Putting the Mantel test back together again.

The Mantel test has been widely used in ecology and evolution, but over the last two decades it has been frequently critiqued because results were inconsistent with expectations and there were issues with Type I (false-positive) and Type II (false-negative) error rates. Three-matrix extensions of the Mantel test have been challenged for similar reasons. Even the null hypotheses underlying the Mantel test have been questioned. As a result, use of the Mantel test and its variants has been discouraged or limited to special situations. Here, we examine Mantel test criticisms including the lack of agreement between traditional variable-based Pearson correlations (r) and observation-based Mantel correlations (rm ), and the unusual Type I and Type II error rates. We propose an alternate proximity measure that resolves these issues. We use simulations and examples to contrast Mantel results based on Euclidean distance, squared Euclidean distance, and the simple difference (Diff) with traditional bivariate Pearson correlations. We demonstrate that use of the simple difference in Mantel tests can resolve the underlying problems with poor agreement between bivariate Pearson and Mantel correlations, as well as appropriate Type I and Type II errors (i.e., where r = cor(x,y) and rm = cor(dx ,dy ), if dx = Diff(x) and dy = Diff(y), r = rm ). We also show that the simple difference can provide solutions to issues with partial Mantel tests and distance-based MANOVA. Because our results resolve many of the issues with Mantel tests, we hope that these findings will restore the popularity of the Mantel test.

Developing Triggers for Environmental Effects Monitoring Programs for Trout-Perch in the Lower Athabasca River (Canada).

Baseline variations in trout-perch energy use (growth, gonad size) and energy storage (condition, liver size) were characterized between 2009 and 2015 in 8 reaches of the Athabasca River (AB, Canada), including 2 reaches upstream of the city of Fort McMurray (AB, Canada) and 6 reaches downstream of Fort McMurray among existing oil sands operations. Generalized linear models, used to account for background variation, indicated that fork length, gonad size, and liver size decreased, whereas body weight increased, in relation to river discharge, for both male and female trout-perch. Air temperature was positively correlated with liver size and negatively correlated with gonad size and body weight for females, but only positively correlated with gonad weight for males. These linear models explained approximately 20 to 25% of the variation in adjusted body size, and upward of 80% of the variation in adjusted body weight, liver weight, and gonad weight. Residuals from linear models were used to estimate normal ranges of variation for each of the fish population performance measures. Combined, the models and normal ranges can be used to assess subsequent monitoring data, providing potential triggers for follow-up monitoring activities. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:0-0. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1890-1901. © 2019 SETAC.

An Adaptive Environmental Effects Monitoring Framework for Assessing the Influences of Liquid Effluents on Benthos, Water, and Sediments in Aquatic Receiving Environments.

Environmental effects monitoring (EEM) has been traditionally used to evaluate the effects of existing facilities discharging liquid effluents into natural receiving waters in Canada. EEM also has the potential to provide feedback to an ongoing project in an adaptive management context and can inform the design of future projects. EEM, consequently, can and should also be used to test the predictions of effects related to new projects. Despite EEM's potential for widespread applicability, challenges related to the effective implementation of EEM include the use of appropriate study designs and the adoption of tiers for increasing or decreasing monitoring intensity. Herein we describe a template for designing and implementing a 6-tiered EEM program that utilizes information from the project-planning and predevelopment baseline data collection stages to build on forecasts from the initial environmental impact assessment project-design stage and that feeds into an adaptive management process. Movement between the 6 EEM tiers is based on the exceedance of baseline monitoring triggers, forecast triggers, and management triggers at various stages in the EEM process. To distinguish these types of triggers, we review the historical development of numeric and narrative triggers as applied to chemical (water and sediment) and biological (plankton, benthos, fish) endpoints. We also provide an overview of historical study design issues and discuss how the 6 EEM tiers and associated triggers influence the temporal-spatial experimental design options and how the information gained through EEM could be used in an adaptive management context. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:552-566. © 2018 SETAC.

Testing against "normal" with environmental data.

