Network Spreading from Network Dimension.

Continuous-state network spreading models provide critical numerical and analytic insights into transmission processes in epidemiology, rumor propagation, knowledge dissemination, and many other areas. Most of these models reflect only local features such as adjacency, degree, and transitivity, so can exhibit substantial error in the presence of global correlations typical of empirical networks. Here, we propose mitigating this limitation via a network property ideally suited to capturing spreading. This is the network correlation dimension, which characterizes how the number of nodes within range of a source typically scales with distance. Applying the approach to susceptible-infected-recovered processes leads to a spreading model which, for a wide range of networks and epidemic parameters, can provide more accurate predictions of the early stages of a spreading process than important established models of substantially higher complexity. In addition, the proposed model leads to a basic reproduction number that provides information about the final state not available from popular established models.

Mapping clinical interactions in an Australian tertiary hospital emergency department for patients presenting with risk of suicide or self-harm: Network modeling from observational data.

BACKGROUND: Reliable assessment of suicide and self-harm risk in emergency medicine is critical for effective intervention and treatment of patients affected by mental health disorders. Teams of clinicians face the challenge of rapidly integrating medical history, wide-ranging psychosocial factors, and real-time patient observations to inform diagnosis, treatment, and referral decisions. Patient outcomes therefore depend on the reliable flow of information through networks of clinical staff and information systems. This study aimed to develop a quantitative data-driven research framework for the analysis of information flow in emergency healthcare settings to evaluate clinical practice and operational models for emergency psychiatric care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We deployed 2 observers in a tertiary hospital emergency department during 2018 for a total of 118.5 h to record clinical interactions along patient trajectories for presentations with risk of self-harm or suicide (n = 272 interactions for n = 43 patient trajectories). The study population was reflective of a naturalistic sample of patients presenting to a tertiary emergency department in a metropolitan Australian city. Using the observational data, we constructed a clinical interaction network to model the flow of clinical information at a systems level. Community detection via modularity maximization revealed communities in the network closely aligned with the underlying clinical team structure. The Psychiatric Liaison Nurse (PLN) was identified as the most important agent in the network as quantified by node degree, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality. Betweenness centrality of the PLN was significantly higher than expected by chance (>95th percentile compared with randomly shuffled networks) and removing the PLN from the network reduced both the global efficiency of the model and the closeness centrality of all doctors. This indicated a potential vulnerability in the system that could negatively impact patient care if the function of the PLN was compromised. We developed an algorithmic strategy to mitigate this risk by targeted strengthening of links between clinical teams using greedy cumulative addition of network edges in the model. Finally, we identified specific interactions along patient trajectories which were most likely to precipitate a psychiatric referral using a machine learning model trained on features from dynamically constructed clinical interaction networks. The main limitation of this study is the use of nonclinical information only (i.e., modeling is based on timing of interactions and agents involved, but not the content or quantity of information transferred during interactions). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a data-driven research framework, new to the best of our knowledge, to assess and reinforce important information pathways that guide clinical decision processes and provide complementary insights for improving clinical practice and operational models in emergency medicine for patients at risk of suicide or self-harm. Our findings suggest that PLNs can play a crucial role in clinical communication, but overreliance on PLNs may pose risks to reliable information flow. Operational models that utilize PLNs may be made more robust to these risks by improving interdisciplinary communication between doctors. Our research framework could also be applied more broadly to investigate service delivery in different healthcare settings or for other medical specialties, patient groups, or demographics.

Searching for Key Cycles in a Complex Network.

Searching for key nodes and edges in a network is a long-standing problem. Recently cycle structure in a network has received more attention. Is it possible to propose a ranking algorithm for cycle importance? We address the problem of identifying the key cycles of a network. First, we provide a more concrete definition of importance-in terms of Fiedler value (the second smallest Laplacian eigenvalue). Key cycles are those that contribute most substantially to the dynamical behavior of the network. Second, by comparing the sensitivity of Fiedler value to different cycles, a neat index for ranking cycles is provided. Numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of this method.

Ordinal Poincaré sections: Reconstructing the first return map from an ordinal segmentation of time series.

