Satellite-estimated air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea: Patterns and variations during 2003-2019.

The Bohai Sea (BS), Yellow Sea (YS), and East China Sea (ECS) together form one of the largest marginal sea systems in the world, including enclosed and semi-enclosed ocean margins and a wide continental shelf influenced by the Changjiang River and the strong western boundary current (Kuroshio). Based on in situ seawater pCO2 data collected on 51 cruises/legs over the past two decades, a satellite retrieval algorithm for seawater pCO2 was developed by combining the semi-mechanistic algorithm and machine learning method (MeSAA-ML-ECS). MeSAA-ML-ECS introduced semi-analytical parameters, including the temperature-dependent seawater pCO2 (pCO2,therm) and upwelling index (UISST), to characterise the combined effect of atmospheric CO2 forcing, thermodynamic effects, and multiple mixing processes on seawater pCO2. The best-selected machine learning algorithm is XGBoost. The satellite-derived pCO2 achieved excellent performance in this complicated marginal sea, with low root mean square error (RMSE = 20 µatm) and mean absolute percentage deviation (APD = 4.12 %) for independent in situ validation dataset. During 2003-2019, the annual average CO2 sinks in the BS, YS, ECS, and entire study area were 0.16 ± 0.26, 3.85 ± 0.68, 14.80 ± 3.09, and 18.81 ± 3.81 Tg C/yr, respectively. Under continuously increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the BS changed from a weak source to a weak sink, the YS experienced interannual fluctuations but did not show significant trend, while the ECS acted as a strong sink with CO2 absorption increased from ∼10 Tg C in 2003 to ∼19 Tg C in 2019. In total, CO2 uptake in the entire study area increased by 85 % in 17 years. For the first time, we present the most refined variation in the satellite-derived pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux dataset. These complete ocean carbon sink statistics and new insights will benefit further research on carbon fixation and its potential capacity.

The carbon sink of the Coral Sea, the world's second largest marginal sea, weakened during 2006-2018.

The latest reports show that the ocean absorbs approximately 26 % of anthropogenic CO2 and that the carbon sink of the global ocean (air-sea CO2 flux) is continually increasing, while variations in different marginal seas are complicated. The Coral Sea, the second largest marginal sea in the world, is characterized by a generally oligotrophic basin and borders the biodiversity hotspot of Great Barrier Reef. In this study, we proposed a semianalytical method and reconstructed the first high-resolution satellite-based pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux dataset from 2006 to 2018 for the Coral Sea. This dataset performed well in the basin (RMSE<10 µatm, R2 > 0.72) and coral reef areas (RMSE<12 µatm, R2 > 0.8) based on validation by a massive independent dataset. We found that sea surface pCO2 is increasing (1.8 to 2.7 µatm/year) under the forcing of increasing atmospheric CO2, and the pCO2 growth rate in water is faster than that in the atmosphere. The combination of increasing sea surface pCO2, high pCO2 seawater from coral reef areas, and the low depletion capacity of the oligotrophic basin led to a gradual weakening of the carbon sink in the Coral Sea, with the 2016 carbon sink being 52 % of that in 2006. This weakening was more pronounced after strong El Niño events (e.g., 2007, 2010, and 2016), with the corresponding high SST and low wind speed further weakening the carbon sink. This understanding of the long-term change in the Coral Sea provides new insight on the carbonate system variation and carbon sink capacity evolution in seawater under increasing atmospheric CO2.