Normal ranges are some fraction of a reference distribution deemed to represent an expected condition, typically 95%. They are frequently used as the basis for generic criteria for monitoring programs designed to test whether a sample is outside of "normal," as in reference-condition approach studies. Normal ranges are also the basis for criteria for more classic environmental effects monitoring programs designed to detect differences in mean responses between reference and exposure areas. Limits on normal ranges are estimated with error that varies depending largely on sample size. Direct comparison of a sample or a mean to estimated limits of a normal range will, with some frequency, lead to incorrect conclusions about whether a sample or a mean is inside or outside the normal range when the sample or the mean is near the limit. Those errors can have significant costs and risk implications. This article describes tests based on noncentral distributions that are appropriate for quantifying the likelihood that samples or means are outside a normal range. These noncentral tests reverse the burden of evidence (assuming that the sample or mean is at or outside normal), and thereby encourage proponents to collect more robust sample sizes that will demonstrate that the sample or mean is not at the limits or beyond the normal range. These noncentral equivalence and interval tests can be applied to uni- and multivariate responses, and to simple (e.g., upstream vs downstream) or more complex (e.g., before vs after, or upstream vs downstream) study designs. Statistical procedures for the various tests are illustrated with benthic invertebrate community data collected as part of the Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) in the vicinity of oil sands operations in northern Alberta, Canada. An Excel workbook with functions and calculations to carry out the various tests is provided in the online Supplemental Data. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:188-197. © 2016 SETAC.

Forecasting cyanobacteria dominance in Canadian temperate lakes.

Predictive models based on broad scale, spatial surveys typically identify nutrients and climate as the most important predictors of cyanobacteria abundance; however these models generally have low predictive power because at smaller geographic scales numerous other factors may be equally or more important. At the lake level, for example, the ability to forecast cyanobacteria dominance is of tremendous value to lake managers as they can use such models to communicate exposure risks associated with recreational and drinking water use, and possible exposure to algal toxins, in advance of bloom occurrence. We used detailed algal, limnological and meteorological data from two temperate lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada to determine the factors that are closely linked to cyanobacteria dominance, and to develop easy to use models to forecast cyanobacteria biovolume. For Brandy Lake (BL), the strongest and most parsimonious model for forecasting % cyanobacteria biovolume (% CB) included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP, and % cyanobacteria biovolume two weeks prior. For Three Mile Lake (TML), the best model for forecasting % CB included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP concentration, and 7-d mean wind speed. The models for forecasting % CB in BL and TML are fundamentally different in their lag periods (BL = lag 1 model and TML = lag 2 model) and in some predictor variables despite the close proximity of the study lakes. We speculate that three main factors (nutrient concentrations, water transparency and lake morphometry) may have contributed to differences in the models developed, and may account for variation observed in models derived from large spatial surveys. Our results illustrate that while forecast models can be developed to determine when cyanobacteria will dominate within two temperate lakes, the models require detailed, lake-specific calibration to be effective as risk-management tools.

Evaluating long-term trends in littoral benthic macroinvertebrate communities of lakes recovering from acid deposition.

The Mann-Kendall test has been proposed as a nonparametric method to evaluate trends in long-term water quality datasets with missing values, serial correlation, and non-normality. However, this test has rarely been used to evaluate long-term trends in biological data. In this study, we used the Mann-Kendall test to evaluate trends in 15 years of data on benthic macroinvertebrate communities from 17 Precambrian Shield lakes. We also used the van Belle and Hughes test of trend homogeneity to assess whether common among-lake temporal trends existed. We assumed that evidence of a common regional trend among lakes would support the hypothesis of long-term biological recovery from past acidification. We found decreasing proportions of Chironomidae and increasing proportions of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) in both single-lake and multi-lake trend analysis. Moreover, six of the nine lakes with significant trends in more than one benthos metric displayed a significant decrease in Chironomidae and increase in EPT concurrently, indicating a shift towards more acid-sensitive taxa. Weak trends in several of the biological metrics indicated that recovery in these lakes has been impeded. Results of this study indicate that the Mann-Kendall and van Belle and Hughes trend tests are useful statistical tools to evaluate long-term patterns in biological data.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of dioxins and furans in lake trout or lake whitefish from the Canadian Great Lakes.

Concentrations of the seventeen 2,3,7,8-substituted, most toxic congeners of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were measured in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) or lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) collected between 1989 and 2003 from the Canadian Great Lakes as a part of the on-going Sport Fish Contaminant Monitoring Program of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. These monitoring data were used to assess temporal trends and spatial variations of these compounds in the Canadian Great Lakes. Toxic equivalents (TEQs) were calculated using the measured congener concentrations and toxicity equivalency factors (TEFs) published by the World Health Organization in 1998. Five congeners, namely 2,3,7,8-TCDD, 2,3,7,8-TCDF, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF, and 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, were the most dominant congeners among the 17 congeners analyzed. The highest TEQs were found for Lake Ontario lake trout (22-54 pg g(-1)) while the TEQs for the other Canadian Great Lakes were 60-95% lower. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's tests performed on TEQs and PCDD/Fs standardized at a mean lake trout length of 60 cm suggest a linearly decreasing trend for PCDD/Fs in lake trout from Lakes Ontario and Huron. There was no monotonously increasing or decreasing trend found for Lake Superior lake trout. The ratios of 2,3,7,8-TCDD to 2,3,7,8-TCDF concentrations were generally constant during the 1989-2003 period with the values being in the order of Lakes Superior (0.05-0.3)

A comparison of the sensitivity of stream benthic community indices to effects associated with mines, pulp and paper mills, and urbanization.

