Elevated fish densities extend kilometres from oil and gas platforms.

Thousands of offshore oil and gas platforms have been installed throughout the world's oceans and more structures are being installed as part of the transition to renewable energy. These structures increase the availability of ecological niches by providing hard substrate in midwater and complex 3D habitat on the seafloor. This can lead to 'hotspots' of biodiversity, or increased densities of flora and fauna, which potentially spill over into the local area. However, the distances over which these higher densities extend (the 'range of influence') can be highly variable. Fish aggregate at such structures, but the range of influence and any implications for wider fish populations, are unclear. We investigated the relationship between fish and platform areal densities using high resolution fisheries acoustic data. Data were collected in the waters surrounding the vessel exclusions zones around 16 oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, and throughout the wider area. We estimated densities of schooling fish using echo-integration, and densities of non-schooling fish using echo-counting. At 10 platforms, non-schooling fish densities were elevated near the platform relative to background levels in the equivalent wider area. The range of influence, defined here as the range to which fish densities were elevated above background, varied from 0.8 to 23 km. In areas of high platform density, fish schools were encountered more often, and non-schooling fish densities were higher, when controlling for other sources of environmental variation. This is the first time such long-range effects have been identified; previously, ranges of influence have been reported in the order of just 10s-100s of metres. These findings suggest that the environmental impact of these structures may extend further than previously thought, which may be relevant in the context of upcoming management decisions around the decommissioning of these structures.

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs.

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.

Ecosystem approach to harvesting in the Arctic: Walking the tightrope between exploitation and conservation in the Barents Sea.

Projecting the consequences of warming and sea-ice loss for Arctic marine food web and fisheries is challenging due to the intricate relationships between biology and ice. We used StrathE2EPolar, an end-to-end (microbes-to-megafauna) food web model incorporating ice-dependencies to simulate climate-fisheries interactions in the Barents Sea. The model was driven by output from the NEMO-MEDUSA earth system model, assuming RCP 8.5 atmospheric forcing. The Barents Sea was projected to be > 95% ice-free all year-round by the 2040s compared to > 50% in the 2010s, and approximately 2 °C warmer. Fisheries management reference points (FMSY and BMSY) for demersal fish (cod, haddock) were projected to increase by around 6%, indicating higher productivity. However, planktivorous fish (capelin, herring) reference points were projected to decrease by 15%, and upper trophic levels (birds, mammals) were strongly sensitive to planktivorous fish harvesting. The results indicate difficult trade-offs ahead, between harvesting and conservation of ecosystem structure and function.

The effect of viral plasticity on the persistence of host-virus systems.

Phenotypic plasticity plays an important role in the survival of individuals. In microbial host-virus systems, previous studies have shown the stabilizing effect that host plasticity has on the coexistence of the system. By contrast, it remains uncertain how the dependence of the virus on the metabolism of the host (i.e. "viral plasticity") shapes bacteria-phage population dynamics in general, or the stability of the system in particular. Moreover, bacteria-phage models that do not consider viral plasticity are now recognised as overly simplistic. For these reasons, here we focus on the effect of viral plasticity on the stability of the system under different environmental conditions. We compared the predictions from a standard bacteria-phage model, which neglects plasticity, with those of a modification that includes viral plasticity. We investigated under which conditions viral plasticity promotes coexistence, with or without oscillatory dynamics. Our analysis shows that including viral plasticity reveals coexistence in regions of the parameter space where models without plasticity predict a collapse of the system. We also show that viral plasticity tends to reduce population oscillations, although this stabilizing effect is not consistently observed across environmental conditions: plasticity may instead reinforce dynamic feedbacks between the host, the virus, and the environment, which leads to wider oscillations. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamic control of bacteriophage on host populations observed in nature.

Population density and temperature correlate with long-term trends in somatic growth rates and maturation schedules of herring and sprat.

We examine long-term trends in the average growth rates and maturation schedules of herring and sprat populations using survey data collected from the North Sea and west of Scotland since the 1960s and 1980s respectively. Otolith age data and maturity data are used to calculate time series of mean lengths at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, and probabilistic maturation reaction norms. As the growth and maturation of fish is known to be influenced by temperature and stock abundances, we account for these variables using Generalised Additive Models. Each of the herring populations displayed either steady declines in mean length across multiple age groups, or declines in length followed years later by some recovery. Depending on region, lengths at age of sprat increased or decreased over time. Varying temporal trends in maturation propensity at age and length were observed across herring populations. Many of the trends in growth rate and maturation were correlated to population abundance and/or temperature. In general, abundance is shown to be negatively correlated to growth rates in herring and sprat, and positively correlated with maturation propensity in herring. Temperature is also shown to be correlated to growth and maturation, and although the effect is consistent within species, the temperature effects differ between herring and sprat. This study provides detailed information about long-term trends in growth and maturation, which is lacking for some of these pelagic stocks, especially in the west of Scotland.

Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus.

Diapause plays a key role in the life cycle of high latitude zooplankton. During diapause, animals avoid starving in winter by living in deep waters where metabolism is lower and met by lipid reserves. Global warming is therefore expected to shorten the maximum potential diapause duration by increasing metabolic rates and by reducing body size and lipid reserves. This will alter the phenology of zooplankton, impact higher trophic levels and disrupt biological carbon pumps. Here, we project the impacts of climate change on the key North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus under IPCC RCP 8.5. Potential diapause duration is modelled in relation to body size and overwintering temperature. The projections show pronounced geographic variations. Potential diapause duration reduces by more than 30% in the Western Atlantic, whereas in the key overwintering centre of the Norwegian Sea it changes only marginally. Surface temperature rises, which reduce body size and lipid reserves, will have a similar impact to deep-water changes on diapause in many regions. Because deep-water warming lags that at the surface, animals in the Labrador Sea could offset warming impacts by diapausing in deeper waters. However, the ability to control diapause depth may be limited.

Cascading ecological effects of eliminating fishery discards.

Discarding by fisheries is perceived as contrary to responsible harvesting. Legislation seeking to end the practice is being introduced in many jurisdictions. However, discarded fish are food for a range of scavenging species; so, ending discarding may have ecological consequences. Here we investigate the sensitivity of ecological effects to discarding policies using an ecosystem model of the North Sea--a region where 30-40% of trawled fish catch is currently discarded. We show that landing the entire catch while fishing as usual has conservation penalties for seabirds, marine mammals and seabed fauna, and no benefit to fish stocks. However, combining landing obligations with changes in fishing practices to limit the capture of unwanted fish results in trophic cascades that can benefit birds, mammals and most fish stocks. Our results highlight the importance of considering the broader ecosystem consequences of fishery management policy, since species interactions may dissipate or negate intended benefits.

Understanding patterns and processes in models of trophic cascades.

Climate fluctuations and human exploitation are causing global changes in nutrient enrichment of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and declining abundances of apex predators. The resulting trophic cascades have had profound effects on food webs, leading to significant economic and societal consequences. However, the strength of cascades-that is the extent to which a disturbance is diminished as it propagates through a food web-varies widely between ecosystems, and there is no formal theory as to why this should be so. Some food chain models reproduce cascade effects seen in nature, but to what extent is this dependent on their formulation? We show that inclusion of processes represented mathematically as density-dependent regulation of either consumer uptake or mortality rates is necessary for the generation of realistic 'top-down' cascades in simple food chain models. Realistically modelled 'bottom-up' cascades, caused by changing nutrient input, are also dependent on the inclusion of density dependence, but especially on mortality regulation as a caricature of, e.g. disease and parasite dynamics or intraguild predation. We show that our conclusions, based on simple food chains, transfer to a more complex marine food web model in which cascades are induced by varying river nutrient inputs or fish harvesting rates.

Sea-age variation in maiden Atlantic salmon spawners: phenotypic plasticity or genetic polymorphism?

Atlantic salmon exhibit a partially heritable polymorphism in which the morphs are distinguished by the duration and location of the sea-phase of their life-cycle. These morphs co-occur, albeit in characteristically different proportions, in most Scottish rivers and in both the spring and autumn spawner runs; early running fish being generally associated with upland spawning locations while late running fish are associated with lowland spawning. Thus, differences in riverine and marine environment appear to be linked to differences in the relative abundance of the morphs, rather than to the specific morph which is optimally adapted. In this paper, we report a model-based synthetic study aimed at understanding the key dynamic elements which determine the long-term stability of this polymorphism, and thus determine the relative abundance of the various sea-age morphs. Given the recent accumulation of evidence for a genetic basis for the polymorphism, we argue that the key dynamic mechanism which equalises the realized fitness of the sea-age morphs must be one or more morph-specific density dependencies in the riverine phase of the life-history. We explore a number of specific mechanisms, firmly based in known salmon biology, by which such morph-specific density dependence could occur and investigate the robustness of the co-existence which they imply. We conclude that the co-occurrence of multiple sea-age morphs of Atlantic salmon in Scottish rivers is a stable genetic polymorphism, maintained by some combination of physical separation and asymmetric competition between spawners of different morphs or the riverine stages of their offspring or both.