Quality of life and health status in older adults (≥65 years) up to five years following colorectal cancer treatment: Findings from the ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is common in older adults, with more than 70% of diagnoses in people aged ≥65 years. Despite this, there is a knowledge gap regarding longer-term outcomes in this population. Here, we identify those older people most at risk of poor quality of life (QoL) and health status in the five years following CRC treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: CREW is a UK longitudinal cohort study investigating factors associated with health and wellbeing recovery following curative-intent CRC surgery. Participants completed self-report questionnaires pre-surgery, then at least annually up to five years. Longitudinal analyses explored the prevalence and pre-surgery risk factors of poor QoL (QLACS-GSS) and health status (EQ-5D: presence/absence of problems in five domains) in older (≥65 years) participants over five years. RESULTS: 501 participants aged ≥65years completed questionnaires pre-surgery; 45% completed questionnaires five years later. Oldest-old participants (≥80 years) reported poorer QoL (18% higher QLACS-GSS) and 2-4 times higher odds of having problems with mobility or usual activities, compared with the youngest-old (65-69 years) over follow-up. Baseline higher self-efficacy was significantly associated with better QoL (10-30% lower QLACS-GSS scores compared to those with low self-efficacy) and lower odds of problems in all EQ-5D domains. Adequate social support was significantly associated with better QoL (8% lower QLACS-GSS) and lower odds of problems with usual activities (OR = 0.62) and anxiety/depression (OR = 0.56). CONCLUSION: There are important differences in QoL and health status outcomes for the oldest-old during CRC recovery. CREW reveals pre-surgery risk factors that are amenable to intervention including self-efficacy and social support.

Prevalence and determinants of depression up to 5 years after colorectal cancer surgery: results from the ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study.

AIM: Depression experienced by people with colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important clinical problem affecting quality of life. Recognition of depression at key points in the pathway enables timely referral to support. This study aimed to examine depression before and 5 years after surgery to examine its prevalence and identify determinants. METHOD: The ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study is a prospective UK cohort study involving 872 adults with nonmetastatic CRC recruited before surgery with curative intent. Questionnaires completed before surgery and 3, 9, 15, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months after surgery captured socio-demographics and assessed depression (Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, CES-D) and other psychosocial factors. Clinical details were also gathered. We present the prevalence of clinically significant depression (CES-D ≥ 20) over time and its predictors assessed before and 2 years after surgery. RESULTS: Before surgery, 21.0% of the cohort reported CES-D ≥ 20 reducing to 14.7% 5 years after surgery. Presurgery risk factors predicting subsequent depression were clinically significant depression and anxiety, previous mental health service use, low self-efficacy, poor health, having neoadjuvant treatment and low social support. Postsurgery risk factors at 2 years predicting subsequent depression were clinically significant depression, negative affect, cognitive dysfunction, accommodation type and poor health. CONCLUSION: Depression is highly pervasive in people with CRC, exceeding prevalence in the general population across follow-up. Our findings emphasize the need to screen and treat depression across the pathway. Our novel data highlight key risk factors of later depression at important and opportune time points: before surgery and at the end of routine surveillance. Early recognition and timely referral to appropriate support is vital to improve long-term psychological outcomes.

Does quality of life return to pre-treatment levels five years after curative intent surgery for colorectal cancer? Evidence from the ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study.

BACKGROUND: The ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study is the first study to prospectively recruit colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, carry out the baseline assessment pre-treatment and follow patients up over five years to delineate the impact of treatment on health and wellbeing. METHODS: CRC patients received questionnaires at baseline (pre-surgery), 3, 9, 15, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months. The primary outcome was Quality of Life in Adult Cancer Survivors (QLACS); self-efficacy, mental health, social support, affect, socio-demographics, clinical and treatment characteristics were also assessed. Representativeness was evaluated. Predictors at baseline and at 24 months of subsequent worsened quality of life (QOL) were identified using multivariable regression models. RESULTS: A representative cohort of 1017 non-metastatic CRC patients were recruited from 29 UK cancer centres. Around one third did not return to pre-surgery levels of QOL five years after treatment. Baseline factors associated with worsened QOL included >2 comorbidities, neoadjuvant treatment, high negative affect and low levels of self-efficacy, social support and positive affect. Predictors at 24 months included older age, low positive affect, high negative affect, fatigue and poor cognitive functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Some risk factors for poor outcome up to five years following CRC surgery, such as self-efficacy, social support and comorbidity management, are amenable to change. Assessment of these factors from diagnosis to identify those most likely to need support in their recovery is warranted. Early intervention has the potential to improve outcomes.

