Evaluation of a machine-learning model based on laboratory parameters for the prediction of acute leukaemia subtypes: a multicentre model development and validation study in France.

BACKGROUND: Acute leukaemias are life-threatening haematological cancers characterised by the infiltration of transformed immature haematopoietic cells in the blood and bone marrow. Prompt and accurate diagnosis of the three main acute leukaemia subtypes (ie acute lymphocytic leukaemia [ALL], acute myeloid leukaemia [AML], and acute promyelocytic leukaemia [APL]) is of utmost importance to guide initial treatment and prevent early mortality but requires cytological expertise that is not always available. We aimed to benchmark different machine-learning strategies using a custom variable selection algorithm to propose an extreme gradient boosting model to predict leukaemia subtypes on the basis of routine laboratory parameters. METHODS: This multicentre model development and validation study was conducted with data from six independent French university hospital databases. Patients aged 18 years or older diagnosed with AML, APL, or ALL in any one of these six hospital databases between March 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2021, were recruited. 22 routine parameters were collected at the time of initial disease evaluation; variables with more than 25% of missing values in two datasets were not used for model training, leading to the final inclusion of 19 parameters. The performances of the final model were evaluated on internal testing and external validation sets with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs), and clinically relevant cutoffs were chosen to guide clinical decision making. The final tool, Artificial Intelligence Prediction of Acute Leukemia (AI-PAL), was developed from this model. FINDINGS: 1410 patients diagnosed with AML, APL, or ALL were included. Data quality control showed few missing values for each cohort, with the exception of uric acid and lactate dehydrogenase for the cohort from Hôpital Cochin. 679 patients from Hôpital Lyon Sud and Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Clermont-Ferrand were split into the training (n=477) and internal testing (n=202) sets. 731 patients from the four other cohorts were used for external validation. Overall AUCs across all validation cohorts were 0·97 (95% CI 0·95-0·99) for APL, 0·90 (0·83-0·97) for ALL, and 0·89 (0·82-0·95) for AML. Cutoffs were then established on the overall cohort of 1410 patients to guide clinical decisions. Confident cutoffs showed two (0·14%) wrong predictions for ALL, four (0·28%) wrong predictions for APL, and three (0·21%) wrong predictions for AML. Use of the overall cutoff greatly reduced the number of missing predictions; diagnosis was proposed for 1375 (97·5%) of 1410 patients for each category, with only a slight increase in wrong predictions. The final model evaluation across both the internal testing and external validation sets showed accuracy of 99·5% for ALL diagnosis, 98·8% for AML diagnosis, and 99·7% for APL diagnosis in the confident model and accuracy of 87·9% for ALL diagnosis, 86·3% for AML diagnosis, and 96·1% for APL diagnosis in the overall model. INTERPRETATION: AI-PAL allowed for accurate diagnosis of the three main acute leukaemia subtypes. Based on ten simple laboratory parameters, its broad availability could help guide initial therapies in a context where cytological expertise is lacking, such as in low-income countries. FUNDING: None.

Elevated plasma IL-6 and CRP levels are associated with adverse clinical outcomes and death in critically ill SARS-CoV-2 patients: inflammatory response of SARS-CoV-2 patients.

BACKGROUND: SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for high morbidity and mortality worldwide, mostly due to the exacerbated inflammatory response observed in critically ill patients. However, little is known about the kinetics of the systemic immune response and its association with survival in SARS-CoV-2+ patients admitted in ICU. We aimed to compare the immuno-inflammatory features according to organ failure severity and in-ICU mortality. METHODS: Six-week multicentre study (N = 3) including SARS-CoV-2+ patients admitted in ICU. Analysis of plasma biomarkers at days 0 and 3-4 according to organ failure worsening (increase in SOFA score) and 60-day mortality. RESULTS: 101 patients were included. Patients had severe respiratory diseases with PaO2/FiO2 of 155 [111-251] mmHg), SAPS II of 37 [31-45] and SOFA score of 4 [3-7]. Eighty-three patients (83%) required endotracheal intubation/mechanical ventilation and among them, 64% were treated with prone position. IL-1ß was barely detectable. Baseline IL-6 levels positively correlated with organ failure severity. Baseline IL-6 and CRP levels were significantly higher in patients in the worsening group than in the non-worsening group (278 [70-622] vs. 71 [29-153] pg/mL, P < 0.01; and 178 [100-295] vs. 100 [37-213] mg/L, P < 0.05, respectively). Baseline IL-6 and CRP levels were significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors but fibrinogen levels and lymphocyte counts were not different between groups. After adjustment on SOFA score and time from symptom onset to first dosage, IL-6 and CRP remained significantly associated with mortality. IL-6 changes between Day 0 and Day 3-4 were not different according to the outcome. A contrario, kinetics of CRP and lymphocyte count were different between survivors and non-survivors. CONCLUSIONS: In SARS-CoV-2+ patients admitted in ICU, a systemic pro-inflammatory signature was associated with clinical worsening and 60-day mortality.