Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: evaluation and application of an individual-based model.

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies.

Transient response of forests to CO2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America.

The temporal response of forests to CO2-induced climate changes was examined for eastern North America. A forest stand simulation model was used with the assumption that climate will change at a constant rate as atmospheric CO2 doubles, and then as CO2 doubles again. Before being used to project future vegetation trends, the simulation model FORENA was verified by its ability to reproduce long, temporal sequences of plant community change recorded by fossil pollen and by its ability to reproduce today's vegetation. The simulated effects of changing monthly temperature and precipitation included a distinctive dieback of extant trees at most locations, with only partial recovery of biomass in areas of today's temperate deciduous forest. In the southern portion of today's deciduous-coniferous transition forests the simulated dieback was indistinct and recovery by deciduous tree species was rapid. In more northerly transition areas, the dieback not only was clearly expressed, but occurred twice, when new dominant species replaced extant conifers, then were themselves replaced, as climate change continued. Boreal conifers also underwent diebacks and were replaced by deciduous hardwoods more slowly in the north than in the south. Transient responses in species composition and carbon storage continued as much as 300 years after simulated climate changes ceased.