We propose a robust algorithm for constructing first return maps of dynamical systems from time series without the need for embedding. A first return map is typically constructed using a convenient heuristic (maxima or zero-crossings of the time series, for example) or a computationally nuanced geometric approach (explicitly constructing a Poincaré section from a hyper-surface normal to the flow and then interpolating to determine intersections with trajectories). Our method is based on ordinal partitions of the time series, and the first return map is constructed from successive intersections with specific ordinal sequences. We can obtain distinct first return maps for each ordinal sequence in general. We define entropy-based measures to guide our selection of the ordinal sequence for a "good" first return map and show that this method can robustly be applied to time series from classical chaotic systems to extract the underlying first return map dynamics. The results are shown for several well-known dynamical systems (Lorenz, Rössler, and Mackey-Glass in chaotic regimes).

Selecting embedding delays: An overview of embedding techniques and a new method using persistent homology.

Delay embedding methods are a staple tool in the field of time series analysis and prediction. However, the selection of embedding parameters can have a big impact on the resulting analysis. This has led to the creation of a large number of methods to optimize the selection of parameters such as embedding lag. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals of embedding theory for readers who are new to the subject. We outline a collection of existing methods for selecting embedding lag in both uniform and non-uniform delay embedding cases. Highlighting the poor dynamical explainability of existing methods of selecting non-uniform lags, we provide an alternative method of selecting embedding lags that includes a mixture of both dynamical and topological arguments. The proposed method, Significant Times on Persistent Strands (SToPS), uses persistent homology to construct a characteristic time spectrum that quantifies the relative dynamical significance of each time lag. We test our method on periodic, chaotic, and fast-slow time series and find that our method performs similar to existing automated non-uniform embedding methods. Additionally, n-step predictors trained on embeddings constructed with SToPS were found to outperform other embedding methods when predicting fast-slow time series.

Correlation dimension in empirical networks.

Network correlation dimension governs the distribution of network distance in terms of a power-law model and profoundly impacts both structural properties and dynamical processes. We develop new maximum likelihood methods which allow us robustly and objectively to identify network correlation dimension and a bounded interval of distances over which the model faithfully represents structure. We also compare the traditional practice of estimating correlation dimension by modeling as a power law the fraction of nodes within a distance to a proposed alternative of modeling as a power law the fraction of nodes at a distance. In addition, we illustrate a likelihood ratio technique for comparing the correlation dimension and small-world descriptions of network structure. Improvements from our innovations are demonstrated on a diverse selection of synthetic and empirical networks. We show that the network correlation dimension model accurately captures empirical network structure over neighborhoods of substantial size and span and outperforms the alternative small-world network scaling model. Our improved methods tend to lead to higher estimates of network correlation dimension, implying that prior studies could have produced or utilized systematic underestimates of dimension.

Mobility data shows effectiveness of control strategies for COVID-19 in remote, sparse and diffuse populations.

Data that is collected at the individual-level from mobile phones is typically aggregated to the population-level for privacy reasons. If we are interested in answering questions regarding the mean, or working with groups appropriately modeled by a continuum, then this data is immediately informative. However, coupling such data regarding a population to a model that requires information at the individual-level raises a number of complexities. This is the case if we aim to characterize human mobility and simulate the spatial and geographical spread of a disease by dealing in discrete, absolute numbers. In this work, we highlight the hurdles faced and outline how they can be overcome to effectively leverage the specific dataset: Google COVID-19 Aggregated Mobility Research Dataset (GAMRD). Using a case study of Western Australia, which has many sparsely populated regions with incomplete data, we firstly demonstrate how to overcome these challenges to approximate absolute flow of people around a transport network from the aggregated data. Overlaying this evolving mobility network with a compartmental model for disease that incorporated vaccination status we run simulations and draw meaningful conclusions about the spread of COVID-19 throughout the state without de-anonymizing the data. We can see that towns in the Pilbara region are highly vulnerable to an outbreak originating in Perth. Further, we show that regional restrictions on travel are not enough to stop the spread of the virus from reaching regional Western Australia. The methods explained in this paper can be therefore used to analyze disease outbreaks in similarly sparse populations. We demonstrate that using this data appropriately can be used to inform public health policies and have an impact in pandemic responses.