This study examined the relative sensitivities of seven commonly used indices of stream benthic community composition and three multivariate indices to effects associated with mines, pulp and paper mills, and urbanization. The indices included total abundance, number of taxa, diversity (H'), evenness, Hilsenhoff's biotic index (HBI), the BioMAP water quality index (WQI), the percent model affinity (PMA), and the first three ordination axes from a correspondence analysis. The second objective of the study was to determine the degree of redundancy among these indices. Six data sets (two from each of the three types of development) were used to address the objectives. In each data set, replicate benthic samples were collected from reference areas as well as one or more downstream areas exposed to a point-source or non-point-source discharge. The PMA approach and the ordination axes indicated significant differences between the reference and downstream communities for all six data sets (p < 0.05). With the exception of H', each of the other metrics revealed significant effects associated with one or two, but not all three, types of development. For example, the HBI and WQI indicated significant effects associated with pulp and paper mills and urbanization, but not mining. In all studies, effect sizes (i.e., the standardized difference between means for the reference and exposed areas expressed in units of standard deviations [SDs]) exceeded 2 SDs. However, effect sizes for the PMA and the first or second ordination axis scores were generally larger than effect sizes for the other metrics, indicating that these indices were often the most sensitive indicators of development. In addition, a high degree of redundancy was found among the various metrics, perhaps because the effects were large (i.e., >2 SDs). The greater sensitivity of the ordination axes and the PMA approach emphasizes their value as indices of benthic community composition. As a result, we recommend that any suite of indices used for assessing benthic communities should include these types of multivariate metrics.

Impacts of golf courses on macroinvertebrate community structure in Precambrian shield streams.

The influence of golf course operation on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in Precambrian Shield streams was evaluated using rapid bioassessment and the reference condition approach. Streams were sampled for water chemistry and invertebrates in 1999 and 2000, six on operational golf courses, and seven in forested reference locations. Correspondence analysis (CA) was used to determine the major patterns in the macroinvertebrate taxa, and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to evaluate relationships with environmental variables. The reference streams were used to define the normal range of variation for a variety of summary indices to evaluate the golf course streams. In all cases, golf course streams were higher in nutrients and dissolved ions and more alkaline than the forested reference streams. There was considerable variability in the macroinvertebrate fauna from the golf course streams, which was related to differences in golf course land management practices and to the potential influence of highway runoff. Of the management practices evaluated, fertilizer application rates in particular were important, as was the presence of ponds upstream on the course. Invertebrate taxa with higher abundances in golf course streams included Turbellaria, Isopoda, Amphipoda, Zygoptera, and Trombidiformes. Taxa more common in the reference streams included Ephemeroptera, Megaloptera, Culicidae, and Plecoptera. There were marked differences in the overall benthic macroinvertebrate community in three of the six golf course streams studied relative to the forested reference streams, suggesting that golf course land management on the Precambrian Shield can be associated with significant differences in macroinvertebrate community structure.

The Temporal Coherence of Zooplankton Population Abundances in Neighboring North-Temperate Lakes.

We investigated the temporal coherence (i.e., the correlation or synchrony between time series) of annual abundances among populations of freshwater zooplankton in eight lakes in Ontario, Canada, from 1980 to 1992. We estimated temporal coherence using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ri). While values of ri were relatively low among comparisons of all eight lakes, they were statistically significant for three of the seven common cladoceran and copepod taxa (Bosmina longirostris, Leptodiaptomus minutus, and Mesocyclops edax). These significant positive correlations imply that a portion of the interannual variation in abundance was produced by factors operating on a scale larger than the individual lake catchments. Because the eight-lake analysis might obscure strong, but conflicting, patterns among lakes in the region, we identified homogeneous and temporally coherent subsets of lakes for each species using an exploratory stepwise deletion procedure. The resultant homogeneous subsets exhibited much greater temporal coherence, accounting for 47% (Eubosmina) to 84% (Leptodiaptomus) of the interannual variation in abundance. Our results suggest that the factors affecting annual variation in zooplankton abundance must be sought both within lakes and beyond their watersheds.