactions such as competition, mutualism and predation remains unknown. Using a phylogenetically informed meta-analysis of 154 studies, we examined how the mean and variance in the outcomes of species interactions differed between parasitized and non-parasitized hosts. Overall, parasitism did not significantly affect the mean or variance of host-species interaction outcomes, nor did the shared evolutionary histories of hosts and parasites have an effect. Instead, there was considerable variation in outcomes, ranging from strongly detrimental to strongly beneficial for infected hosts. Trophically-transmitted parasites increased the negative effects of predation, parasites increased and decreased the negative effects of interspecific competition for parasitized and non-parasitized heterospecifics, respectively, and parasites had particularly strong negative effects on host species interactions in freshwater and marine habitats, yet were beneficial in terrestrial environments. Our results illuminate the diverse ways in which parasites modify critical linkages in ecological networks, implying that whether the cumulative effects of parasitism are considered detrimental depends not only on the interactions between hosts and their parasites but also on the many other interactions that hosts experience.

Parasitism shapes selection by drastically reducing host fitness and increasing host fitness variation.

Determining the effects of parasites on host reproduction is key to understanding how parasites affect the underpinnings of selection on hosts. Although infection is expected to be costly, reducing mean fitness, infection could also increase variation in fitness costs among hosts, both of which determine the potential for selection on hosts. To test these ideas, we used a phylogenetically informed meta-analysis of 118 studies to examine how changes in the mean and variance in the outcome of reproduction differed between parasitized and non-parasitized hosts. We found that parasites had severe negative effects on mean fitness, with parasitized hosts suffering reductions in fecundity, viability and mating success. Parasite infection also increased variance in reproduction, particularly fecundity and offspring viability. Surprisingly, parasites had similar effects on viability when either the male or female was parasitized. These results not only provide the first synthetic, comparative, and quantitative summary of the strong deleterious effects of parasites on host reproductive fitness, but also reveal a consistent role for parasites in shaping the opportunity for selection.

Environmental Conditions during Development Affect Sexual Selection through Trait-Fitness Relationships.

AbstractSexual selection can be shaped by spatial variation in environmental features among populations. Differences in sexual selection among populations generated through the effects of the environment could be shaped via four paths: differences in mean absolute fitness, differences in the means or variances of phenotypes, or differences in the absolute fitness-trait function relationship. Because sexual selection occurs only during the adult life stage, most studies have focused on identifying environmental features that influence these metrics of fitness and trait distributions among adults. However, these adult features could also be affected by environmental factors experienced in early life stages that then shape the trajectory for sexual selection during the adult life stage. Here we investigated how among-population variation in environmental conditions during the juvenile (larval) stage of two species of Enallagma damselflies shapes sexual selection on male body size. We found that environmental factors related to predation pressures, lake primary productivity, and habitat availability play a role in shaping spatial variation in sexual selection. This acts mainly through how the environment affects absolute fitness-body size associations, not spatial variation in mean fitness or body size means and variances. These results demonstrate that the underpinnings of sexual selection in the wild can arise from environmental conditions during prereproductive life stages.

When Ecology Fails: How Reproductive Interactions Promote Species Coexistence.

That species must differ ecologically is often viewed as a fundamental condition for their stable coexistence in biological communities. Yet, recent work has shown that ecologically equivalent species can coexist when reproductive interactions and sexual selection regulate population growth. Here, we review theoretical models and highlight empirical studies supporting a role for reproductive interactions in maintaining species diversity. We place reproductive interactions research within a burgeoning conceptual framework of coexistence theory, identify four key mechanisms in intra- and interspecific interactions within and between sexes, speculate on novel mechanisms, and suggest future research. Given the preponderance of sexual reproduction in nature, our review suggests that this is a neglected path towards explaining species diversity when traditional ecological explanations have failed.

On the Origin of Coexisting Species.