Health and Social Care Diversity Among Individuals with Longstanding Physical and Psychological Health Problems: Pooled Repeated Cross Sectional Analyses.

This paper examines differences in health-and-social care utilisation for individuals with physical and/or mental health problems. Logistic regression models are used to determine disparity in the percentage of General Household/Lifestyle Survey participants with physical compared to mental health problems receiving disability benefits or health care services between 2000 and 2011. Our findings of a relative underutilisation of secondary health care combined with a relative overutilization of out-of-work benefits by individuals with mental health problems is novel to the field of rehabilitative health care. These results provide evidence for the previously suspected disparity in health care utilisation of individuals with mental health problems and indicate problems in labour force integration. The findings support the political call for a 'parity of esteem', which, in Britain, was enshrined in the Health and Social Care Act of 2012.

Assessment of Multiple Membership Multilevel Models: An Application to Interviewer Effects on Nonresponse.

Multilevel multiple membership models account for situations where lower level units are nested within multiple higher level units from the same classification. Not accounting correctly for such multiple membership structures leads to biased results. The use of a multiple membership model requires selection of weights reflecting the hypothesized contribution of each level two unit and their relationship to the level one outcome. The Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) has been proposed to identify such weights. For the case of logistic regression, this study assesses, through simulation, the model identification rates of the DIC to detect the correct multiple membership weights, and the properties of model variance estimators for different weight specifications across a range of scenarios. The study is motivated by analyzing interviewer effects across waves in a longitudinal study. Interviewers can substantially influence the behavior of sample survey respondents, including their decision to participate in the survey. In the case of a longitudinal survey several interviewers may contact sample members to participate across different waves. Multilevel multiple membership models are suitable to account for the inclusion of higher-level random effects for interviewers at various waves, and to assess, for example, the relative importance of previous and current wave interviewers on current wave nonresponse. To illustrate the application, multiple membership models are applied to the UK Family and Children Survey to identify interviewer effects in a longitudinal study. The paper takes a critical view on the substantive interpretation of the model weights and provides practical guidance to statistical modelers. The main recommendation is that it is best to specify the weights in a multiple membership model by exploring different weight specifications based on the DIC, rather than prespecifying the weights.

Colorectal cancer patient's self-efficacy for managing illness-related problems in the first 2 years after diagnosis, results from the ColoREctal Well-being (CREW) study.

PURPOSE: There is a growing emphasis on self-management of cancer aftercare. Little is known about patient's self-efficacy (confidence) to manage illness-related problems and how this changes over time. This paper describes the patterns of self-efficacy for managing illness-related problems amongst colorectal cancer patients in the 2 years following diagnosis. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, questionnaires were administered at baseline (pre-surgery), 3, 9, 15 and 24 months to 872 colorectal cancer patients. Self-efficacy (confidence to manage illness-related problems), anxiety, social support, affect, socio-demographics, physical symptoms and clinical and treatment characteristics were assessed. Group-based trajectory analysis identified trajectories of self-efficacy up to 24 months and predictors. RESULTS: Four trajectories of self-efficacy were identified: group 1 (very confident) 16.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 10.7-21.3%), group 2 (confident) 45.6% (95% CI 40.3-51.0%), group 3 (moderately confident) 29.5% (95% CI 25.1-33.8%) and group 4 (low confidence) 8.9% (95% CI 6.4-11.4%). Greater deprivation, domestic status, more co-morbidities, worse fatigue and pain, lower positivity and greater negativity were significantly associated with lower self-efficacy. There was an increase in mean scores for self-efficacy over time for the whole sample, but this did not reach the cut-off for minimally important differences. At 2 years, the lowest level of confidence to manage was for symptoms or health problems. CONCLUSION: Around 40% of patients had suboptimal levels of confidence to manage illness-related problems with little change from the time of diagnosis across the four groups. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Screening for self-efficacy at diagnosis would enable targeted, early intervention which could in turn enhance health-related quality of life.

Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration.

Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

An internet-based intervention with brief nurse support to manage obesity in primary care (POWeR+): a pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The obesity epidemic has major public health consequences. Expert dietetic and behavioural counselling with intensive follow-up is effective, but resource requirements severely restrict widespread implementation in primary care, where most patients are managed. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an internet-based behavioural intervention (POWeR+) combined with brief practice nurse support in primary care. METHODS: We did this pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial at 56 primary care practices in central and south England. Eligible adults aged 18 years or older with a BMI of 30 kg/m(2) or more (or ≥28 kg/m(2) with hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, or diabetes) registered online with POWeR+-a 24 session, web-based, weight management intervention lasting 6 months. After registration, the website automatically randomly assigned patients (1:1:1), via computer-generated random numbers, to receive evidence-based dietetic advice to swap foods for similar, but healthier, choices and increase fruit and vegetable intake, in addition to 6 monthly nurse follow-up (control group); web-based intervention and face-to-face nurse support (POWeR+Face-to-face [POWeR+F]; up to seven nurse contacts over 6 months); or web-based intervention and remote nurse support (POWeR+Remote [POWeR+R]; up to five emails or brief phone calls over 6 months). Participants and investigators were masked to group allocation at the point of randomisation; masking of participants was not possible after randomisation. The primary outcome was weight loss averaged over 12 months. We did a secondary analysis of weight to measure maintenance of 5% weight loss at months 6 and 12. We modelled the cost-effectiveness of each intervention. We did analysis by intention to treat, with multiple imputation for missing data. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN21244703. FINDINGS: Between Jan 30, 2013, and March 20, 2014, 818 participants were randomly assigned to the control group (n=279), the POWeR+F group (n=269), or the POWeR+R group (n=270). Weight loss averaged over 12 months was recorded in 666 (81%) participants. The control group lost almost 3 kg over 12 months (crude mean weight: baseline 104·38 kg [SD 21·11; n=279], 6 months 101·91 kg [19·35; n=136], 12 months 101·74 kg [19·57; n=227]). The primary imputed analysis showed that compared with the control group, patients in the POWeR+F group achieved an additional weight reduction of 1·5 kg (95% CI 0·6-2·4; p=0·001) averaged over 12 months, and patients in the POWeR+R group achieved an additional 1·3 kg (0·34-2·2; p=0·007). 21% of patients in the control group had maintained a clinically important 5% weight reduction at month 12, compared with 29% of patients in the POWeR+F group (risk ratio 1·56, 0·96-2·51; p=0·070) and 32% of patients in the POWeR+R group (1·82, 1·31-2·74; p=0·004). The incremental overall cost to the health service per kg weight lost with the POWeR+ interventions versus the control strategy was £18 (95% CI -129 to 195) for POWeR+F and -£25 (-268 to 157) for POWeR+R; the probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £100 per kg lost was 88% and 98%, respectively. No adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: Weight loss can be maintained in some individuals by use of novel written material with occasional brief nurse follow-up. However, more people can maintain clinically important weight reductions with a web-based behavioural program and brief remote follow-up, with no increase in health service costs. Future research should assess the extent to which clinically important weight loss can be maintained beyond 1 year. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Properties of bootstrap tests for N-of-1 studies.

N-of-1 study designs involve the collection and analysis of repeated measures data from an individual not using an intervention and using an intervention. This study explores the use of semi-parametric and parametric bootstrap tests in the analysis of N-of-1 studies under a single time series framework in the presence of autocorrelation. When the Type I error rates of bootstrap tests are compared to Wald tests, our results show that the bootstrap tests have more desirable properties. We compare the results for normally distributed errors with those for contaminated normally distributed errors and find that, except when there is relatively large autocorrelation, there is little difference between the power of the parametric and semi-parametric bootstrap tests. We also experiment with two intervention designs: ABAB and AB, and show the ABAB design has more power. The results provide guidelines for designing N-of-1 studies, in the sense of how many observations and how many intervention changes are needed to achieve a certain level of power and which test should be performed.

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.

In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.

Interviewer effects on non-response propensity in longitudinal surveys: a multilevel modelling approach.

The paper investigates two different multilevel approaches, the multilevel cross-classified and the multiple-membership models, for the analysis of interviewer effects on wave non-response in longitudinal surveys. The models proposed incorporate both interviewer and area effects to account for the non-hierarchical structure, the influence of potentially more than one interviewer across waves and possible confounding of area and interviewer effects arising from the non-random allocation of interviewers across areas. The methods are compared by using a data set: the UK Family and Children Survey.

Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making.

Demographic forecasts are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, an appropriate description of this uncertainty is a key underpinning of informed decision making. In recent decades various methods have been developed to describe the uncertainty of future populations and their structures, but the uptake of such tools amongst the practitioners of official population statistics has been lagging behind. In this letter we revisit the arguments for the practical uses of uncertainty assessments in official population forecasts, and address their implications for decision making. We discuss essential challenges, both for the forecasters and forecast users, and make recommendations for the official statistics community.

