Common genetic variants do not predict recurrent events in coronary heart disease patients.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether genetic variants identified from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) strongly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), or a genetic risk score (GRS) derived from them, can help stratify risk of recurrent events in patients with CHD. METHODS: Study subjects were enrolled at the close-out of the LIPID randomised controlled trial of pravastatin vs placebo. Entry to the trial had required a history of acute coronary syndrome 3-36 months previously, and patients were in the trial for a mean of 36 months. Patients who consented to a blood sample were genotyped with a custom designed array chip with SNPs chosen from known CHD-associated loci identified in previous GWAS. We evaluated outcomes in these patients over the following 10 years. RESULTS: Over the 10-year follow-up of the cohort of 4932 patients, 1558 deaths, 898 cardiovascular deaths, 727 CHD deaths and 375 cancer deaths occurred. There were no significant associations between individual SNPs and outcomes before or after adjustment for confounding variables and for multiple testing. A previously validated 27 SNP GRS derived from SNPs with the strongest associations with CHD also did not show any independent association with recurrent major cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants based on individual single nucleotide polymorphisms strongly associated with coronary heart disease in genome wide association studies or an abbreviated genetic risk score derived from them did not help risk profiling in this well-characterised cohort with 10-year follow-up. Other approaches will be needed to incorporate genetic profiling into clinically relevant stratification of long-term risk of recurrent events in CHD patients.

Dose intensity in anthracycline-based chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer: mature results of the randomised clinical trial ANZ 9311.

PURPOSE: The separate impacts of dose and dose intensity of chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer remain uncertain. The primary objective of this trial was to compare a short, high-dose, intensive course of epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (EC) with a longer conventional dose regimen delivering the same total dose of chemotherapy. METHODS: This open label trial randomised 235 women with metastatic breast cancer to receive either high-dose epirubicin 150 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide 1500 mg/m2 with filgrastim support every 3 weeks for 3 cycles (HDEC) or standard dose epirubicin 75 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide 750 mg/m2 every 3 weeks for 6 cycles (SDEC). Primary outcomes were time to progression, overall survival and quality of life. RESULTS: In 118 patients allocated HDEC 90% of the planned dose was delivered, compared to 96% in the 117 participants allocated SDEC. There were no significant differences in the time to disease progression (5.7 vs. 5.8 months, P = 0.19) or overall survival (14.5 vs. 16.5 months, P = 0.29) between HDEC and SDEC, respectively. Patients on HDEC reported worse quality of life during therapy, but scores improved after completion to approximate those reported by patients allocated SDEC. Objective tumour response was recorded in 33 (28%) on HDEC and 42 patients (36%) on SDEC. HDEC produced more haematologic toxicity. CONCLUSION: For women with metastatic breast cancer, disease progression, survival or quality of life were no better with high-dose intensity compared to standard dose EC chemotherapy. Australian Clinical Trials Registry registration number ACTRN12605000478617.

Hope, optimism and survival in a randomised trial of chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Psychological responses to cancer are widely believed to affect survival. We investigated associations between hope, optimism, anxiety, depression, health utility and survival in patients starting first-line chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer. METHODS: Four hundred twenty-nine subjects with metastatic colorectal cancer in a randomised controlled trial of chemotherapy completed baseline questionnaires assessing the following: hopefulness, optimism, anxiety and depression and health utility. Hazard ratios (HRs) and P values were calculated with Cox models for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in univariable and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 31 months. Univariable analyses showed that OS was associated negatively with depression (HR 2.04, P < 0.001) and positively with health utility (HR 0.56, P < 0.001) and hopefulness (HR 0.75, P = 0.013). In multivariable analysis, OS was also associated negatively with depression (HR 1.72, P < 0.001) and positively with health utility (HR 0.73, P = 0.014), but not with optimism, anxiety or hopefulness. PFS was not associated with hope, optimism, anxiety or depression in any analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Depression and health utility, but not optimism, hope or anxiety, were associated with survival after controlling for known prognostic factors in patients with advanced colorectal cancer. Further research is required to understand the nature of the relationship between depression and survival. If a causal mechanism is identified, this may lead to interventional possibilities.