Speciation is frequently initiated but rarely completed, a phenomenon hypothesized to arise due to the failure of nascent lineages to persist. Although a failure to persist often has ecological causes, key gaps exist between ecological and evolutionary theories that, if filled, would clarify when and why speciation succeeds or fails. Here, we apply ecological coexistence theory to show how the alignment between different forms of niche opportunity and niche use shape the initiation, progression, and completion of speciation. Niche evolution may drive coexistence or competitive exclusion, and an ability to coexist ecologically may help or hinder speciation. Our perspective allows progress towards unifying the origin and maintenance of species diversity across the tree of life.

Selection on fruit traits is mediated by the interplay between frugivorous birds, fruit flies, parasitoid wasps and seed-dispersing ants.

Every organism on Earth must cope with a multitude of species interactions both directly and indirectly throughout its life cycle. However, how selection from multiple species occupying different trophic levels affects diffuse mutualisms has received little attention. As a result, how a given species amalgamates the combined effects of selection from multiple mutualists and antagonists to enhance its own fitness remains little understood. We investigated how multispecies interactions (frugivorous birds, ants, fruit flies and parasitoid wasps) generate selection on fruit traits in a seed dispersal mutualism. We used structural equation models to assess whether seed dispersers (frugivorous birds and ants) exerted phenotypic selection on fruit and seed traits in the spiny hackberry (Celtis ehrenbergiana), a fleshy-fruited tree, and how these selection regimes were influenced by fruit fly infestation and wasp parasitoidism levels. Birds exerted negative correlational selection on the combination of fruit crop size and mean seed weight, favouring either large crops with small seeds or small crops with large seeds. Parasitoids selected plants with higher fruit fly infestation levels, and fruit flies exerted positive directional selection on fruit size, which was positively correlated with seed weight. Therefore, higher parasitoidism indirectly correlated with higher plant fitness through increased bird fruit removal. In addition, ants exerted negative directional selection on mean seed weight. Our results show that strong selection on phenotypic traits may still arise in perceived diffuse species interactions. Overall, we emphasize the need to consider diverse direct and indirect partners to achieve a better understanding of the mechanisms driving phenotypic trait evolution in multispecies interactions.

Predators weaken prey intraspecific competition through phenotypic selection.

Predators have a key role shaping competitor dynamics in food webs. Perhaps the most obvious way this occurs is when predators reduce competitor densities. However, consumption could also generate phenotypic selection on prey that determines the strength of competition, thus coupling consumptive and trait-based effects of predators. In a mesocosm experiment simulating fish predation on damselflies, we found that selection against high damselfly activity rates - a phenotype mediating predation and competition - weakened the strength of density dependence in damselfly growth rates. A field experiment corroborated this finding and showed that increasing damselfly densities in lakes with high fish densities had limited effects on damselfly growth rates but generated a precipitous growth rate decline where fish densities were lower - a pattern expected because of spatial variation in selection imposed by predation. These results suggest that accounting for both consumption and selection is necessary to determine how predators regulate prey competitive interactions.

Disentangling ecologically equivalent from neutral species: The mechanisms of population regulation matter.

The neutral theory of biodiversity explored the structure of a community of ecologically equivalent species. Such species are expected to display community drift dynamics analogous to neutral alleles undergoing genetic drift. While entire communities of species are not ecologically equivalent, recent field experiments have documented the existence of guilds of such neutral species embedded in real food webs. What demographic outcomes of the interactions within and between species in these guilds are expected to produce ecological drift versus coexistence remains unclear. To address this issue, and guide empirical testing, we consider models of a guild of ecologically equivalent competitors feeding on a single resource to explore when community drift should manifest. We show that community drift dynamics only emerge when the density-dependent effects of each species on itself are identical to its density-dependent effects on every other guild member. In contrast, if each guild member directly limits itself more than it limits the abundance of other guild members, all species in the guild are coexisting, even though they all are ecologically equivalent with respect to their interactions with species outside the guild (i.e. resources, predators, mutualists). Hence, considering only interspecific ecological differences generating density dependence, and not fully accounting for the preponderance of mechanisms causing intraspecific density dependence, will provide an incomplete picture for segregating between neutrality and coexistence. We also identify critical experiments necessary to disentangle guilds of ecologically equivalent species from those experiencing ecological drift, as well as provide an overview of ways of incorporating a mechanistic basis into studies of species coexistence and neutrality. Identifying these characteristics, and the mechanistic basis underlying community structure, is not merely an exercise in clarifying the semantics of coexistence and neutral theories, but rather reflects key differences that must exist among community members in order to determine how and why communities are structured.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes.