HIV awareness in China among women of reproductive age (1997-2005): a decomposition analysis.

HIV prevalence in China is less than one per cent, but the absolute number of people living with HIV/AIDS is large and growing. Given the limited scope of any potential cure for HIV, prevention plays a crucial role in controlling the epidemic. This paper examines the evolution of HIV awareness among women in China between 1997 and 2005. A regression decomposition analysis technique was used to disentangle the two main components driving a change in HIV awareness. The results show that HIV awareness has increased over time in China. The gaps between groups are narrowing over time and lower HIV awareness groups are catching up with the higher awareness groups. In 2005 education remained one of the main factors associated with HIV awareness, the other main factors being ethnicity, exposure to TV and newspapers. The increases in HIV awareness observed between 1997 and 2001 are similar between groups of women with different demographic characteristics, whereas between 2003 and 2005 increases are more pronounced among specific groups of women such as women from rural areas, women from Western parts of the country, women who belong to ethnic minorities and those with no education or with only primary education. The results suggest that the main driver of the observed change in HIV awareness over time in China is change in the environment such as in political commitment, interventions and campaigns rather than change in population structure.

RESTORE: an exploratory trial of an online intervention to enhance self-efficacy to manage problems associated with cancer-related fatigue following primary cancer treatment: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: There are over 25 million people worldwide living with or beyond cancer and this number is increasing. Cancer survivors face a range of problems following primary treatment. One of the most frequently reported and distressing symptoms experienced by cancer survivors is fatigue. There is growing support for survivors who are experiencing problems after cancer treatment to engage in supported self-management. To date there is some evidence of effective interventions to manage fatigue in this population; however, to our knowledge there are no online resources that draw on this information to support self-management of fatigue. This paper describes the protocol for an exploratory randomized controlled trial of an online intervention to support self-management of cancer-related fatigue after primary cancer treatment. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a parallel-group two-armed (1:1) exploratory randomized controlled trial including 125 cancer survivors experiencing fatigue (scoring ≥4 on a unidimensional 11-point numeric rating scale for fatigue intensity) within five years of primary treatment completion with curative intent. Participants will be recruited from 13 NHS Trusts across the UK and randomized to either the online intervention (RESTORE), or a leaflet comparator (Macmillan Cancer Backup, Coping with Fatigue). The primary outcome is a change in Perceived Self-Efficacy for Fatigue Self-Management (as measured by the Perceived Self-Efficacy for Fatigue Self-Management Instrument). Secondary outcomes include impact on perception and experience of fatigue (measured by the Brief Fatigue Inventory), and quality of life (measured by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - General and the Personal Wellbeing Index). Outcome measures will be collected at baseline, 6 weeks (completion of intervention), and 3 months. Process evaluation (including telephone interviews with recruiting staff and participants) will determine acceptability of the intervention and trial processes. DISCUSSION: Data from this trial will be used to refine the intervention and contribute to the design of an effectiveness trial. This intervention will be expanded to address other cancer-related problems important to cancer survivors following primary cancer treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN67521059.

Orphanhood and vulnerability: a conduit to poor child health outcomes in Rwanda.

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has caused many children to become orphaned and vulnerable. Recent studies show that orphaned and vulnerable children (OVC) lack the basic necessities for survival and development. These children are particularly at high risk of poor health and poverty. Although the poor health outcomes of these children are well documented, the complexities of the factors that mediate their health outcomes have not been systematically studied. The aim of this paper is to examine how the complex relationships between and within the proximate and socio-economic determinants mediate the poor health outcomes of children through their OVC status. The analyses considered graphical chain modelling of morbidity data from a sample of 3745 children aged below five years from the 2005 Rwandan Demographic and Health Survey. The results show that OVC status influences the risk of childhood morbidity both directly and indirectly and also as a conduit through which other significant proximate factors and socio-economic factors operate.

Consistency in reporting condom use between husbands and wives in Bangladesh.

Consistency in reporting contraceptive use between spouses is little understood, especially in developing settings. This research challenges the accuracy of measuring contraceptive prevalence rate, which is traditionally calculated based on women's responses. Multinomial logistic regression techniques are employed on a couple dataset from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to investigate the consistency in reporting condom use between husbands and wives. The level of inconsistency in reporting condom use was about 46%, of which about 32% was explained by husbands reporting condom use while wives did not, and 14% by wives reporting condom use while husbands did not. Regression analysis showed that couple education and age difference between the spouses are significant determinants of inconsistent reporting behaviour. The findings suggest the need for alternative approaches (questions) in the DHS to ensure consistency in the collection of data related to use of family planning methods.

