A review of trends in the distribution of vector-borne diseases: is international trade contributing to their spread?

It is difficult to determine the part that international trade has played in the expansion of vector-borne diseases, because of the multitude of factors that affect the transformation of habitats and the interfaces between vectors and hosts. The introduction of pathogens through trade in live animals or products of animal origin, as well as the arrival of arthropod vectors, is probably quite frequent but the establishment of an efficient transmission system that develops into a disease outbreak remains the exception. In this paper, based on well-documented examples, the authors review the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of vector-borne diseases that may have been affected in their spread and change of distribution by international trade. In addition, they provide a detailed analysis of the risks associated with specific trade routes and recent expansions of vector populations. Finally, the authors highlight the importance, as well as the challenges, of preventive surveillance and regulation. The need for improved monitoring of vector populations and a readiness to face unpredictable epidemiological events are also emphasised, since this will require rapid reaction, not least in the regulatory context.

The cold European winter of 2005-2006 assisted the spread and persistence of H5N1 influenza virus in wild birds.

In January 2006, a major cold spell affected Europe, coinciding with an increase of H5N1 influenza virus detected in wild birds, mostly dead mute swans, starting along the River Danube and the Mediterranean coast line. Subsequently H5N1 detections in wild birds were concentrated in central and western parts of Europe, reaching a peak in mid February. We tested the hypothesis that the geographic distribution of these H5N1 infections was modulated by the long-term wintering line, the 0 °C isotherm marking the limit beyond which areas are largely unsuitable for wintering waterfowl. Given the particularly cold 2005-2006 European winter, we also considered the satellite-derived contemporary frost conditions. This brought us to select the long-term maximum rather than the mean January 0 °C isotherm as the best approximation for the 2005-2006 wintering line. Our analysis shows that H5N1 detection sites were closer to the wintering line than would be expected by chance, even when the geographic distribution of water bird wintering sites was accounted for. We argue that partial frost conditions in water bodies are conducive to bird congregation, and this may have enhanced H5N1 transmission and local spread. Because the environmental virus load also would build up in these hot spots, H5N1 virus may have readily persisted during the spring, at least in cooler areas. We conclude that H5N1 introduction, spread, and persistence in Europe may have been enhanced by the cold 2005-2006 winter.

Land cover and tsetse fly distributions in sub-Saharan Africa.

This study aims to provide trypanosomiasis-affected countries with standardized datasets and methodologies for mapping the habitat of the tsetse fly (Glossina spp., the disease vector) by customizing and integrating state-of-the-art land cover maps on different spatial scales. Using a combination of inductive and deductive approaches, land cover and fly distribution maps are analysed in a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the suitability of different land cover units for the three groups (subgenera) of Glossina. All land cover datasets used for and produced by the study comply with the Land Cover Classification System (LCCS). At the continental scale, a strong correlation between land cover and tsetse habitat is found for both the fusca and palpalis groups, whereas a weaker correlation found for the morsitans group may be indicative of less restrictive ecological requirements. At the regional and national levels, thematic aggregation of the multi-purpose Africover datasets yielded high-resolution, standardized land cover maps tailored for tsetse habitat for eight East African countries. The national maps provide remarkable spatial resolution, thematic detail and geographical coverage. They may be applied in subsequent phases of tsetse and trypanosomiasis control projects, including the planning of entomological surveys, actual tsetse control operations and planning for land use in reclaimed areas. The methodology and datasets discussed in the paper may have applications beyond the tsetse and trypanosomiasis issue and may be used with reference to other arthropod vectors, vector-borne and parasitic diseases.

Climate change: effects on animal disease systems and implications for surveillance and control.

