Temporal changes in cause of death among adolescents and adults in six countries in eastern and southern Africa in 1995-2019: a multi-country surveillance study of verbal autopsy data.

BACKGROUND: The absence of high-quality comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems across many settings in Africa has led to little empirical data on causes of death in the region. We aimed to use verbal autopsy data to provide comparative, population-based estimates of cause-specific mortality among adolescents and adults in eastern and southern Africa. METHODS: In this surveillance study, we harmonised verbal autopsy and residency data from nine health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, each with variable coverage from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2019. We included all deaths to adolescents and adults aged 12 or over that were residents of the study sites and had a verbal autopsy conducted. InSilicoVA, a probabilistic model, was used to assign cause of death on the basis of the signs and symptoms reported in the verbal autopsy. Levels and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated, stratified by HDSS site, sex, age, and calendar periods. FINDINGS: 52 484 deaths and 5 157 802 person-years were reported among 1 071 913 individuals across the nine sites during the study period. 47 961 (91·4%) deaths had a verbal autopsy, of which 46 570 (97·1%) were assigned a cause of death. All-cause mortality generally decreased across the HDSS sites during this period, particularly for adults aged 20-59 years. In many of the HDSS sites, these decreases were driven by reductions in HIV and tuberculosis-related deaths. In 2010-14, the top causes of death were: road traffic accidents, HIV or tuberculosis, and meningitis or sepsis in adolescents (12-19 years); HIV or tuberculosis in adults aged 20-59 years; and neoplasms and cardiovascular disease in adults aged 60 years and older. There was greater between-HDSS and between-sex variation in causes of death for adolescents compared with adults. INTERPRETATION: This study shows progress in reducing mortality across eastern and southern Africa but also highlights age, sex, within-HDSS, and between-HDSS differences in causes of adolescent and adult deaths. These findings highlight the importance of detailed local data to inform health needs to ensure continued improvements in survival. FUNDING: National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the US National Institutes of Health.

INSPIRE datahub: a pan-African integrated suite of services for harmonising longitudinal population health data using OHDSI tools.

Introduction: Population health data integration remains a critical challenge in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), hindering the generation of actionable insights to inform policy and decision-making. This paper proposes a pan-African, Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) research architecture and infrastructure named the INSPIRE datahub. This cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and on-premises setup aims to enhance the discovery, integration, and analysis of clinical, population-based surveys, and other health data sources. Methods: The INSPIRE datahub, part of the Implementation Network for Sharing Population Information from Research Entities (INSPIRE), employs the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) open-source stack of tools and the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM) to harmonise data from African longitudinal population studies. Operating on Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services cloud platforms, and on on-premises servers, the architecture offers adaptability and scalability for other cloud providers and technology infrastructure. The OHDSI-based tools enable a comprehensive suite of services for data pipeline development, profiling, mapping, extraction, transformation, loading, documentation, anonymization, and analysis. Results: The INSPIRE datahub's "On-ramp" services facilitate the integration of data and metadata from diverse sources into the OMOP CDM. The datahub supports the implementation of OMOP CDM across data producers, harmonizing source data semantically with standard vocabularies and structurally conforming to OMOP table structures. Leveraging OHDSI tools, the datahub performs quality assessment and analysis of the transformed data. It ensures FAIR data by establishing metadata flows, capturing provenance throughout the ETL processes, and providing accessible metadata for potential users. The ETL provenance is documented in a machine- and human-readable Implementation Guide (IG), enhancing transparency and usability. Conclusion: The pan-African INSPIRE datahub presents a scalable and systematic solution for integrating health data in LMICs. By adhering to FAIR principles and leveraging established standards like OMOP CDM, this architecture addresses the current gap in generating evidence to support policy and decision-making for improving the well-being of LMIC populations. The federated research network provisions allow data producers to maintain control over their data, fostering collaboration while respecting data privacy and security concerns. A use-case demonstrated the pipeline using OHDSI and other open-source tools.

Rates of sexual partner acquisition from nationally representative surveys: variation between countries and by age, sex, wealth, partner and HIV status.