Epiregulin gene expression as a biomarker of benefit from cetuximab in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Anti-EGFR antibody, cetuximab, improves overall survival (OS) in K-ras wild-type chemotherapy-refractory colorectal cancer. Epidermal growth factor receptor ligand epiregulin (EREG) gene expression may further predict cetuximab benefit. METHODS: Tumour samples from a phase III clinical trial of cetuximab plus best supportive care (BSC) vs BSC alone (CO.17) were analysed for EREG mRNA gene expression. Predictive effects of high vs low EREG on OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were examined for treatment-biomarker interaction. RESULTS: Both EREG and K-ras status were ascertained in 385 (193 cetuximab, 192 BSC) tumour samples. Within the high EREG and K-ras wild-type status ('co-biomarker')-positive group (n=139, 36%), median PFS was 5.4 vs 1.9 months (hazard ratio (HR) 0.31; P<0.0001), and median OS was 9.8 vs 5.1 months (HR 0.43; P<0.001) for cetuximab vs BSC, respectively. In the rest (n=246, 64%), PFS (HR 0.82; P=0.12) and OS (HR 0.90; P=0.45) were not significantly different. Test for treatment interaction showed a larger cetuximab effect on OS (HR 0.52; P=0.007) and PFS (HR 0.49; P=0.001) in the co-biomarker-positive group. CONCLUSION: In pre-treated K-ras wild-type status colorectal cancer, patients with high EREG gene expression appear to benefit more from cetuximab therapy compared with low expression. Epiregulin as a selective biomarker requires further evaluation.

Final results of Australasian Gastrointestinal Trials Group ARCTIC study: an audit of raltitrexed for patients with cardiac toxicity induced by fluoropyrimidines.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac toxicity an uncommon but serious side-effect of some fluoropyrimides. Cardiac toxicity from raltitrexed is rarely reported. With this background, we initiated this study to investigate the incidence of cardiac events in patients who had switched to raltitrexed following cardiac toxicity from fluoropyrimidines (5-fluorouracil or capecitabine). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pharmacy records were used to identify patients receiving raltitrexed from January 2004 till March 2012. Medical records were then reviewed to confirm the use of raltitrexed after cardiac toxicity from 5-fluorouracil or capecitabine. The primary end point was the rate of further cardiac events after commencing raltitrexed. RESULTS: Forty-two patients were identified and the majority had colorectal cancer. Prior regimens included 5-fluorouracil ± leucovorin, capecitabine alone, FOLFOX, FOLFIRI, epirubicin/cisplatin/5-fluorouracil, and capecitabine/oxaliplatin. Seven patients (17%) had bolus 5-fluorouracil regimens, 26 patients (62%) had infusion 5-fluorouracil regimens, and 9 patients (21%) had capecitabine alone or in combination. Angina was the most common cardiac toxicity from 5-fluorouracil or capecitabine and usually occurred in the first or the second cycle. Four patients after their first cardiac event continued with the same 5-fluorouracil or capecitabine regimen with the addition of nitrates and calcium antagonists but still had further cardiac events. After changing to raltitrexed, either as a single agent or a continuing combination regimen, no patients experienced further cardiac toxicity. CONCLUSION: Raltitrexed is associated with no significant cardiac toxicity in patients who have experienced prior cardiac toxicity from 5-fluorouracil or capecitabine. Raltitrexed, alone or in combination with oxaliplatin or irinotecan, provides a safe option in terms of cardiac toxicity for such patients.

A prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer have variable prognosis and survival. We extend previous work on prediction of progression-free survival by developing a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in these patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The nomogram was developed using data from the CAELYX in Platinum-Sensitive Ovarian Patients (CALYPSO) trial. Multivariate proportional hazards models were generated based on pre-treatment characteristics to develop a nomogram that classifies patient prognosis based on OS outcome. We also developed two simpler models with fewer variables and conducted model validations in independent datasets from AGO-OVAR Study 2.5 and ICON 4. We compare the performance of the nomogram with the simpler models by examining the differences in the C-statistics and net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: The nomogram included six significant predictors: interval from last platinum chemotherapy, performance status, size of the largest tumour, CA-125, haemoglobin and the number of organ sites of metastasis (C-statistic 0.67; 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.69). Among the CALPYSO patients, the median OS for good, intermediate and poor prognosis groups was 56.2, 31.0 and 20.8 months, respectively. When CA-125 was not included in the model, the C-statistics were 0.65 (CALYPSO) and 0.64 (AGO-OVAR 2.5). A simpler model (interval from last platinum chemotherapy, performance status and CA-125) produced a significant decrease of the C-statistic (0.63) and NRI (26.4%, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram with six pre-treatment characteristics improves OS prediction in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer and is superior to models with fewer prognostic factors or platinum chemotherapy free interval alone. With independent validation, this nomogram could potentially be useful for improved stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

Bevacizumab is equally effective and no more toxic in elderly patients with advanced colorectal cancer: a subgroup analysis from the AGITG MAX trial: an international randomised controlled trial of Capecitabine, Bevacizumab and Mitomycin C.