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.

Bovine tuberculosis disturbs parasite functional trait composition in African buffalo.

Novel parasites can have wide-ranging impacts, not only on host populations, but also on the resident parasite community. Historically, impacts of novel parasites have been assessed by examining pairwise interactions between parasite species. However, parasite communities are complex networks of interacting species. Here we used multivariate taxonomic and trait-based approaches to determine how parasite community composition changed when African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) acquired an emerging disease, bovine tuberculosis (BTB). Both taxonomic and functional parasite richness increased significantly in animals that acquired BTB than in those that did not. Thus, the presence of BTB seems to catalyze extraordinary shifts in community composition. There were no differences in overall parasite taxonomic composition between infected and uninfected individuals, however. The trait-based analysis revealed an increase in direct-transmitted, quickly replicating parasites following BTB infection. This study demonstrates that trait-based approaches provide insight into parasite community dynamics in the context of emerging infections.

A framework for linking competitor ecological differences to coexistence.

Not all ecological differences among competing species affect their ability to locally coexist. Rather, the differences that promote stable coexistence can be those which cause each species to experience stronger intraspecific than interspecific competition. Recent approaches have established how to detect the demographic signature of these competitive effects, but alone they cannot elucidate the ecological differences among species that yield these patterns. Here, we present a unifying experimental and observational framework that identifies potential ecological differences among species shaping their responses to intra- and interspecific competition. We first describe a conceptual model establishing why the strength of intra- and interspecific competitive interactions should vary along environmental gradients related to species ecological differences. We then show how to apply the framework using Enallagma damselflies, a diverse group of predatory aquatic insects. To determine how species responded to intra- and interspecific competition along environmental gradients, we experimentally manipulated the relative abundances of three species and replicated this across five lakes which varied in environmental conditions affecting larval damselfly per capita growth and mortality rates-key vital rates regulating their populations. Results suggest Enallagma are ecologically differentiated in ways that in some communities can result in intraspecific competition exceeding interspecific competition. However, in many cases the opposite was true, or the effects of intra- and interspecific competition were equivalent via growth and mortality responses. Moreover, these effects tended to be weak and asymmetrical among competitors, which suggests that differential responses of larval growth and mortality to intra- and interspecific competition may not contribute strongly to the maintenance of Enallagma diversity. Different environmental factors appear to shape these demographic responses to competition, providing insight into the ecological mechanisms regulating damselfly assemblages. This framework can be broadly applied to identify the ecological differences among species that may promote coexistence, advancing knowledge of the mechanisms underlying coexistence and overcoming some limitations of purely phenomenological approaches.

An ecological and evolutionary perspective on species coexistence under global change.

Whether assemblages of insect species locally coexist or are only being slowly lost from communities remains an enduring question. Addressing this question is especially critical in the wake of global change, which is expected to reshuffle biological communities and create novel interspecific interactions. In reviewing studies of putative insect species coexistence, we find that few have demonstrated necessary criteria to conclude that species coexist. We also find that few integrate ecological and evolutionary perspectives towards understanding coexistence. Yet, both micro-evolutionary and macroevolutionary processes can play a critical role in shaping species coexistence mechanisms, especially in response to global change. We suggest that understanding how global change may affect the makeup of communities can be best achieved by developing a research program focused on the joint contribution of ecological and evolutionary processes.

Female mate preferences on high-dimensional shape variation for male species recognition traits.

