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Environ Res ; 183: 109190, 2020 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32311903

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between climate variables, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and large outbreaks of dengue in China. METHODS: We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) to analyse the influence of climate factors on dengue occurrence and predict dengue outbreak areas in China. Furthermore, we formulated a generalised additive model (GAM) to quantify the impact of the EASM on dengue occurrence in mainland China from 1980 to 2016. RESULTS: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter had a 62.6% contribution to dengue outbreaks. Southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces are more vulnerable to dengue emergence and resurgence. In addition, we found population density had a 68.7% contribution to dengue widely distribution in China using ENMs. Statistical analysis indicated a dome-shaped association between EASM and dengue outbreak using GAM, with the greatest impact in the South-East of China. Besides, there was a positive nonlinear association between monthly average temperature and dengue occurrence. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the influence of climate factors and East Asian summer monsoon on dengue outbreaks, providing a framework for future studies on the association between climate change and vector-borne diseases.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Dengue , Estações do Ano , China/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Chuva
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