Assessing the Grell-Freitas Convection Parameterization in the NASA GEOS Modeling System.

We implemented and began to evaluate an alternative convection parameterization for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM). The proposed parameterization follows the mass flux approach with several closures, for equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection, and includes scale and aerosol aware functionalities. Recently, we extended the scheme to a trimodal spectral size distribution of allowed convective plumes to simulate the transition among shallow, congestus, and deep convection regimes. In addition, the inclusion of a new closure for nonequilibrium convection resulted in a substantial gain of realism in the model representation of the diurnal cycle of convection over the land. We demonstrated the scale-dependence functionality with a cascade of global-scale simulations from a nominal horizontal resolution of 50 km down to 6 km. The ability to realistically simulate the diurnal cycle of precipitation over various regions of the earth was verified against several remote sensing-derived intradiurnal precipitation estimates. We extended the model performance evaluation for weather-scale applications by bringing together some available operational short-range weather forecast models and global atmospheric reanalyses. Our results demonstrate that the GEOS GCM with the alternative convective parameterization has good properties and competitive skill in comparison with state-of-the-art observations and numerical simulations.

The Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): an integrated environmental model tuned for tropical areas.

We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System where different previous versions for weather, chemistry and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated software system. The new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and memory usage efficiency. Together with the description of the main features are examples of the quality of the transport scheme for scalars, radiative fluxes on surface and model simulation of rainfall systems over South America in different spatial resolutions using a scale-aware convective parameterization. Besides, the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the convection and carbon dioxide concentration over the Amazon Basin, as well as carbon dioxide fluxes from biogenic processes over a large portion of South America are shown. Atmospheric chemistry examples present model performance in simulating near-surface carbon monoxide and ozone in Amazon Basin and Rio de Janeiro megacity. For tracer transport and dispersion, it is demonstrated the model capabilities to simulate the volcanic ash 3-d redistribution associated with the eruption of a Chilean volcano. Then, the gain of computational efficiency is described with some details. BRAMS has been applied for research and operational forecasting mainly in South America. Model results from the operational weather forecast of BRAMS on 5 km grid spacing in the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, INPE/Brazil, since 2013 are used to quantify the model skill of near surface variables and rainfall. The scores show the reliability of BRAMS for the tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Requirements for keeping this modeling system competitive regarding on its functionalities and skills are discussed. At last, we highlight the relevant contribution of this work on the building up of a South American community of model developers.

Virtual water and water self-sufficiency in agricultural and livestock products in Brazil.

Virtual water trade is often considered a solution for restricted water availability in many regions of the world. Brazil is the world leader in the production and export of various agricultural and livestock products. The country is either a strong net importer or a strong net exporter of these products. The objective of this study is to determine the volume of virtual water contained in agricultural and livestock products imported/exported by Brazil from 1997 to 2012, and to define the water self-sufficiency index of agricultural and livestock products in Brazil. The indexes of water scarcity (WSI), water dependency (WDI) and water self-sufficiency (WSSI) were calculated for each Brazilian state. These indexes and the virtual water balance were calculated following the methodology developed by Chapagain and Hoekstra (2008) and Hoekstra and Hung (2005). The total water exports and imports embedded in agricultural and livestock products were 5.28 × 1010 and 1.22 × 1010 Gm3 yr-1, respectively, which results in positive virtual water balance of 4.05 × 1010 Gm3 yr-1. Brazil is either a strong net importer or a strong net exporter of agricultural and livestock products among the Mercosur countries. Brazil has a positive virtual water balance of 1.85 × 1010 Gm3 yr-1. The indexes used in this study reveal that Brazil is self-sufficient in food production, except for a few products such as wheat and rice. Horticultural products (tomato, onion, potato, cassava and garlic) make up a unique product group with negative virtual water balance in Brazil.