Females in many animal species must discriminate between conspecific and heterospecific males when choosing mates. Such mating preferences that discriminate against heterospecifics may inadvertently also affect the mating success of conspecific males, particularly those with more extreme phenotypes. From this expectation, we hypothesized that female mate choice should cause Enallagma females (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) to discriminate against conspecific males with more extreme phenotypes of the claspers males use to grasp females while mating - the main feature of species mate recognition in these species. To test this, we compared cerci sizes and shapes between males that were captured while mating with females to males that were captured at the same time but not mating in three Enallagma species. In contrast to our hypothesis, we found only one of forty comparisons of shape variation that was consistent with females discriminating against males with more extreme cerci shapes. Instead, differences in cerci shape between mating and single males suggested that females displayed directional preferences on 1-4 aspects of cerci shape in two of the species in our samples. These results suggest that whereas some directional biases in mating based on cerci shape occur, the intraspecific phenotypic variation in male cerci size and shape is likely not large enough for females to express any significant incidental discrimination among conspecifics with more extreme shapes.

Tipping Points in Resource Abundance Drive Irreversible Changes in Community Structure.

Global climate change has made what were seemingly extraordinary environmental conditions, such as prolonged droughts, commonplace. One consequence of extreme environmental change is concomitant changes in resource abundance. How will such extreme resource changes impact biodiversity? We developed a trait-based consumer-resource model to examine how resource abundance affects the potential for adaptive evolution and coexistence among competitors. We found that moderate changes in resource abundance have little effect on trait evolution. However, when resource scarcities were sufficiently extreme, a critical transition-a tipping point-occurred, which caused consumer traits to diverge and restructured the community in a way that outlasted the scarcity. Therefore, even though traits can evolve in response to minor resource fluctuations, large environmental shifts may be necessary for producing long-lasting impacts on community structure. These results may also help to illuminate patterns of stasis frequently observed in nature, despite the considerable evidence demonstrating rapid evolutionary change.

Response to Comment on "Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection".

The comment by Myers-Smith and Myers focuses on three main points: (i) the lack of a mechanistic explanation for climate-selection relationships, (ii) the appropriateness of the climate data used in our analysis, and (iii) our focus on estimating climate-selection relationships across (rather than within) taxonomic groups. We address these critiques in our response.

What Are the Environmental Determinants of Phenotypic Selection? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.

Although many selection estimates have been published, the environmental factors that cause selection to vary in space and time have rarely been identified. One way to identify these factors is by experimentally manipulating the environment and measuring selection in each treatment. We compiled and analyzed selection estimates from experimental studies. First, we tested whether the effect of manipulating the environment on selection gradients depends on taxon, trait type, or fitness component. We found that the effect of manipulating the environment was larger when selection was measured on life-history traits or via survival. Second, we tested two predictions about the environmental factors that cause variation in selection. We found support for the prediction that variation in selection is more likely to be caused by environmental factors that have a large effect on mean fitness but not for the prediction that variation is more likely to be caused by biotic factors. Third, we compared selection gradients from experimental and observational studies. We found that selection varied more among treatments in experimental studies than among spatial and temporal replicates in observational studies, suggesting that experimental studies can detect relationships between environmental factors and selection that would not be apparent in observational studies.

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection.

Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation-natural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.

Adaptive evolution to novel predators facilitates the evolution of damselfly species range shifts.

Most species have evolved adaptations to reduce the chances of predation. In many cases, adaptations to coexist with one predator generate tradeoffs in the ability to live with other predators. Consequently, the ability to live with one predator may limit the geographic distributions of species, such that adaptive evolution to coexist with novel predators may facilitate range shifts. In a case study with Enallagma damselflies, we used a comparative phylogenetic approach to test the hypothesis that adaptive evolution to live with a novel predator facilitates range size shifts. Our results suggest that the evolution of Enallagma shifting from living in ancestral lakes with fish as top predators, to living in lakes with dragonflies as predators, may have facilitated an increase in their range sizes. This increased range size likely arose because lakes with dragonflies were widespread, but unavailable as a habitat throughout much of the evolutionary history of Enallagma because they were historically maladapted to coexist with dragonfly predators. Additionally, the traits that have evolved as defenses against dragonflies also likely enhanced damselfly dispersal abilities. While many factors underlie the evolutionary history of species ranges, these results suggest a role for the evolution of predator-prey interactions.