Predation strongly limits demography of a keystone migratory herbivore in a recovering transfrontier ecosystem.

Large herbivore migrations are imperiled globally; however the factors limiting a population across its migratory range are typically poorly understood. Zambia's Greater Liuwa Ecosystem (GLE) contains one of the largest remaining blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus taurinus) migrations, yet the population structure, vital rates, and limiting factors are virtually unknown. We conducted a long-term demographic study of GLE wildebeest from 2012 to 2019 of 107 collared adult females and their calves, 7352 herd observations, 12 aerial population surveys, and concurrent carnivore studies. We applied methods of vital rate estimation and survival analysis within a Bayesian estimation framework. From herd composition observations, we estimated rates of fecundity, first-year survival, and recruitment as 68%, 56%, and 38% respectively, with pronounced interannual variation. Similar rates were estimated from calf-detections with collared cows. Adult survival rates declined steadily from 91% at age 2 years to 61% at age 10 years thereafter dropping more sharply to 2% at age 16 years. Predation, particularly by spotted hyena, was the predominant cause of death for all wildebeest ages and focused on older animals. Starvation only accounted for 0.8% of all unbiased known natural causes of death. Mortality risk differed substantially between wet and dry season ranges, reflecting strong spatio-temporal differences in habitat and predator densities. There was substantial evidence that mortality risk to adults was 27% higher in the wet season, and strong evidence that it was 45% higher in the migratory range where predator density was highest. The estimated vital rates were internally consistent, predicting a stable population trajectory consistent with aerial estimates. From essentially zero knowledge of GLE wildebeest dynamics, this work provides vital rates, age structure, limiting factors, and a plausible mechanism for the migratory tendency, and a robust model-based foundation to evaluate the effects of potential restrictions in migratory range, climate change, predator-prey dynamics, and poaching.

African wild dog movements show contrasting responses to long and short term risk of encountering lions: analysis using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models.

BACKGROUND: Prey depletion is a threat to the world's large carnivores, and is likely to affect subordinate competitors within the large carnivore guild disproportionately. African lions limit African wild dog populations through interference competition and intraguild predation. When lion density is reduced as a result of prey depletion, wild dogs are not competitively released, and their population density remains low. Research examining distributions has demonstrated spatial avoidance of lions by wild dogs, but the effects of lions on patterns of movement have not been tested. Movement is one of the most energetically costly activities for many species and is particularly costly for cursorial hunters like wild dogs. Therefore, testing how top-down, bottom-up, and anthropogenic variables affect movement patterns can provide insight into mechanisms that limit wild dogs (and other subordinate competitors) in resource-depleted ecosystems. METHODS: We measured movement rates using the motion variance from dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMMs) fit to data from GPS-collared wild dogs, then used a generalized linear model to test for effects on movement of predation risk from lions, predictors of prey density, and anthropogenic and seasonal variables. RESULTS: Wild dogs proactively reduced movement in areas with high lion density, but reactively increased movement when lions were immediately nearby. Predictors of prey density had consistently weaker effects on movement than lions did, but movements were reduced in the wet season and when dependent offspring were present. CONCLUSION: Wild dogs alter their patterns of movement in response to lions in ways that are likely to have important energetic consequences. Our results support the recent suggestion that competitive limitation of wild dogs by lions remains strong in ecosystems where lion and wild dog densities are both low as a result of anthropogenic prey depletion. Our results reinforce an emerging pattern that movements often show contrasting responses to long-term and short-term variation in predation risk.

Serological Evidence of Filovirus Infection in Nonhuman Primates in Zambia.

Ebolaviruses and marburgviruses are filoviruses that are known to cause severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs). While some bat species are suspected to be natural reservoirs of these filoviruses, wild NHPs often act as intermediate hosts for viral transmission to humans. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we screened two NHP species, wild baboons and vervet monkeys captured in Zambia, for their serum IgG antibodies specific to the envelope glycoproteins of filoviruses. From 243 samples tested, 39 NHPs (16%) were found to be seropositive either for ebolaviruses or marburgviruses with endpoint antibody titers ranging from 100 to 25,600. Interestingly, antibodies reactive to Reston virus, which is found only in Asia, were detected in both NHP species. There was a significant difference in the seropositivity for the marburgvirus antigen between the two NHP species, with baboons having a higher positive rate. These results suggest that wild NHPs in Zambia might be nonlethally exposed to these filoviruses, and this emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of filovirus infection in wild animals to better understand the ecology of filoviruses and to assess potential risks of outbreaks in humans in previously nonendemic countries.