BACKGROUND: In an ageing population, a greater proportion of geriatric patients will be considered for systemic chemotherapy. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignancy and will be a major health issue in geriatrics. We used the MAX population to investigate whether age affected the improved outcome found in CRC when bevacizumab is added to capecitabine chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: MAX, a three arm study of Capecitabine (C) versus CBevacizumab (CB) versus CBMitomycin C (CBM), found an improvement in progression-free survival (PFS), with addition of B [+/- mitomycin C (MMC)] to C. This analysis assesses the effect of adding B (+/- MMC) to C on PFS, overall survival (OS), response rate (RR), toxicity and dose intensity in geriatric patients (age ≥ 75 years). RESULTS: Ninety-nine patients (21%) were aged 75-86 years. Baseline characteristics were well balanced. Eighty-eight per cent commenced C at the lower optional dose of 2000 mg/m(2)/day; days 1-14, q21 (61% for <75 years) and 88% were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0-1. Co-morbidities were as expected in this population. The addition of B significantly improved PFS in geriatric patients(C 5.8 months versus CB 8.8 months, Hazard ratio (HR) 0.65 and C versus CBM 10.4 months HR 0.38). The interaction test for OS, RR and PFS revealed no impact of age. Dose intensity was maintained >90% in all patients. There were no major differences in toxicity patterns between age cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Addition of B to C significantly improved PFS in this geriatric population, with similar benefits to those aged <75 years. Treatment was well tolerated with no signal of increased toxicity (including thromboembolism) when compared with those aged <75 years.

Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics. RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities. CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

Carboplatin-paclitaxel-induced leukopenia and neuropathy predict progression-free survival in recurrent ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: We assess the prognostic value of chemotherapy-induced leukopenia and sensory neuropathy in the CALYPSO trial patients treated with carboplatin-paclitaxel (CP) or carboplatin-liposomal doxorubicin (CPLD). METHODS: We performed a landmark analysis at first month after randomisation to correlate leukopenia (nadir white blood cell <4.0 × 10(9) per litre or severe infection) during cycle 1 of chemotherapy with progression-free survival (PFS). Using time-dependent proportional-hazards models, we also investigated the association between neuropathy and PFS. RESULTS: Of 608 patients with nadir blood and did not receive growth factors, 72% (CP=70%, CPLD=73%) had leukopenia. Leukopenia was prognostic for PFS in those receiving CP (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.66, P=0.01). Carboplatin-liposomal doxorubicin was more effective than CP in patients without leukopenia (aHR 0.51, P=0.001), but not those experiencing leukopenia (aHR 0.93, P=0.54; interaction P=0.008).Of 949 patients, 32% (CP=62%, CPLD=28%) reported neuropathy during landmark. Neuropathy was prognostic for PFS in the CP group only (aHR 0.77, P=0.02). Carboplatin-liposomal doxorubicin appeared to be more effective than CP among patients without neuropathy (aHR 0.70, P<0.0001), but not those with neuropathy (aHR 0.96, P=0.81; interaction P=0.15). CONCLUSION: First-cycle leukopenia and neuropathy were prognostic for patients treated with CP. Efficacy of CP treatment was similar to CPLD in patients who developed leukopenia. These findings support further research to understand the mechanisms of treatment-related toxicity.

A nomogram to predict survival time in women starting first-line chemotherapy for advanced breast cancer.