BACKGROUND: Knowing levels and determinants of partnership acquisition will help inform interventions that try to reduce transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including HIV. METHODS: We used population-based, cross-sectional data from 47 Demographic and Health Surveys to calculate rates of partner acquisition among men and women (15-49years), and identified socio-demographic correlates for partner acquisition. Partner acquisition rates were estimated as the total number of acquisitions divided by the person-time in the period covered by the survey. For each survey and by sex, we estimated age-specific partner acquisition rates and used age-adjusted piecewise exponential survival models to explore whether there was any association between wealth, HIV status and partner status with partner acquisition rates. RESULTS: Across countries, the median partner acquisition rates were 30/100 person-years for men (interquartile range 21-45) and 13/100 person-years for women (interquartile range 6-18). There were substantial variations in partner acquisition rates by age. Associations between wealth and partner acquisition rates varied across countries. People with a cohabiting partner were less likely to acquire a new one, and this effect was stronger for women than men and varied substantially between countries. Women living with HIV had higher partner acquisition rates than HIV-negative women but this association was less apparent for men. At a population level, partner acquisition rates were correlated with HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Partner acquisition rates are variable and are associated with important correlates of STIs and thus could be used to identify groups at high risk of STIs.

Comparison of programmatic data from antenatal clinics with population-based HIV prevalence estimates in the era of universal test and treat in western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To compare HIV prevalence estimates from routine programme data in antenatal care (ANC) clinics in western Kenya with HIV prevalence estimates in a general population sample in the era of universal test and treat (UTT). METHODS: The study was conducted in the area covered by the Siaya Health Demographic Surveillance System (Siaya HDSS) in western Kenya and used data from ANC clinics and the general population. ANC data (n = 1,724) were collected in 2018 from 13 clinics located within the HDSS. The general population was a random sample of women of reproductive age (15-49) who reside in the Siaya HDSS and participated in an HIV sero-prevalence survey in 2018 (n = 2,019). Total and age-specific HIV prevalence estimates were produced from both datasets and demographic decomposition methods were used to quantify the contribution of the differences in age distributions and age-specific HIV prevalence to the total HIV prevalence estimates. RESULTS: Total HIV prevalence was 18.0% (95% CI 16.3-19.9%) in the ANC population compared with 18.4% (95% CI 16.8-20.2%) in the general population sample. At most ages, HIV prevalence was higher in the ANC population than in the general population. The age distribution of the ANC population was younger than that of the general population, and because HIV prevalence increases with age, this reduced the total HIV prevalence among ANC attendees relative to prevalence standardised to the general population age distribution. CONCLUSION: In the era of UTT, total HIV prevalence among ANC attendees and the general population were comparable, but age-specific HIV prevalence was higher in the ANC population in most age groups. The expansion of treatment may have led to changes in both the fertility of women living with HIV and their use of ANC services, and our results lend support to the assertion that the relationship between ANC and general population HIV prevalence estimates are highly dynamic.

Local and long-distance migration among young people in rural Malawi: importance of age, sex and family.

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, migration of young people is common and occurs for a variety of reasons. Research focus is often on international or long-distance internal migration; however, shorter moves also affect people's lives and can reveal important information about cultures and societies. In rural sub-Saharan Africa, migration may be influenced by cultural norms and family considerations: these may be changing due to demographic shifts, urbanisation, and increased media access. Methods: We used longitudinal data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance Site in rural northern Malawi to present a detailed investigation of migration in young people between 2004-2017. Our focus is on the cultural effects of gender and family, and separate migrations into short and long distance, and independent and accompanied, as these different move types are likely to represent very different events in a young person's life. We use descriptive analyses multi-level multinomial logistic regression modelling. Results & conclusions: We found two key periods of mobility 1) in very young childhood and 2) in adolescence/young adulthood. In this traditionally patrilocal area, we found that young women move longer distances to live with their spouse, and also were more likely to return home after a marriage ends, rather than remain living independently. Young people living close to relatives tend to have lower chances of moving, and despite the local patrilineal customs, we found evidence of the importance of the maternal family. Female and male children may be treated differently from as young as age 4, with girls more likely to migrate long distances independently, and more likely to accompany their mothers in other moves.

Family network and household composition: a longitudinal dataset derived from the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System, in rural Malawi.

Proximity to family, household composition, and structure are often studied as outcomes and as explanatory factors in a wide range of scientific disciplines. Here, we describe a large longitudinal dataset (currently including data from over 70,000 individuals from 2004 to 2017), including data on household structure, proximity to kin, population density, and other socio-demographic factors derived from data from the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Northern Malawi. We present how the dataset is generated, list some examples of how it can be used, and provide information on the limitations that affect the types of analyses that can be carried out.