Reservoir computing with higher-order interactive coupled pendulums.

The reservoir computing approach utilizes a time series of measurements as input to a high-dimensional dynamical system known as a reservoir. However, the approach relies on sampling a random matrix to define its underlying reservoir layer, which leads to numerous hyperparameters that need to be optimized. Here, we propose a nonlocally coupled pendulum model with higher-order interactions as a novel reservoir, which requires no random underlying matrices and fewer hyperparameters. We use Bayesian optimization to explore the hyperparameter space within a minimal number of iterations and train the coupled pendulums model to reproduce the chaotic attractors, which simplifies complicated hyperparameter optimization. We illustrate the effectiveness of our technique with the Lorenz system and the Hindmarsh-Rose neuronal model, and we calculate the Pearson correlation coefficients between time series and the Hausdorff metrics in the phase space. We demonstrate the contribution of higher-order interactions by analyzing the interaction between different reservoir configurations and prediction performance, as well as computations of the largest Lyapunov exponents. The chimera state is found as the most effective dynamical regime for prediction. The findings, where we present a new reservoir structure, offer potential applications in the design of high-performance modeling of dynamics in physical systems.

Multilayer networks with higher-order interaction reveal the impact of collective behavior on epidemic dynamics.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted tremendous economic and societal losses. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, the population behavioral response, including situational awareness and adherence to non-pharmaceutical intervention policies, has a significant impact on contagion dynamics. Game-theoretic models have been used to reproduce the concurrent evolution of behavioral responses and disease contagion, and social networks are critical platforms on which behavior imitation between social contacts, even dispersed in distant communities, takes place. Such joint contagion dynamics has not been sufficiently explored, which poses a challenge for policies aimed at containing the infection. In this study, we present a multi-layer network model to study contagion dynamics and behavioral adaptation. It comprises two physical layers that mimic the two solitary communities, and one social layer that encapsulates the social influence of agents from these two communities. Moreover, we adopt high-order interactions in the form of simplicial complexes on the social influence layer to delineate the behavior imitation of individual agents. This model offers a novel platform to articulate the interaction between physically isolated communities and the ensuing coevolution of behavioral change and spreading dynamics. The analytical insights harnessed therefrom provide compelling guidelines on coordinated policy design to enhance the preparedness for future pandemics.

A tighter generalization bound for reservoir computing.

While reservoir computing (RC) has demonstrated astonishing performance in many practical scenarios, the understanding of its capability for generalization on previously unseen data is limited. To address this issue, we propose a novel generalization bound for RC based on the empirical Rademacher complexity under the probably approximately correct learning framework. Note that the generalization bound for the RC is derived in terms of the model hyperparameters. For this reason, it can explore the dependencies of the generalization bound for RC on its hyperparameters. Compared with the existing generalization bound, our generalization bound for RC is tighter, which is verified by numerical experiments. Furthermore, we study the generalization bound for the RC corresponding to different reservoir graphs, including directed acyclic graph (DAG) and Erdos-R e´nyi undirected random graph (ER graph). Specifically, the generalization bound for the RC whose reservoir graph is designated as a DAG can be refined by leveraging the structural property (i.e., the longest path length) of the DAG. Finally, both theoretical and experimental findings confirm that the generalization bound for the RC of a DAG is lower and less sensitive to the model hyperparameters than that for the RC of an ER graph.

Multiple Sensors Data Integration for Traffic Incident Detection Using the Quadrant Scan.