Women starting first-line chemotherapy for advanced breast cancer have differing baseline characteristics and survival times. We sought to develop and validate a pragmatic prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) by using available clinical and laboratory data. The prognostic model was developed in a training cohort (n=693) from two first-line chemotherapy trials (ANZ8101 and ANZ8614) and validated in two other trials (ANZ0001 and ANZ9311) with 324 and 233 patients, respectively. The proportional-hazards model was constructed from pretreatment demographic and disease characteristics. Patients were classified into good (score <88), medium (88-157), and poor (>157) prognostic groups. A nomogram was constructed (n=1250) from the combined datasets of all four trials, based on the predictors identified in the training cohort. The nomogram predicted OS with a concordance index of 0.65 (95%CI, 0.62-0.67). Factors in the nomogram were age, performance status, estrogen receptor status, number of involved organs (lung, liver and brain), hemoglobin concentration, neutrophil count, and serum alkaline phosphatase. The median survival for good, medium, and poor prognosis was 15.4 months (95%CI, 12.7-19.1), 10.2 months (95%CI, 9.0-11.6), and 6.1 months (95%CI, 4.4-6.7), respectively. The actual and model-predicted probabilities of 18-month survival agreed well, after recalibration for the new baseline survival functions for each validation cohort. A nomogram combining seven readily available baseline characteristics enabled stratification of advanced breast cancer patients into three groups with significantly different survival times. This nomogram could be useful for individualising treatment and for stratifying patients in future randomized trials.

Risk of arterial thromboembolic events in patients with advanced colorectal cancer receiving bevacizumab.

BACKGROUND: Bevacizumab is an antiangiogenic mAb with efficacy against several cancers, but it is associated with risk of arterial thromboembolism (ATE). Further data are needed to determine the safety of bevacizumab. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We recorded grade 3, 4, or 5 ATE events and other data (including age, baseline cardiovascular risk factors, history of ATE, and aspirin use) from 471 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer in the MAX (Mitomycin, Avastin, Xeloda) trial of capecitabine monotherapy versus capecitabine with bevacizumab with or without mitomycin C. RESULTS: Bevacizumab-treated patients had 12 grade 3, 4, or 5 ATEs (3.8% incidence). ATEs occurred in 2.1% of patients >65 years, 5% of those with a history of ATE, and 5% of those with cardiac risk factors. Age, history of ATE, or vascular risk factors did not increase risk. Aspirin users had a higher incidence than nonusers (8.9% versus 2.7%) but had higher rates of vascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Bevacizumab was associated with a modestly higher risk of ATE, but safety was not significantly worse in older patients or patients with a history of ATE or vascular risk factors. The effect of aspirin in preventing ATE in patients receiving bevacizumab could not be determined from this study.

Randomized cross-over trial comparing inpatient and outpatient administration of high-dose cisplatin.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Treatment with high-dose cisplatin (HDC) previously required inpatient (IP) admission with overnight hospitalization, but recently practice has shifted to outpatient (OP) therapy. We aimed to determine whether it is preferable to give HDC as an IP or OP using a two-period cross-over trial. METHODS: Eligible patients were starting chemotherapy with ≥2 cycles of HDC (≥100 mg/dose) and were suitable for OP treatment. All patients received an IP cycle and OP cycle: the order was randomly allocated. Pre-hydration, anti-emetics and chemotherapy were identical for IP and OP. Post-hydration varied by group (3 L normal saline (NS) for IP, 2 L NS for OP). The primary outcome was patient preference for IP versus OP treatment. Secondary outcomes included aspects of health-related quality of life, adverse events (dose delays and reductions, elevated creatinine and unplanned readmissions) and resource use. RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients were randomized, 53 completed two cycles of HDC. Most patients preferred OP treatment (36 vs 13, P = 0.002). There were no significant differences in patients' ratings of nausea, vomiting, fatigue, anxiety, depression or overall quality of life. Adverse events were few and unrelated to IP versus OP treatment. Nursing time was longer for IP than OP (163 vs 104 min, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: OP treatment was preferred by most patients, appeared safe and used less resources.