The prevalence and incidence of HIV in the ART era (2006-2016) in North West Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan countries bear a disproportionate percentage of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths despite the efforts to strengthen HIV prevention and treatments services, including ART. It is important to demonstrate how these services have contributed to reducing the epidemic using available population data. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence and incidence rates from a cohort running over 23 years in Magu District, Mwanza Region-North West Tanzania. Adults 15 years and over who were residents of the Kisesa observational HIV cohort study between 2006 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Survival analysis was used to calculate person-time at risk, incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Cox regression models were used for the risk factor analyses disaggregated by sex and age group. RESULTS: The HIV prevalence in the sero-surveys decreased from 7.2% in 2006/07 to 6.6% in 2016, with a notable decrease of over 50% for both men and women aged 15-24 years. The incidence rate for HIV was estimated to be 5.5 (95% CI 4.6-6.6) per 1,000 person-years in women compared to 4.6 (95% CI 3.5-5.8) in men, with a decrease over time. Despite the availability of ART services, the uptake is still small. CONCLUSIONS: New infections are still occurring, with high HIV incidence in individuals aged below 45 years. With new guidelines and the 95-95-95 UNAIDS target, prevalence and incidence must be adequately assessed. In addition, there is a need for additional efforts to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS prevention programmes and intervention services, especially in these areas where resources are limited.

Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa: a modelling analysis of observational population-based cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: As the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa matures, evidence about the age distribution of new HIV infections and how this distribution has changed over the epidemic is needed to guide HIV prevention. We aimed to assess trends in age-specific HIV incidence in six population-based cohort studies in eastern and southern Africa, reporting changes in mean age at infection, age distribution of new infections, and birth cohort cumulative incidence. METHODS: We used a Bayesian model to reconstruct age-specific HIV incidence from repeated observations of individuals' HIV serostatus and survival collected among population HIV cohorts in rural Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, in a collaborative analysis of the ALPHA network. We modelled HIV incidence rates by age, time, and sex using smoothing splines functions. We estimated incidence trends separately by sex and study. We used estimated incidence and prevalence results for 2000-17, standardised to study population distribution, to estimate mean age at infection and proportion of new infections by age. We also estimated cumulative incidence (lifetime risk of infection) by birth cohort. FINDINGS: Age-specific incidence declined at all ages, although the timing and pattern of decline varied by study. The mean age at infection was higher in men (cohort mean 27·8-34·6 years) than in women (24·8-29·6 years). Between 2000 and 2017, the mean age at infection per cohort increased slightly: 0·5 to 2·8 years among men and -0·2 to 2·5 years among women. Across studies, between 38% and 63% (cohort medians) of the infections in women were among those aged 15-24 years and between 30% and 63% of infections in men were in those aged 20-29 years. Lifetime risk of HIV declined for successive birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among women aged 15-24 years and men aged 20-29 years, supporting focused prevention in these groups. However, 40-60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Direct maternal deaths attributable to HIV in the era of antiretroviral therapy: evidence from three population-based HIV cohorts with verbal autopsy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether HIV is associated with an increased risk of mortality from direct maternal complications. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study using data from three demographic surveillance sites in Eastern and Southern Africa. METHODS: We use verbal autopsy data, with cause of death assigned using the InSilicoVA algorithm, to describe the association between HIV and direct maternal deaths amongst women aged 20-49 years. We report direct maternal mortality rates by HIV status, and crude and adjusted rate ratios comparing HIV-infected and uninfected women, by study site and by ART availability. We pool the study-specific rate ratios using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was strong evidence that HIV increased the rate of direct maternal mortality across all the study sites in the period ART was widely available, with the rate ratios varying from 4.5 in Karonga, Malawi [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-12.6] to 5.2 in Kisesa, Tanzania (95% CI 1.7-16.1) and 5.9 in uMkhanyakude, South Africa (95% CI 2.3-15.2) after adjusting for sociodemographic confounders. Combining these adjusted results across the study sites, we estimated that HIV-infected women have 5.2 times the rate of direct maternal mortality compared with HIV-uninfected women (95% CI 2.9-9.5). CONCLUSION: HIV-infected women face higher rates of mortality from direct maternal causes, which suggests that we need to improve access to quality maternity care for these women. These findings also have implications for the surveillance of HIV/AIDS-related mortality, as not all excess mortality attributable to HIV will be explicitly attributed to HIV/AIDS on the basis of a verbal autopsy interview.