Connections Between Graphical Gaussian Models and Factor Analysis.

Connections between graphical Gaussian models and classical single-factor models are obtained by parameterizing the single-factor model as a graphical Gaussian model. Models are represented by independence graphs, and associations between each manifest variable and the latent factor are measured by factor partial correlations. Power calculations for the single-factor graphical Gaussian model are facilitated by expressing the manifest partial correlations as functions of the factor partial correlations. The power of selecting a graphical Gaussian model with an association structure between manifest variables compatible with a single-factor model is investigated. The results are illustrated using 2 examples: the 1st is a hypothetical factor model with parallel measures. The 2nd uses data from the British Household Panel Survey on job satisfaction.

A randomised controlled trial of management strategies for acute infective conjunctivitis in general practice.

OBJECTIVE: To assess different management strategies for acute infective conjunctivitis. DESIGN: Open, factorial, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 30 general practices in southern England. PARTICIPANTS: 307 adults and children with acute infective conjunctivitis. INTERVENTION: One of three antibiotic prescribing strategies-immediate antibiotics (chloramphenicol eye drops; n = 104), no antibiotics (controls; n = 94), or delayed antibiotics (n = 109); a patient information leaflet or not; and an eye swab or not. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Severity of symptoms on days 1-3 after consultation, duration of symptoms, and belief in the effectiveness of antibiotics for eye infections. RESULTS: Prescribing strategies did not affect the severity of symptoms but duration of moderate symptoms was less with antibiotics: no antibiotics (controls) 4.8 days, immediate antibiotics 3.3 days (risk ratio 0.7, 95% confidence interval 0.6 to 0.8), delayed antibiotics 3.9 days (0.8, 0.7 to 0.9). Compared with no initial offer of antibiotics, antibiotic use was higher in the immediate antibiotic group: controls 30%, immediate antibiotics 99% (odds ratio 185.4, 23.9 to 1439.2), delayed antibiotics 53% (2.9, 1.4 to 5.7), as was belief in the effectiveness of antibiotics: controls 47%, immediate antibiotics 67% (odds ratio 2.4, 1.1 to 5.0), delayed antibiotics 55% (1.4, 0.7 to 3.0), and intention to reattend for eye infections: controls 40%, immediate antibiotics 68% (3.2, 1.6 to 6.4), delayed antibiotics 41% (1.0, 0.5 to 2.0). A patient information leaflet or eye swab had no effect on the main outcomes. Reattendance within two weeks was less in the delayed compared with immediate antibiotic group: 0.3 (0.1 to 1.0) v 0.7 (0.3 to 1.6). CONCLUSIONS: Delayed prescribing of antibiotics is probably the most appropriate strategy for managing acute conjunctivitis in primary care. It reduces antibiotic use, shows no evidence of medicalisation, provides similar duration and severity of symptoms to immediate prescribing, and reduces reattendance for eye infections. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN32956955 [controlled-trials.com].

Contraceptive awareness among men in Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: A considerable gap exists between contraceptive awareness and use. Traditional approaches to measuring awareness are inadequate to properly understand the linkages between awareness and use. The objective of this study was to examine the degree of men's modern contraceptive awareness in Bangladesh and the associated determinants and further testing of a hypothesis that current contraceptive use confers a high degree of method awareness. METHODS: This study used the couple data set from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (1999-2000). A two-level, multinomial logistic regression was used with the degree of contraceptive awareness as the dependent variable. The degree of awareness was measured by the reported number of modern contraceptive methods known among men aged 15-59 years. Men's responses on method awareness were classified according to those reported spontaneously and probed. RESULTS: Nearly 100% of the study participants reported having heard of at least one method and about half reported awareness of at least eight different methods of contraception. Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that older and educated men were more likely to have reported a high degree of awareness. The findings confirmed our hypothesis that current contraceptive use is likely to confer a high degree of modern method awareness among men (p<0.001), after controlling for other important characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Men who had a low degree of contraceptive awareness seem not properly informed of the wide range of contraceptive options. It is imperative that family planning intervention strategies in Bangladesh should focus on the degree and functional knowledge of contraceptive methods to improve the uptake of especially male-based modern methods.