Effects of fenofibrate on renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Fenofibrate caused an acute, sustained plasma creatinine increase in the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) and Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) studies. We assessed fenofibrate's renal effects overall and in a FIELD washout sub-study. METHODS: Type 2 diabetic patients (n = 9,795) aged 50 to 75 years were randomly assigned to fenofibrate (n = 4,895) or placebo (n = 4,900) for 5 years, after 6 weeks fenofibrate run-in. Albuminuria (urinary albumin/creatinine ratio measured at baseline, year 2 and close-out) and estimated GFR, measured four to six monthly according to the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study, were pre-specified endpoints. Plasma creatinine was re-measured 8 weeks after treatment cessation at close-out (washout sub-study, n = 661). Analysis was by intention-to-treat. RESULTS: During fenofibrate run-in, plasma creatinine increased by 10.0 µmol/l (p < 0.001), but quickly reversed on placebo assignment. It remained higher on fenofibrate than on placebo, but the chronic rise was slower (1.62 vs 1.89 µmol/l annually, p = 0.01), with less estimated GFR loss (1.19 vs 2.03 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2) annually, p < 0.001). After washout, estimated GFR had fallen less from baseline on fenofibrate (1.9 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2), p = 0.065) than on placebo (6.9 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2), p < 0.001), sparing 5.0 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2) (95% CI 2.3-7.7, p < 0.001). Greater preservation of estimated GFR with fenofibrate was observed with baseline hypertriacylglycerolaemia (n = 169 vs 491 without) alone, or combined with low HDL-cholesterol (n = 140 vs 520 without) and reductions of ≥ 0.48 mmol/l in triacylglycerol over the active run-in period (pre-randomisation) (n = 356 vs 303 without). Fenofibrate reduced urine albumin concentrations and hence albumin/creatinine ratio by 24% vs 11% (p < 0.001; mean difference 14% [95% CI 9-18]; p < 0.001), with 14% less progression and 18% more albuminuria regression (p < 0.001) than in participants on placebo. End-stage renal event frequency was similar (n = 21 vs 26, p = 0.48). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Fenofibrate reduced albuminuria and slowed estimated GFR loss over 5 years, despite initially and reversibly increasing plasma creatinine. Fenofibrate may delay albuminuria and GFR impairment in type 2 diabetes patients. Confirmatory studies are merited. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN64783481.

Self-reported health-related quality of life is an independent predictor of chemotherapy treatment benefit and toxicity in women with advanced breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Baseline health-related quality of life (QL) is associated with survival in advanced breast cancer. We sought to identify patients who were less likely to respond to chemotherapy and at greater risk of toxicity on the basis of their QL. METHODS: We used data from three advanced breast cancer trials in which patients (n=378) were treated with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and 5-fluouracil. Patients self-rated their QL using LASA scales for physical well-being (PWB), mood, pain, nausea/vomiting, appetite and overall QL. Multivariable regression models were constructed to compare overall survival (OS), objective tumour response (OTR), adverse events (AEs) and weight loss according to grouped QL scores. RESULTS: Physical well-being, mood, appetite and overall QL were significant univariable predictors of OS. Physical well-being and appetite remained significant after adjustment for baseline biomedical factors. Poor PWB was associated with lower OTR (odds ratio (OR)=0.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.09-0.51), higher risk of non-haematological AEs (OR=3.26, 95% CI 1.49-7.15) and greater risk of weight loss (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.12-5.01) compared with good PWB. CONCLUSION: In women with advanced breast cancer, PWB and appetite are predictors of chemotherapy response and toxicity as well as survival. Quality of life should be a routine clinical assessment to guide patient selection for chemotherapy and for stratification of patients in clinical trials.

Historical cross-trial comparisons for competing treatments in advanced breast cancer--an empirical analysis of bias.

PURPOSE: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provide optimal evidence to assess the benefits of new treatments. However, clinicians routinely rely on cross-trial comparisons to assess competing treatments when head-to-head randomised comparisons are unavailable. We investigate the validity of cross-trial comparisons using individual patient data (IPD) where patients received the same treatment protocol. We also examine the extent to which statistical adjustment for baseline characteristics can account for inter-trial differences in outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used pooled IPD of 378 women with advanced breast cancer assigned to oral cyclophosphamide, intravenous methotrexate and 5-fluorouracil (CMF) in the control arms of three first-line treatment RCTs (ANZ8101, ANZ8614 and ANZ0001) conducted between 1982 and 2001. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) across trials. Proportional hazard models were constructed to estimate the hazard rates across trials after adjustment for baseline characteristics. RESULTS: The distribution of baseline characteristics varied across trials. There was a statistically significant difference in survival among women treated with CMF in these trials (logrank p=0.009). The median OS were 17.7, 10.3 and 10.1 months for 0001, 8101 and 8614, respectively. The hazard ratios for survival, adjusted for baseline characteristics differences, were 1.44 (8614) and 1.45 (8101) compared to 0001 (p=0.03). PFS did not differ across trials (logrank p=0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Caution should be exercised when interpreting results from historical cross-trial comparisons even if the adjustment of baseline prognostic characteristics can be performed. Cross-trial comparisons have some role in hypothesis-generating, identifying and prioritising promising treatments for further investigation; however RCTs are still essential to guide sound clinical practice.