Climate driven and other changes in landscape structure and texture, plus more general factors, may create favourable ecological niches for emerging diseases. Abiotic factors impact on vectors, reservoirs and pathogen bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems. Changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in terms of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Pathogen invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease complexes, presenting major challenges for the sustainability of future animal agriculture at the global level. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and host population dynamics and distribution are complex to assess, and different approaches are used to describe the underlying epidemiological processes and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. The invasion process can disrupt the long-term co-evolution of species. Pathogens adhering to an r-type strategy (e.g. RNA viruses) may be more inclined to encroach on a novel niche resulting from climate change. However, even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are other factors changing disease behaviour, and these should be accounted for as well. Overall vulnerability of a given ecosystem is a key variable in this regard. The impact of climate-driven changes varies in different parts of the world and in the different agro-climatic zones. Perhaps priority should go to those geographical areas where the integrity of the ecosystem is most severely affected and the adaptability, in terms of robustness and sustainability of response, relatively low.

Climate change and avian influenza.

This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed.

Disease intelligence for highly pathogenic avian influenza.

A comprehensive approach to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is crucial for identifying all the factors that contribute to its emergence, spread and persistence. Epidemiological understanding makes it possible to predict the evolution of the virus and to prevent and control the socioeconomic, environmental, institutional and policy consequences. At FAO, risk assessment and intelligence with regard to HPAI are based on lessons learnt from assisting countries to design strategies and on implementation of technical assistance programmes, which reveal important elements, such as the roles of ducks, live-bird markets and trade. Wild birds were found to contribute, by transporting the H5N1 virus over long distances. The contributions of different poultry farming systems and market chains in the epidemiology of HPAI are well recognized; however, the respective roles of smallholder systems and commercial farms are unclear. FAO considers that smallholders will continue to be an important factor and should be taken into account in control and prevention programmes. Changes in poultry farming are essentially driven by the private sector and market forces and could have negative consequences on the livelihoods of smallholders and on ecologically balanced production systems and agricultural biodiversity. Biosecurity can, however, be improved at the level of farms and markets. Institutional factors, such as the capacity of animal health systems to deliver control programmes, are also important, requiring strengthening and innovation in risk analysis and management.

Epidemiology and ecology of highly pathogenic avian influenza with particular emphasis on South East Asia.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recognised as a serious viral disease of poultry since 1878. The number of recorded outbreaks of HPAI has increased globally in the past 10 years culminating in 2004 with the unprecedented outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI involving at least nine countries in East and South-East Asia. Apart from the geographical extent of these outbreaks and apparent rapid spread, this epidemic has a number of unique features, among which is the role that asymptomatic domestic waterfowl and more particularly free-ranging ducks play in the transmission of highly pathogenic H5N1. Field epidemiological studies have been conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization and several collaborative centres to explore the factors that could have led to a change from infection to the emergence of widespread disease in 2003-2004 and 2005. Domestic waterfowl, specific farming practices and agro-ecological environments have been identified to play a key role in the occurrence, maintenance and spread of HPAI. Although there are some questions that remain unanswered regarding the origins of the 2004 outbreaks, the current understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of the disease should now lead to the development of adapted targeted surveillance studies and control strategies.

Seasonality of Old World screwworm myiasis in the Mesopotamia valley in Iraq.

Following the first recorded introduction of the Old World screwworm fly (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae), into the Mesopotamia valley in Iraq in September 1996, cases of livestock myiasis caused by OWS developed a distinctly seasonal pattern. The annual cycle of clinical OWS cases is explained here on the basis of environmental variables that affect the different life-cycle stages of C. bezziana. This analysis suggests that low temperatures restricted pupal development during the winter, whereas the dispersal of adult flies was constrained by hot/dry summer conditions. A restricted number of OWS foci persisted throughout the year. In these foci, pupal development was fastest during the autumn months. In autumn, rapid multiplication, lasting several OWS generations, allowed subsequent adult fly dispersal across the valley floor during the winter. Hence, the monthly incidence of clinical OWS cases in livestock peaked during December-January and was lowest during July-August. In addition to temperature and humidity, vegetation cover played a role in OWS distribution. Hence the majority of OWS cases were clustered in the medium density type of vegetation [normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values of 0.2-0.4] along the main watercourses in the marshy Mesopotamia valley. Although sheep were the host most commonly infested by C. bezziana, local sheep density was not found to be a major factor in disease spread. Satellite imagery and the application of Geographical Information System (GIS) tools were found to be valuable in understanding the distribution of OWS in relation to vegetation and watercourses. The presence of screwworm in Iraq, at the perimeter of the intercontinental OWS distribution, may give rise to major seasonal flare-ups.

Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach.

Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990-2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990-1996 and 1997 2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990-1996 to 1997-2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed according to serotype groups and is discussed in relation to their differential affinity to cattle and small ruminant hosts.

Ecological sources of zoonotic diseases.

Although of zoonotic origin, pathogens or infections posing a global threat to human health such as human immunodeficiency virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome or emerging influenza type A viruses may actually have little in common with known, established zoonotic agents, as these new agents merely underwent a transient zoonotic stage before adapting to humans. Evolution towards person-to-person transmission depends on the biological features of the pathogen, but may well be triggered or facilitated by external factors such as changes in human exposure. Disease emergence may thus be depicted as an evolutionary response to changes in the environment, including anthropogenic factors such as new agricultural practices, urbanisation, or globalisation, as well as climate change. Here the authors argue that in the case of zoonotic diseases emerging in livestock, change in agricultural practices has become the dominant factor determining the conditions in which zoonotic pathogens evolve, spread, and eventually enter the human population. Livestock pathogens are subjected to pressures resulting from the production, processing and retail environment which together alter host contact rate, population size and/or microbial traffic flows in the food chain. This process is illustrated by two study cases: a) livestock development in the 'Eurasian ruminant street' (the area extending from central Asia to the eastern Mediterranean basin) and the adjacent Arabian peninsula b) poultry production in Southeast Asia. In both scenarios, environmental factors relating to demography, land pressure and imbalances in production intensification have led to an unstable epidemiological situation, as evidenced by the highly pathogenic avian influenza upsurge early in 2004, when the main outbreaks were located in areas which had both large scale, peri-urban commercial holdings and a high density of smallholder poultry units.

Agro-climatic classification systems for estimating the global distribution of livestock numbers and commodities.

Investment in agricultural research in developing countries is being increasingly targeted at those agro-climatic zones and issues where the economic and environmental benefits may be expected to be greatest. This first requires that the zones themselves be defined, along with information on domestic livestock numbers and commodity output within agro-climatic zones in different countries. Different methods for classifying agro-climatic zones were compared. These included methods based on estimated length of growing period (LGP) using rainfall and temperature data, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), and on more detailed agronomic models, remote sensing data and land use information. Zonation based on LGP has already been linked to existing national livestock data. By defining agro-climatic zones and relating concentrations of livestock populations to those of humans, it is possible to make realistic estimates of livestock populations and the production of livestock commodities for most developing countries. Detailed agro-climatic analyses of Mainland East Asia and Sri Lanka have recently been undertaken using the GROWEST agronomic model. Using this model as the basis of agro-climatic classification appears to be significantly superior, particularly in temperate environments, to approaches based solely on LGP. Different ways of subdividing countries and continents into agro-climatic or agro-ecological zones (AEZs) are reviewed in this paper. In addition, we show how the numbers of production and commodities from domestic livestock can be allocated to such zones. We also indicate how some of this information can be applied.

A contribution towards simplifying area-wide tsetse surveys using medium resolution meteorological satellite data.

A raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomiasis, animal production, agriculture and land use has recently been developed in Togo. The area-wide sampling of tsetse fly, aided by satellite imagery, is the subject of two separate papers. This paper follows on a first paper, published in this journal, describing the generation of digital tsetse distribution and abundance maps and how these accord with the local climatic and agro-ecological setting. Such maps when combined with data on the disease, the hosts and their owners, should contribute to the knowledge of the spatial epidemiology of trypanosomiasis and assist planning of integrated control operations. Here we address the problem of generating tsetse distribution and abundance maps from remotely sensed data, using a restricted amount of field data. Different discriminant analysis models have been applied using contemporary tsetse data and remotely sensed, low resolution data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteosat platforms. The results confirm the potential of satellite data application and multivariate analysis for the prediction of the tsetse distribution and abundance. This opens up new avenues because satellite predictions and field data may be combined to strengthen and/or substitute one another. The analysis shows how the strategic incorporation of satellite imagery may minimize field collection of data. Field surveys may be modified and conducted in two stages, first concentrating on the expected fly distribution limits and thereafter on fly abundance. The study also shows that when applying satellite data, care should be taken in selecting the optimal number of predictor variables because this number varies with the amount of training data for predicting abundance and on the homogeneity of the distribution limits for predicting fly presence. Finally, it is suggested that in addition to the use of contemporary training data and predictor variables, training and predicted data sets should refer to the same eco-geographic zone.

The spatial pattern of trypanosomosis prevalence predicted with the aid of satellite imagery.

Information on the spatial pattern of African animal trypanosomosis forms a prerequisite for rational disease management, but few data exist for any country in the continent. The present study describes a raster or grid-based Geographic Information System for Togo, a country representative of subhumid West Africa, with data layers on tsetse, trypanosomosis, animal production, agriculture and land use. The paper shows how trypanosomosis prevalence and packed cell volume (PCV) map displays may be predicted from correlations between representative field data and environmental and satellite data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteosat platforms. Discriminant analytical methods were used to assess the relationship between the amount of field data used and the accuracy of the predictions obtained. The accuracy of satellite derived predictions decreases from tsetse abundance to trypanosomosis prevalence to PCV value. The predictions improve when eco-climatic and epidemiological predictors are combined. In Togo, and probably elsewhere, the patterns of trypanosomosis prevalence and PCV are much influenced by animal husbandry and other anthropogenic factors. Additional predictor variables, incorporating these influences might therefore further improve the models.

The area-wide epidemiology of bovine trypanosomosis and its impact on mixed farming in subhumid West Africa; a case study in Togo.

This paper reports on an area wide study of all major variables determining the expression of trypanosomosis in cattle in the subhumid eco-zone of West Africa, taking Togo as an example. To enable systematic area-wide sampling, the country was divided in 311 grid-squares of 0.125 x 0.125 sides. Cross-sectional surveys were then conducted to generate maps or digital layers on cattle density, herd structure, ownership and breed. These data layers, except for the breed data, were subjected to a cluster analysis in order to define spatial patterns in animal husbandry systems. This analysis revealed two main systems: one is oriented towards integration with crop-agriculture and a second towards investment in cattle. These two systems could be further characterised by incorporating breed data. Zebu cattle and their crossbreeds are more favoured in the second system. The breed distribution map shows the actual situation but also serves to predict the outcome of progressive crossbreeding. An area wide trypanosomosis survey allowed the production of prevalence maps for Trypanosoma congolense, T. vivax and the associated packed cell volume (PCV) values. A simple curvi-linear relationship was established between vector density and disease prevalence. The regression between disease prevalence and PCV for taurine and zebu plus crossbreeds separately, revealed that taurine cattle maintain a comparatively high PCV level particularly in high prevalence scenarios. The relationship between the average herd PCV and cattle density suggests that herd PCV value may provide a mirror for the number of animals not kept because of the prevailing risk. The regression between agricultural intensity and cattle density subsequently in areas with decreasing herd PCV values reveals that the level of integration of cattle in crop production decreases with a decreasing PCV. Thus, despite the presence of taurine animals in Togo, the omnipresence of tsetse in particular Glossina tachinoides, remains a major obstacle to cattle raising and indirectly mixed farming development and intensification. It is argued that only with the present type of wide scale, spatial studies it becomes possible to clarify all the major variables influencing the expression of trypanosomosis. Spatial epidemiological studies at a macro level may form the basis for area wide trypanosomosis control in West Africa.

