Fiscal responses to COVID-19 outbreak for healthy economies: Modelling with big data analytics.

Fiscal responses to the COVID-19 crisis have varied a lot across countries. Using a panel of 127 countries over two separate subperiods between 2020 and 2021, this paper seeks to determine the extent that fiscal responses contributed to the spread and containment of the disease. The study first documents that rich countries, which had the largest total and health-related fiscal responses, achieved the lowest fatality rates, defined as the ratio of COVID-related deaths to cases, despite having the largest recorded numbers of cases and fatalities. The next most successful were less developed economies, whose smaller total fiscal responses included a larger health-related component than emerging market economies. The study used a promising big data analytics technology, the random forest algorithm, to determine which factors explained a country's fatality rate. The findings indicate that a country's fatality ratio over the next period can be almost entirely predicted by its economic development level, fiscal expenditure (both total and health-related), and initial fatality ratio. Finally, the study conducted a counterfactual exercise to show that, had less developed economies implemented the same fiscal responses as the rich (as a share of GDP), then their fatality ratios would have declined by 20.47% over the first period and 2.59% over the second one.

Big data analytics and COVID-19: investigating the relationship between government policies and cases in Poland, Turkey and South Korea.

We used big data analytics for exploring the relationship between government response policies, human mobility trends and numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases comparatively in Poland, Turkey and South Korea. We collected daily mobility data of retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential areas. For quantifying the actions taken by governments and making a fairness comparison between these countries, we used stringency index values measured with the 'Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker'. For the Turkey case, we also developed a model by implementing the multilayer perceptron algorithm for predicting numbers of cases based on the mobility data. We finally created scenarios based on the descriptive statistics of the mobility data of these countries and generated predictions on the numbers of cases by using the developed model. Based on the descriptive analysis, we pointed out that while Poland and Turkey had relatively closer values and distributions on the study variables, South Korea had more stable data compared to Poland and Turkey. We mainly showed that while the stringency index of the current day was associated with mobility data of the same day, the current day's mobility was associated with the numbers of cases 1 month later. By obtaining 89.3% prediction accuracy, we also concluded that the use of mobility data and implementation of big data analytics technique may enable decision-making in managing uncertain environments created by outbreak situations. We finally proposed implications for policymakers for deciding on the targeted levels of mobility to maintain numbers of cases in a manageable range based on the results of created scenarios.

Analysis of Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphisms in Patients with Familial Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Genetic and environmental factors are important in the development of the multiple sclerosis (MS). Vitamin D shows its effects on the immune system with the vitamin D receptor (VDR) in the nucleus. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the VDR gene can lead to alterations in vitamin D functions and metabolism.Taq I, Apa I, Fok I and Bsm I polymorphisms and MS associations have been investigated in many studies. VDR gene polymorphism has not been previously studied in patients with familial MS. AIM: We aimed to investigate the relationship between familial MS patients present in Turkish population and VDR genotypes Taq I, Apa I and Fok I polymorphisms. METHODS: 29 patients with a family history of MS and 120 healthy control subjects were included in the present study. We studied present VDR genotypes Taq I, Apa I and Fok I polymorphisms. RESULTS: We observed a significant difference between controls and patient group only in Taq I polymorphism (p: 0.025). Homozygousity of G allele was not seen in the patients whereas in controls frequency of that genotype was p:0.208. When gender was considered males show significant difference for GG genotype. There were no significant association for the Apa I and Fok I polymorphisms. CONCLUSION: Although our findings suggest association between VDR Taq I polymorphism and the familial MS, additional studies are needed to establish detailed relationships.

The association between vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and multiple sclerosis in a Turkish population.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). Genetic and environmental factors are important in disease development. Many studies have investigated the relationship between MS and VDR polymorphisms. VDR gene polymorphism has not been previously studied in Turkish MS patients. We aimed to investigate the relationship between MS and VDR genotypes Taq I, Apa I and Fok I polymorphisms in a Turkish population. METHODS: 167 MS patients and 146 healthy control subjects were included in the present study. MS and the VDR TaqI (rs731236), ApaI (rs7975232), and FokI (rs2228570) polymorphisms were investigated. RESULTS: The study enrolled 167 patients (121 females, 46 males) with MS and 146 healthy individuals (88 females, 58 males). The frequency of only the Fok I polymorphism differed significantly between the two groups (p = 0.002). The TaqI (rs731236) and ApaI (rs7975232) genotype distributions were not significantly different between MS patients and healthy controls (p = 0.626 and p = 0.990, respectively). Also there were no significant gender difference between patients and controls for Taq I and Apa I. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we found a significant association between MS and the FokI polymorphism in our region of Turkey. However, the results may be different in other populations. More epidemiological and genetic studies are needed to explain the association between genetic factors and MS.

Mutation detection in patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia using heteroduplex and single strand conformation polymorphism analysis by capillary electrophoresis.

Mutations in the low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) gene give rise to familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH). In this study we have used a 96-well capillary machine (MegaBACE, Amersham) to develop a single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) and heteroduplex method for the detection of mutations in the LDLR gene. We have applied this technique to 101 different mutations including single nucleotide polymorphisms in different exons of the LDLR gene. Hundred percent of these nucleotide alterations were distinguished by this method. We suggest this fast, reliable and safe method for diagnosis of FH in large patient groups.