Trends in sexual activity and demand for and use of modern contraceptive methods in 74 countries: a retrospective analysis of nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: A quarter of a century ago, two global events-the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing-placed gender equality and reproductive health and rights at the centre of the development agenda. Progress towards these goals has been slower than hoped. We used survey data and national-level indicators of social determinants from 74 countries to examine change in satisfaction of contraceptive need from a contextual perspective. METHODS: We searched for individual-level data from repeated nationally representative surveys that included information on sexual and reproductive health, and created a single dataset by harmonising data from each survey to a standard data specification. We described the relative timings of sexual initiation, first union (cohabitation or marriage), and first birth and used logistic regression to show the change in prevalence of sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used linear regression to examine country-level associations between the gender development index and the expected length of time in education for women and the three outcomes: sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used principal component analysis to describe countries using a combination of social-structural and behavioural indicators and assessed how well the components explained country-level variation in the proportion of women using contraception with fractional logistic regression. FINDINGS: In 34 of the 74 countries examined, proportions of all women who were sexually active, not wanting to conceive, and not using a modern contraceptive method decreased over time. Proportions of women who had been sexually active in the past year changed over time in 43 countries, with increases in 30 countries; demand for contraception increased in 42 countries, and use of a modern method of contraception increased in 37 countries. Increases over time in met need for contraception were correlated with increases in gender equality and with women's time in education. Regression analysis on the principal components showed that country-level variation in met contraceptive need was largely explained by a single component that combined behavioural and social-contextual variables. INTERPRETATION: Progress towards satisfying demand for contraception should take account of the changing context in which it is practised. To remove the remaining barriers, policy responses-and therefore research priorities-could require a stronger focus on social-structural determinants and broader aspects of sexual health. FUNDING: UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda.

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

Recent levels and trends in HIV incidence rates among adolescent girls and young women in ten high-prevalence African countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has changed contexts of HIV risk, but the influence on HIV incidence among young women is not clear. We aimed to summarise direct estimates of HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women since ART and before large investments in targeted prevention for those in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, and CINAHL for studies reporting HIV incidence data from serological samples collected among females aged 15-24 years in ten countries (Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) that were selected for DREAMS investment in 2015. We only included articles published in English. Our main outcome was to summarise recent levels and trends in HIV incidence estimates collected between 2005 and 2015, published or received from study authors, by age and sex, and pooled by region. FINDINGS: 51 studies were identified from nine of the ten DREAMS countries; no eligible studies from Lesotho were identified. Directly observed HIV incidence rates were lowest among females aged 13-19 years in Kumi, Uganda (0·38 cases per 100 person-years); and directly observed HIV incidence rates were highest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (7·79 per 100 person-years among females aged 15-19 years, and 8·63 in those aged 20-24 years), among fishing communities in Uganda (12·40 per 100 person-years in females aged 15-19 years and 4·70 in those aged 20-24 years), and among female sex workers aged 18-24 years in South Africa (13·20 per 100 person-years) and Zimbabwe (10·80). In pooled rates from the general population studies, the greatest sex differentials were in the youngest age groups-ie, females aged 15-19 years compared with male peers in both southern African (pooled relative risk 5·94, 95% CI 3·39-10·44) and eastern African countries (3·22, 1·51-6·87), and not significantly different among those aged 25-29 years in either region. Incidence often peaked earlier (during teenage years) among high-risk groups compared with general populations. Since 2005, HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women declined in Rakai (Uganda) and Manicaland (Zimbabwe), and also declined among female sex workers in Kenya, but not in the highest-risk communities in South Africa and Uganda. INTERPRETATION: Few sources of direct estimates of HIV incidence exist in high-burden countries and trend analyses with disaggregated data for age and sex are rare but indicate recent declines among adolescent girls and young women. In some of the highest-risk settings, however, little evidence exists to suggest ART availability and other efforts slowed transmission by 2016. Despite wide geographical diversity in absolute levels of incidence in adolescent girls and young women, risk relative to males persisted in all settings, with the greatest sex differentials in the youngest age groups. To end new infections among the growing population of adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, prevention programmes must address gender inequalities driving excessive risk among adolescent girls. FUNDING: This work was conducted as part of a planning grant funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparing reporting of abortions in three nationally representative surveys: methodological and contextual influences.