Effect of fenofibrate on the need for laser treatment for diabetic retinopathy (FIELD study): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Laser treatment for diabetic retinopathy is often associated with visual field reduction and other ocular side-effects. Our aim was to assess whether long-term lipid-lowering therapy with fenofibrate could reduce the progression of retinopathy and the need for laser treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study was a multinational randomised trial of 9795 patients aged 50-75 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive fenofibrate 200 mg/day (n=4895) or matching placebo (n=4900). At each clinic visit, information concerning laser treatment for diabetic retinopathy-a prespecified tertiary endpoint of the main study-was gathered. Adjudication by ophthalmologists masked to treatment allocation defined instances of laser treatment for macular oedema, proliferative retinopathy, or other eye conditions. In a substudy of 1012 patients, standardised retinal photography was done and photographs graded with Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) criteria to determine the cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy and its component lesions. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN64783481. FINDINGS: Laser treatment was needed more frequently in participants with poorer glycaemic or blood pressure control than in those with good control of these factors, and in those with a greater burden of clinical microvascular disease, but the need for such treatment was not affected by plasma lipid concentrations. The requirement for first laser treatment for all retinopathy was significantly lower in the fenofibrate group than in the placebo group (164 [3.4%] patients on fenofibrate vs 238 [4.9%] on placebo; hazard ratio [HR] 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.84; p=0.0002; absolute risk reduction 1.5% [0.7-2.3]). In the ophthalmology substudy, the primary endpoint of 2-step progression of retinopathy grade did not differ significantly between the two groups overall (46 [9.6%] patients on fenofibrate vs 57 [12.3%] on placebo; p=0.19) or in the subset of patients without pre-existing retinopathy (43 [11.4%] vs 43 [11.7%]; p=0.87). By contrast, in patients with pre-existing retinopathy, significantly fewer patients on fenofibrate had a 2-step progression than did those on placebo (three [3.1%] patients vs 14 [14.6%]; p=0.004). An exploratory composite endpoint of 2-step progression of retinopathy grade, macular oedema, or laser treatments was significantly lower in the fenofibrate group than in the placebo group (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.47-0.94; p=0.022). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with fenofibrate in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus reduces the need for laser treatment for diabetic retinopathy, although the mechanism of this effect does not seem to be related to plasma concentrations of lipids.

Variations in the use of emergency PCI for the treatment of re-infarction following intravenous fibrinolytic therapy: impact on outcomes in HERO-2.

BACKGROUND: Patients who suffer re-infarction during initial hospitalization for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have decreased survival compared to patients without re-infarction, so treatment of re-infarction may influence survival. METHODS AND RESULTS: To determine whether the utilization of reperfusion therapies varied within 12 h of re-infarction and was associated with 30-day mortality, we studied 552 patients with re-infarction of 17,073 patients with STEMI enrolled in HERO-2 in five regions (Russia, Eastern Europe, Western Countries, Asia, and Latin America). Patients presenting within 6 h of symptom-onset were randomized to receive either bivalirudin or unfractionated heparin intravenously just prior to streptokinase. Re-infarction occurred in 2.8 and 3.6% of bivalirudin and heparin treated patients, respectively (P = 0.004), but treatment assignment did not influence mortality after re-infarction. Patients with re-infarction had a higher 30-day mortality than those without re-infarction (24 vs. 10%; P < 0.001 by Cox model). Within 12 h of re-infarction, fibrinolytic therapy was administered to 12.0 and 8.2% underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); these two treatments were more frequently utilized in patients from Western countries (n = 112), compared to patients from other countries (n = 440) (34.8 and 16.1% compared to 6.1 and 6.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). Mortality was 15% in patients receiving reperfusion therapy for re-infarction and 27% for those with conservative management, hazard ratio (HR) 0.53 (95% CI 0.32-0.88), P = 0.01. In multiple Cox regression analysis which included adjustment for clinical variables and randomized treatment assignment, 30-day mortality after re-infarction varied by region (highest Latin America 29%, lowest Western countries 15%; P = 0.01). Other independent prognostic factors included age, time from randomization to re-infarction, and Killip class at randomization. The HR for PCI treatment of re-infarction was 0.18 [(95% CI 0.04-0.76), P = 0.02] in analyses which excluded deaths within 12 h. CONCLUSION: Treatment of re-infarction with reperfusion therapies was markedly under-utilized, especially in non-western countries. PCI for re-infarction, in particular, was associated with a lower 30-day mortality, which may reflect both patient selection and effects of treatment.

