The adaptive value of epigenetic mutation: Limited in large but high in small peripheral populations.

The fate of populations during range expansions, invasions and environmental changes is largely influenced by their ability to adapt to peripheral habitats. Recent models demonstrate that stable epigenetic modifications of gene expression that occur more frequently than genetic mutations can both help and hinder adaptation in panmictic populations. However, these models do not consider interactions between epimutations and evolutionary forces in peripheral populations. Here, we use mainland-island mathematical models and simulations to explore how the faster rate of epigenetic mutation compared to genetic mutations interacts with migration, selection and genetic drift to affect adaptation in peripheral populations. Our model focuses on cases where epigenetic marks are stably inherited. In a large peripheral population, where the effect of genetic drift is negligible, our analyses suggest that epimutations with random fitness impacts that occur at rates as high as 10-3 increase local adaptation when migration is strong enough to overwhelm divergent selection. When migration is weak relative to selection and epimutations with random fitness impacts decrease adaptation, we find epigenetic modifications must be highly adaptively biased to enhance adaptation. Finally, in small peripheral populations, where genetic drift is strong, epimutations contribute to adaptation under a wider range of evolutionary conditions. Overall, our results suggest that epimutations can change outcomes of adaptation in peripheral populations, which has implications for understanding conservation and range expansions and contractions, especially of small populations.

Transmissible vaccines whose dissemination rates vary through time, with applications to wildlife.

Transmission is a potential property of live viral vaccines that remains largely unexploited but may lie within the realm of many engineering designs. While likely unacceptable for vaccines of humans, transmission may be highly desirable for vaccines of wildlife, both to protect natural populations and also to limit zoonotic transmissions into humans. Defying intuition, transmission alone does not guarantee that a vaccine will perform well: the benefit of transmission over no transmission depends on and increases with the basic reproductive number of the vaccine, R0. The R0 of an infectious agent in a homogeneous population is typically considered to be a fixed number, but some evidence suggests that dissemination of transmissible vaccines may change through time. One obvious possibility is that transmission will be greater from hosts directly vaccinated than from hosts who acquire the vaccine passively, but other types of change might also accrue. Whenever transmission changes over time, the R0 estimated from directly vaccinated hosts will not reflect the vaccine's long term impact. As there is no theory on the consequences of changing transmission rates for a vaccine, we derive conditions for a transmissible vaccine with varying transmission rates to protect a population from pathogen invasion. Being the first in the transmission chain, the R0 from directly vaccinated hosts has a larger effect than those from later steps in the chain. This mathematical property reveals that a transmissible vaccine with low long term transmission may nonetheless realize a big impact if early transmission is high. Furthermore, there may be ways to artificially elevate early transmission, thereby achieving high herd immunity from transmission while ensuring that the vaccine will ultimately die out.

Transmissible Viral Vaccines.

Genetic engineering now enables the design of live viral vaccines that are potentially transmissible. Some designs merely modify a single viral genome to improve on the age-old method of attenuation whereas other designs create chimeras of viral genomes. Transmission has the benefit of increasing herd immunity above that achieved by direct vaccination alone but also increases the opportunity for vaccine evolution, which typically undermines vaccine utility. Different designs have different epidemiological consequences but also experience different evolution. Approaches that integrate vaccine engineering with an understanding of evolution and epidemiology will reap the greatest benefit from vaccine transmission.

Evaluating the promise of recombinant transmissible vaccines.

Transmissible vaccines have the potential to revolutionize infectious disease control by reducing the vaccination effort required to protect a population against a disease. Recent efforts to develop transmissible vaccines focus on recombinant transmissible vaccine designs (RTVs) because they pose reduced risk if intra-host evolution causes the vaccine to revert to its vector form. However, the shared antigenicity of the vaccine and vector may confer vaccine-immunity to hosts infected with the vector, thwarting the ability of the vaccine to spread through the population. We build a mathematical model to test whether a RTV can facilitate disease management in instances where reversion is likely to introduce the vector into the population or when the vector organism is already established in the host population, and the vector and vaccine share perfect cross-immunity. Our results show that a RTV can autonomously eradicate a pathogen, or protect a population from pathogen invasion, when cross-immunity between vaccine and vector is absent. If cross-immunity between vaccine and vector exists, however, our results show that a RTV can substantially reduce the vaccination effort necessary to control or eradicate a pathogen only when continuously augmented with direct manual vaccination. These results demonstrate that estimating the extent of cross-immunity between vector and vaccine is a critical step in RTV design, and that herpesvirus vectors showing facile reinfection and weak cross-immunity are promising.