Response of lion demography and dynamics to the loss of preferred larger prey.

Large carnivores are experiencing range contraction and population declines globally. Prey depletion due to illegal offtake is considered a major contributor, but the effects of prey depletion on large carnivore demography are rarely tested. We measured African lion density and tested the factors that affect survival using mark-recapture models fit to six years of data from known individuals in Kafue National Park (KNP), Zambia. KNP is affected by prey depletion, particularly for large herbivores that were preferred prey for KNP lions a half-century ago. This provides a unique opportunity to test whether variables that explain local prey density also affect lion survival. Average lion density within our study area was 3.43 individuals/100 km2 (95% CI, 2.79-4.23), which was much lower than lion density reported for another miombo ecosystem with similar vegetation structure and rainfall that was less affected by prey depletion. Despite this, comparison to other lion populations showed that age- and sex-specific survival rates for KNP lions were generally good, and factors known to correlate with local prey density had small effects on lion survival. In contrast, recruitment of cubs was poor and average pride size was small. In particular, the proportion of the population comprised of second-year cubs was low, indicating that few cubs are recruited into the subadult age class. Our findings suggest that low recruitment might be a better signal of low prey density than survival. Thus, describing a lion population's age structure in addition to average pride size may be a simple and effective method of initially evaluating whether a lion population is affected by prey depletion. These dynamics should be evaluated for other lion populations and other large carnivore species. Increased resource protection and reducing the underlying drivers of prey depletion are urgent conservation needs for lions and other large carnivores as their conservation is increasingly threatened by range contraction and population declines.

Hidden Markov Models reveal a clear human footprint on the movements of highly mobile African wild dogs.

Large carnivores have experienced considerable range contraction, increasing the importance of movement across human-altered landscapes between small, isolated populations. African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are exceptionally wide-ranging, and recolonization is an important element of their persistence at broad scales. The competition-movement-connection hypothesis suggests that adaptations to move through areas that are unfavorable due to dominant competitors might promote the ability of subordinate competitors (like wild dogs) to move through areas that are unfavorable due to humans. Here, we used hidden Markov models to test how wild dog movements were affected by the Human Footprint Index in areas inside and outside of South Luangwa National Park. Movements were faster and more directed when outside the National Park, but slowed where the human footprint was stronger. Our results can be directly and quantitatively applied to connectivity planning, and we use them to identify ways to better understand differences between species in recent loss of connectivity.

Carnivores, competition and genetic connectivity in the Anthropocene.

Current extinction rates are comparable to five prior mass extinctions in the earth's history, and are strongly affected by human activities that have modified more than half of the earth's terrestrial surface. Increasing human activity restricts animal movements and isolates formerly connected populations, a particular concern for the conservation of large carnivores, but no prior research has used high throughput sequencing in a standardized manner to examine genetic connectivity for multiple species of large carnivores and multiple ecosystems. Here, we used RAD SNP genotypes to test for differences in connectivity between multiple ecosystems for African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and lions (Panthera leo), and to test correlations between genetic distance, geographic distance and landscape resistance due to human activity. We found weaker connectivity, a stronger correlation between genetic distance and geographic distance, and a stronger correlation between genetic distance and landscape resistance for lions than for wild dogs, and propose a new hypothesis that adaptations to interspecific competition may help to explain differences in vulnerability to isolation by humans.

Characterization of influenza A viruses isolated from wild waterfowl in Zambia.

Although the quest to clarify the role of wild birds in the spread of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus (AIV) has yielded considerable data on AIVs in wild birds worldwide, information regarding the ecology and epidemiology of AIVs in African wild birds is still very limited. During AIV surveillance in Zambia (2008-2009), 12 viruses of distinct subtypes (H3N8, H4N6, H6N2, H9N1 and H11N9) were isolated from wild waterfowl. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that all the isolates were of the Eurasian lineage. Whilst some genes were closely related to those of AIVs isolated from wild and domestic birds in South Africa, intimating possible AIV exchange between wild birds and poultry in southern Africa, some gene segments were closely related to those of AIVs isolated in Europe and Asia, thus confirming the inter-regional AIV gene flow among these continents. Analysis of the deduced amino acid sequences of internal proteins revealed that several isolates harboured particular residues predominantly observed in human influenza viruses. Interestingly, the isolates with human-associated residues exhibited higher levels of virus replication in the lungs of infected mice and caused more morbidity as measured by weight loss than an isolate lacking such residues. This study stresses the need for continued monitoring of AIVs in wild and domestic birds in southern Africa to gain a better understanding of the emergence of strains with the potential to infect mammals.