Disarming the guarded prognosis: predicting survival in newly referred patients with incurable cancer.

People affected by cancer want information about their prognosis but clinicians have trouble estimating and talking about it. We sought to determine the nature and accuracy of medical oncologists' estimates of life expectancy in newly referred patients with incurable cancer. With reference to each patient, medical oncologists estimated how long they thought 90, 50, and 10% of similar patients would live. These proportions were chosen to reflect worst case, predicted, and best case scenarios suitable for discussions. After a median follow-up of 35 months, 86 of the 102 patients had died with an observed median survival of 12 months. Oncologists' estimates of each patient's worst case, predicted and best case scenarios were well-calibrated: 10% of patients lived for fewer months than estimated for the worst 10% of similar patients; 50% lived for at least as long as estimated for 50% of similar patients (predicted survival), and 17% lived for more months than estimated for the best 10% of similar patients. Oncologists' estimates of each patient's predicted survival were imprecise: 29% were within 0.67-1.33 times the patient's actual survival, 35% were too optimistic (>1.33 times the actual survival), and 39% were too pessimistic (<0.67 times the actual survival). The proportions of patients with actual survival times bounded by simple multiples of their predicted survival were as follows: 61% between half to double their predicted, 6% at least three to four times their predicted, and 4% no more than 1/6 of their predicted; similar to the proportions in an exponential distribution (about 50%, 10% and 10% respectively). Ranges based on simple multiples of the predicted survival time appropriately convey prognosis and its uncertainty in newly referred people with incurable cancer.

Effects of long-term fenofibrate therapy on cardiovascular events in 9795 people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (the FIELD study): randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, partly owing to dyslipidaemia, which can be amenable to fibrate therapy. We designed the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study to assess the effect of fenofibrate on cardiovascular disease events in these patients. METHODS: We did a multinational, randomised controlled trial with 9795 participants aged 50-75 years, with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and not taking statin therapy at study entry. After a placebo and a fenofibrate run-in phase, we randomly assigned patients (2131 with previous cardiovascular disease and 7664 without) with a total-cholesterol concentration of 3.0-6.5 mmol/L and a total-cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol ratio of 4.0 or more or plasma triglyceride of 1.0-5.0 mmol/L to micronised fenofibrate 200 mg daily (n=4895) or matching placebo (n=4900). Our primary outcome was coronary events (coronary heart disease death or non-fatal myocardial infarction); the outcome for prespecified subgroup analyses was total cardiovascular events (the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary and carotid revascularisation). Analysis was by intention to treat. The study was prospectively registered (number ISRCTN 64783481). FINDINGS: Vital status was confirmed on all but 22 patients. Averaged over the 5 years' study duration, similar proportions in each group discontinued study medication (10% placebo vs 11% fenofibrate) and more patients allocated placebo (17%) than fenofibrate (8%; p<0.0001) commenced other lipid treatments, predominantly statins. 5.9% (n=288) of patients on placebo and 5.2% (n=256) of those on fenofibrate had a coronary event (relative reduction of 11%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.89, 95% CI 0.75-1.05; p=0.16). This finding corresponds to a significant 24% reduction in non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.76, 0.62-0.94; p=0.010) and a non-significant increase in coronary heart disease mortality (1.19, 0.90-1.57; p=0.22). Total cardiovascular disease events were significantly reduced from 13.9% to 12.5% (0.89, 0.80-0.99; p=0.035). This finding included a 21% reduction in coronary revascularisation (0.79, 0.68-0.93; p=0.003). Total mortality was 6.6% in the placebo group and 7.3% in the fenofibrate group (p=0.18). Fenofibrate was associated with less albuminuria progression (p=0.002), and less retinopathy needing laser treatment (5.2%vs 3.6%, p=0.0003). There was a slight increase in pancreatitis (0.5%vs 0.8%, p=0.031) and pulmonary embolism (0.7%vs 1.1%, p=0.022), but no other significant adverse effects. INTERPRETATION: Fenofibrate did not significantly reduce the risk of the primary outcome of coronary events. It did reduce total cardiovascular events, mainly due to fewer non-fatal myocardial infarctions and revascularisations. The higher rate of starting statin therapy in patients allocated placebo might have masked a moderately larger treatment benefit.