Can remotely sensed meteorological data significantly contribute to reduce costs of tsetse surveys?

A 0.125 degree raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomiasis animal production, agriculturerkina> and land use has recently been developed in Togo. This paper addresses the problem of generating tsetse distribution and abundance maps from remotely sensed data, using a restricted amount of field data. A discriminant analysis model is tested using contemporary tsetse data and remotely sensed, low resolution data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and Meteosat platforms. A split sample technique is adopted where a randomly selected part of the field measured data (training set) serves to predict the other part (predicted set). The obtained results are then compared with field measured data per corresponding grid-square. Depending on the size of the training set the percentage of concording predictions varies from 80 to 95 for distribution figures and from 63 to 74 for abundance. These results confirm the potential of satellite data application and multivariate analysis for the prediction, not only of the tsetse distribution, but more importantly of their abundance. This opens up new avenues because satellite predictions and field data may be combined to strengthen or substitute one another and thus reduce costs of field surveys.

Tsetse flies and their control.

The authors use a quantitative modelling framework to describe and explore the features of the biology of tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) which are important in determining the rate of transmission of the African trypanosomiases between hosts. Examples are presented of the contribution of previous research on tsetse to quantified epidemiological and epizootiological understanding, and areas of current ignorance are identified for future study. Spatial and temporal variations in risk are important (but rarely-studied) determinants of the impact of trypanosomiasis on humans, domestic animals and agricultural activities. Recent grid-based sampling surveys to Togo provide valuable data sets on tsetse, cattle and trypanosomiasis throughout the country. A combination of ground-based meterological and remotely-sensed satellite data, within linear discriminant analytical models, enables description of the observed distributions of the five species of tsetse occurring in Togo, with accuracies of between 72% (Glossina palpalis and G. tachinoides) and 98% (G. fusca). Abundance classes of the two most widespread species, G. palpalis and G. tachinoides, are described with accuracies of between 47% and 83%. This is especially remarkable given the relatively small differences between the average values of the predictor variables in areas of differing fly abundance. Similar analyses could be used to predict the occurrence and abundance of flies in other areas, which have not been surveyed to date, in order to plan tsetse control campaigns or explore development options. Finally, some recent tsetse control campaigns are briefly reviewed. The shift of emphasis from fly eradication to fly control is associated with a devolution of responsibility for control activities from central government to local areas, communities or even individuals. The future role of central governments will remain crucial, however, in determining the areas in which different control options are practised, in facilitating control by local communities and in protecting controlled areas from re-invasion by flies from other areas.

Studies on bovine demodecosis in northern Nigeria. Specification and host parasite relationships.

The study reported in the present paper discusses the clinical and histological picture of bovine demodecosis and the morphology of Demodex mites as seen in four cows suffering from generalized demodecosis. There were no clinical signs of other skin affections. Changes in both the number and the appearance of visible skin lesions were seen and related to the level of nutrition and the exposure to sunshine of the cattle. Histological sections of some skin nodules showed the presence of mite colonies in the hair follicles. Only adults were seen in the sebaceous glands. Microscopical study of the morphology of the mites revealed the presence of two types of demodicids in the skin lesions and three types from epilated eyelashes. Morphological criteria are presented to aid in identification of species and of life stages.

Studies on bovine demodecosis in northern Nigeria.

Summary The study reported in the present paper discusses the clinical and histological picture of bovine demodecosis and the morphology of Demodex mites as seen in four cows suffering from generalized demodecosis. There were no clinical signs of other skin affections. Changes in both the number and the appearance of visible skin lesions were seen and related to the level of nutrition and the exposure to sunshine of the cattle. Histological sections of some skin nodules showed the presence of mite colonies in the hair follicles. Only adults were seen in the sebaceous glands. Microscopical study of the morphology of the mites revealed the presence of two types of demodicids in the skin lesions and three types from epilated eyelashes. Morphological criteria are presented to aid in identification of species and of life stages.