Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research.

Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.

Northern plants and ozone.

Forests in northern Fennoscandia are mainly composed of the O3-sensitive species--Scots pine and downy, mountain, and silver birches. Seminatural vegetation also contributes to biodiversity, carbon cycling, and ecosystem services as a part of forests, mires, meadows, and road verges. Fumigation experiments show that current O3 concentrations of 30-50 ppb reduce plant biomass production and reproduction. Visible foliar injury is attributable to peak O3 concentrations and relates to fast phenological development and high growth rate. Trees can acclimate to O3-induced water stress by producing more xeromorphic leaves or needles. The direct effects of O3 on grassland vegetation also translate to changes in the structure and size of the soil microbial community, and ecosystem N cycling. It is necessary to reduce the emission of O3 precursors and maintain high biodiversity to protect northern ecosystems. Regular, systematic, countrywide monitoring and validation as well as quantification of the effects of O3 on plants in the Nordic countries are also necessary.

European abatement of surface ozone in a global perspective.

EU's programme Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is presently revising the policy on air quality which will lead to the adoption of a thematic strategy on air pollution under the Sixth Environmental Action Programme by mid-2005. For the abatement of surface ozone it is becoming evident that processes outside European control will be crucial for meeting long-term aims and air quality guidelines in Europe in the future. Measurements and modelling results indicate that there is a strong link between climate change and surface ozone. A warmer and dryer European climate is very likely to lead to increased ozone concentrations. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic emissions in developing economies in Asia are likely to raise the hemispheric background level of ozone. A significant increase in the background concentration of ozone has been observed at several sites in Northern Europe although the underlying causes are not settled. The photochemical formation of tropospheric ozone from increased concentrations of methane and CO may also lead to a higher ozone level on a global scale. Gradually, these effects may outweigh the effect of the reduced European ozone precursor emissions. This calls for a global or hemispheric perspective in the revision of the European air quality policy for ozone.