Non-recurrent congestion disrupts normal traffic operations and lowers travel time (TT) reliability, which leads to many negative consequences such as difficulties in trip planning, missed appointments, loss in productivity, and driver frustration. Traffic incidents are one of the six causes of non-recurrent congestion. Early and accurate detection helps reduce incident duration, but it remains a challenge due to the limitation of current sensor technologies. In this paper, we employ a recurrence-based technique, the Quadrant Scan, to analyse time series traffic volume data for incident detection. The data is recorded by multiple sensors along a section of urban highway. The results show that the proposed method can detect incidents better by integrating data from the multiple sensors in each direction, compared to using them individually. It can also distinguish non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by incidents from recurrent congestion. The results show that the Quadrant Scan is a promising algorithm for real-time traffic incident detection with a short delay. It could also be extended to other non-recurrent congestion types.

Reservoir time series analysis: Using the response of complex dynamical systems as a universal indicator of change.

We present the idea of reservoir time series analysis (RTSA), a method by which the state space representation generated by a reservoir computing (RC) model can be used for time series analysis. We discuss the motivation for this with reference to the characteristics of RC and present three ad hoc methods for generating representative features from the reservoir state space. We then develop and implement a hypothesis test to assess the capacity of these features to distinguish signals from systems with varying parameters. In comparison to a number of benchmark approaches (statistical, Fourier, phase space, and recurrence analysis), we are able to show significant, generalized accuracy across the proposed RTSA features that surpasses the benchmark methods. Finally, we briefly present an application for bearing fault distinction to motivate the use of RTSA in application.

Link prediction for long-circle-like networks.

Link prediction is the problem of predicting the uncertain relationship between a pair of nodes from observed structural information of a network. Link prediction algorithms are useful in gaining insight into different network structures from partial observation of exemplars. Existing local and quasilocal link prediction algorithms with low computational complexity focus on regular complex networks with sufficiently many closed triangular motifs or on tree-like networks with the vast majority of open triangular motifs. However, the three-node motif cannot describe the local structural features of all networks, and we find the main structure of many networks is long line or closed circle that cannot be predicted well via traditional link prediction algorithms. Meanwhile, some global link prediction algorithms are effective but accompanied by high computational complexity. In this paper, we proposed a local method that is based on the natural characteristic of a long line-in contrast to the preferential attachment principle. Next, we test our algorithms for two kinds of symbolic long-circle-like networks: a metropolitan water distribution network and a sexual contact network. We find that our method is effective and performs much better than many traditional local and global algorithms. We adopt the community detection method to improve the accuracy of our algorithm, which shows that the long-circle-like networks also have clear community structure. We further suggest that the structural features are key for the link prediction problem. Finally, we propose a long-line network model to prove that our core idea is of universal significance.

Characterisation of neonatal cardiac dynamics using ordinal partition network.

The maturation of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) starts in the gestation period and it is completed after birth in a variable time, reaching its peak in adulthood. However, the development of ANS maturation is not entirely understood in newborns. Clinically, the ANS condition is evaluated with monitoring of gestational age, Apgar score, heart rate, and by quantification of heart rate variability using linear methods. Few researchers have addressed this problem from the perspective nonlinear data analysis. This paper proposes a new data-driven methodology using nonlinear time series analysis, based on complex networks, to classify ANS conditions in newborns. We map 74 time series given by RR intervals from premature and full-term newborns to ordinal partition networks and use complexity quantifiers to discriminate the dynamical process present in both conditions. We obtain three complexity quantifiers (permutation, conditional, and global node entropies) using network mappings from forward and reverse directions, and considering different time lags and embedding dimensions. The results indicate that time asymmetry is present in the data of both groups and the complexity quantifiers can differentiate the groups analysed. We show that the conditional and global node entropies are sensitive for detecting subtle differences between the neonates, particularly for small embedding dimensions (m < 7). This study reinforces the assessment of nonlinear techniques for RR interval time series analysis. Graphical Abstract.

Epidemic dynamics on higher-dimensional small world networks.