BACKGROUND: Abortions are known to be underreported in surveys. Previous research has found a number of ways in which survey methodology may affect respondents' willingness to disclose abortions. The social and political climate surrounding abortion may also create stigma affecting abortion reporting, and this may vary between countries and over time. METHODS: We estimate the extent of underreporting in three nationally representative population surveys by comparing survey rates with routine statistics, in order to explore the ways in which survey methodology and cultural context might influence reporting of abortion. Data are analysed from two National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, conducted in 2000 and 2010 (Natsal-2 and Natsal-3) in Britain, and the Fertility, Contraception and Sexual Dysfunction survey (FECOND) conducted in 2010 in France. The three surveys differ with regard to survey methodology and context. RESULTS: There was no strong evidence of underreporting in Natsal-2, which collected data on abortion using a direct question. There was evidence of underreporting in Natsal-3 and FECOND, both of which collected data on abortion through a pregnancy-history module. There was no evidence of a difference in the extent of underreporting between Natsal-3 and FECOND, which differed with regard to survey methodology (self-administered module in Natsal-3, telephone interview in FECOND) and country context. CONCLUSION: A direct question may be more effective in eliciting reports of abortion than a pregnancy-history module.

Changes in, and factors associated with, frequency of sex in Britain: evidence from three National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal).

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes over time in the reported frequency of occurrence of sex and associations between sexual frequency and selected variables. DESIGN: Repeat, cross sectional, population based National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-1, Natsal-2, and Natsal-3). SETTING: British general population. PARTICIPANTS: 18 876 men and women aged 16-59 and resident in Britain were interviewed in Natsal-1, completed in 1991; 11 161 aged 16-44 years in Natsal-2, completed in 2001, and 15 162 aged 16-74 years in Natsal-3, completed in 2012. Comparisons of actual and preferred sexual frequency in men and women aged 16-44 (the age range common to all surveys) between the three surveys. Factors associated with sexual frequency of at least once a week were examined using Natsal-3 data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sexual activity in the past month; frequency of sex in the past month; preferred frequency of sex. RESULTS: Median number of occasions of sex in the past month was four in Natsal-1 and Natsal-2 and three in Natsal-3 among women; and three in Natsal-1, Natsal-2, and Natsal-3 among men. The proportion reporting no sex in the past month fell between Natsal-1 and Natsal-2 (from 28.5% to 23.0% in women and from 30.9% to 26.0% in men) but increased significantly in Natsal-3 (to 29.3% in women and 29.2% in men). The proportion reporting sex 10 times or more in the past month increased between Natsal-1 and Natsal-2, from 18.4% to 20.6% in women and from 19.9% to 20.2% in men, but fell in Natsal-3, to 13.2% in woman and 14.4% in men. Participants aged 25 and over, and those married or cohabiting, experienced the steepest declines in sexual frequency (P values for interaction <0.05). Alongside the declines in sexual frequency, there was an increase in the proportion reporting that they would prefer sex more often. Age adjusted odds ratios showed that men and women in better physical and mental health had sex more frequently, as did those who were fully employed and those with higher earnings. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of sex has declined recently in Britain, more markedly among those in early middle age and those who are married or cohabiting. The findings and their implications need to be explained in the context of technological, demographic, and social change in Britain and warrant further investigation.

Understanding differences in conception and abortion rates among under-20 year olds in Britain and France: Examining the contribution of social disadvantage.

OBJECTIVES: Socioeconomic status has been shown to be associated with sexual activity, contraceptive-use, pregnancy and abortion among young people. Less is known about whether the strength of the association differs for each outcome, between men and women, or cross-nationally. We investigate this using contemporaneous national probability survey data from Britain and France. METHODS: Data were analysed for 17-29 year-olds in Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3, n = 5959) undertaken 2010-2012, and the 2010 French Fertility, Contraception and Sexual Dysfunction survey (FECOND, n = 3027). For each country, we estimated the gender-specific prevalence of sex before-16, contraceptive-use, conception before-20, and abortion in the event of conception, and used logistic regression to examine associations between two measures of socioeconomic status-educational-level and parental socioeconomic-group-and each outcome. We tested for interactions between socioeconomic characteristics and country, and socioeconomic characteristics and gender, for each outcome. RESULTS: For each outcome, Britain and France differed with regard to prevalence but associations with socioeconomic characteristics were similar. Respondents of higher educational level, and, less consistently, with parents from higher socioeconomic-groups, were less likely to report sex before-16 (Britain, men: adjusted OR (aOR) 0.5, women: aOR 0.5; France, men: aOR 0.5, women: aOR 0.5), no contraception at first sex (Britain, men: aOR 0.4, women: aOR 0.6; France, men: aOR 0.4, women: aOR 0.4), pregnancy before-20 (Britain: aOR 0.3; France: aOR 0.1), and in Britain, a birth rather than an abortion in the event of conception (Britain: aOR 3.1). We found no strong evidence of variation in the magnitude of the associations with socioeconomic characteristics by country or gender. CONCLUSIONS: Population level differences in conception and abortion rates between the two countries may partly be driven by the larger proportion of the population that is disadvantaged in Britain. This research highlights the role intra-country comparisons can play in understanding young people's sexual and reproductive behaviours.