Dimension governs dynamical processes on networks. The social and technological networks which we encounter in everyday life span a wide range of dimensions, but studies of spreading on finite-dimensional networks are usually restricted to one or two dimensions. To facilitate investigation of the impact of dimension on spreading processes, we define a flexible higher-dimensional small world network model and characterize the dependence of its structural properties on dimension. Subsequently, we derive mean field, pair approximation, intertwined continuous Markov chain and probabilistic discrete Markov chain models of a COVID-19-inspired susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) epidemic process with quarantine and isolation strategies, and for each model identify the basic reproduction number R 0 , which determines whether an introduced infinitesimal level of infection in an initially susceptible population will shrink or grow. We apply these four continuous state models, together with discrete state Monte Carlo simulations, to analyse how spreading varies with model parameters. Both network properties and the outcome of Monte Carlo simulations vary substantially with dimension or rewiring rate, but predictions of continuous state models change only slightly. A different trend appears for epidemic model parameters: as these vary, the outcomes of Monte Carlo change less than those of continuous state methods. Furthermore, under a wide range of conditions, the four continuous state approximations present similar deviations from the outcome of Monte Carlo simulations. This bias is usually least when using the pair approximation model, varies only slightly with network size, and decreases with dimension or rewiring rate. Finally, we characterize the discrepancies between Monte Carlo and continuous state models by simultaneously considering network efficiency and network size.

Consistency Hierarchy of Reservoir Computers.

We study the propagation and distribution of information-carrying signals injected in dynamical systems serving as reservoir computers. Through different combinations of repeated input signals, a multivariate correlation analysis reveals measures known as the consistency spectrum and consistency capacity. These are high-dimensional portraits of the nonlinear functional dependence between input and reservoir state. For multiple inputs, a hierarchy of capacities characterizes the interference of signals from each source. For an individual input, the time-resolved capacities form a profile of the reservoir's nonlinear fading memory. We illustrate this methodology for a range of echo state networks.

Parameter extraction with reservoir computing: Nonlinear time series analysis and application to industrial maintenance.

We study the task of determining parameters of dynamical systems from their time series using variations of reservoir computing. Averages of reservoir activations yield a static set of random features that allows us to separate different parameter values. We study such random feature models in the time and frequency domain. For the Lorenz and Rössler systems throughout stable and chaotic regimes, we achieve accurate and robust parameter extraction. For vibration data of centrifugal pumps, we find a significant ability to recover the operating regime. While the time domain models achieve higher performance for the numerical systems, the frequency domain models are superior in the application context.

Reservoir computing with swarms.

We study swarms as dynamical systems for reservoir computing (RC). By example of a modified Reynolds boids model, the specific symmetries and dynamical properties of a swarm are explored with respect to a nonlinear time-series prediction task. Specifically, we seek to extract meaningful information about a predator-like driving signal from the swarm's response to that signal. We find that the naïve implementation of a swarm for computation is very inefficient, as permutation symmetry of the individual agents reduces the computational capacity. To circumvent this, we distinguish between the computational substrate of the swarm and a separate observation layer, in which the swarm's response is measured for use in the task. We demonstrate the implementation of a radial basis-localized observation layer for this task. The behavior of the swarm is characterized by order parameters and measures of consistency and related to the performance of the swarm as a reservoir. The relationship between RC performance and swarm behavior demonstrates that optimal computational properties are obtained near a phase transition regime.

Revisiting the memory capacity in reservoir computing of directed acyclic network.

Reservoir computing (RC) is an attractive area of research by virtue of its potential for hardware implementation and low training cost. An intriguing research direction in this field is to interpret the underlying dynamics of an RC model by analyzing its short-term memory property, which can be quantified by the global index: memory capacity (MC). In this paper, the global MC of the RC whose reservoir network is specified as a directed acyclic network (DAN) is examined, and first we give that its global MC is theoretically bounded by the length of the longest path of the reservoir DAN. Since the global MC is technically influenced by the model hyperparameters, the dependency of the MC on the hyperparameters of this RC is then explored in detail. In the further study, we employ the improved conventional network embedding method (i.e., struc2vec) to mine the underlying memory community in the reservoir DAN, which can be regarded as the cluster of reservoir nodes with the same memory profile. Experimental results demonstrate that such a memory community structure can provide a concrete interpretation of the global MC of this RC. Finally, the clustered RC is proposed by exploiting the detected memory community structure of DAN, where its prediction performance is verified to be enhanced with lower training cost compared with other RC models on several chaotic time series benchmarks.