Sustained 10-year gain in adult life expectancy following antiretroviral therapy roll-out in rural Malawi: July 2005 to June 2014.

Background: Improved life expectancy in high HIV prevalence populations has been observed since antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. However, it is unclear if the benefits are sustained, and the mortality among HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART is not well described. We assessed temporal change in mortality over 9 years in rural Malawi. Methods: Within a demographic surveillance site in northern rural Malawi, we combined demographic, HIV and ART uptake data. We calculated life expectancy using Kaplan-Meier estimates, and compared mortality rates and rate ratios using Poisson regression, by period of ART availability (July 2005-June 2008, July 2008-June 2011 and July 2011-June 2014). Results: Among 32 664 individuals there were 1424 deaths; 1930 individuals were known HIV-positive, of whom 1382 started ART. Overall, life expectancy at age 15 years increased by 10 years within 5 years of ART introduction, and plateaued. Age-standardized adult mortality rates declined from 11.3/1000 to 7.5/1000 person-years between the first and last time period. In July 2011-June 2014 compared with July 2005-June 2008, mortality declined in HIV-positive individuals on ART (rate ratio adjusted (aRR) for age, sex, location and education, 0.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-0.5) and in those not (yet) on ART (aRR 0.3; 95%CI 0.1-0.5) but not in HIV-negative individuals (aRR 1.1; 95%CI 0.7-1.9). Conclusions: Total population adult life expectancy increased toward that of HIV-negative individuals by 2011 and remained raised. The reduction in all-cause and HIV-related mortality in HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART suggests ART uptake is occurring at an earlier disease stage, particularly in women.

The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA): Data on mortality, by HIV status and stage on the HIV care continuum, among the general population in seven longitudinal studies between 1989 and 2014.

Timely progression of people living with HIV (PLHIV) from the point of infection through the pathway from diagnosis to treatment is important in ensuring effective care and treatment of HIV and preventing HIV-related deaths and onwards transmission of infection.  Reliable, population-based estimates of new infections are difficult to obtain for the generalised epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.  Mortality data indicate disease burden and, if disaggregated along the continuum from diagnosis to treatment, can also reflect the coverage and quality of different HIV services.  Neither routine statistics nor observational clinical studies can estimate mortality prior to linkage to care nor following disengagement from care.  For this, population-based data are required. The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa brings together studies in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.  Eight studies have the necessary data to estimate mortality by HIV status, and seven can estimate mortality at different stages of the HIV care continuum.  This data note describes a harmonised dataset containing anonymised individual-level information on survival by HIV status for adults aged 15 and above. Among PLHIV, the dataset provides information on survival during different periods: prior to diagnosis of infection; following diagnosis but before linkage to care; in pre-antiretroviral treatment (ART) care; in the first six months after ART initiation; among people continuously on ART for 6+ months; and among people who have ever interrupted ART.

Trends in the burden of HIV mortality after roll-out of antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an observational community cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world. METHODS: Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods. FINDINGS: Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4-17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5-20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (-2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6-7·8). In 2011-14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women. INTERPRETATION: The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health.

The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning.

Maternal obesity and Caesarean delivery in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify maternal obesity as a risk factor for Caesarean delivery in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression analysis using 31 nationally representative cross-sectional data sets from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). RESULTS: Maternal obesity was a risk factor for Caesarean delivery in sub-Saharan Africa; a clear dose-response relationship (where the magnitude of the association increased with increasing BMI) was observable. Compared to women of optimal weight, overweight women (BMI 25-29 kg/m(2) ) were significantly more likely to deliver by Caesarean (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.33, 1.78), as were obese women (30-34.9 kg/m(2) (OR: 2.39; 95%CI: 1.96-2.90); 35-39.9 kg/m(2) (OR: 2.47 95%CI: 1.78-3.43)) and morbidly obese women (BMI ≥40 kg/m(2) OR: 3.85; 95% CI: 2.46-6.00). CONCLUSIONS: BMI is projected to rise substantially in sub-Saharan Africa over the next few decades and demand for Caesarean sections already exceeds available capacity. Overweight women should be advised to lose weight prior to pregnancy. Furthermore, culturally appropriate prevention strategies to discourage further population-level rises in BMI need to be designed and implemented.