Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector.

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

Quantifying Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Water Heaters.

Methane emissions from natural gas appliances remain the least characterized portion of the fossil-fuel supply chain. Here we examine water heaters from 64 northern California homes to (1) quantify methane emissions from natural gas leaks and incomplete combustion while off, turning on or off, and in steady-state operation from 35 homes; and (2) characterize daily usage patterns over ∼1-2 months per water heater to estimate activity factors from 46 homes. Individual tankless water heaters emitted 2390 [95% CI: 2250, 2540] g CH4 yr-1 on average, 0.93% [0.87%, 0.99%] of their natural gas consumed, primarily from on/off pulses. Storage water heaters emitted 1400 [1240, 1560] g CH4 yr-1 on average, 0.39% [0.34%, 0.43%] of their natural gas consumption. Despite higher methane emissions, tankless water heaters generate 29% less CO2e20 than storage water heaters because they use less energy to heat a unit of water. Scaling our measured emissions by the number of storage and tankless water heaters in the United States (56.8 and 1.2 million, respectively), water heaters overall emitted an estimated 82.3 [73.2, 91.5] Gg CH4 yr-1, 0.40% [0.35%, 0.44%] of all natural gas consumed by these appliances, comparable in percentage to the EPA's estimate of methane emissions from upstream natural gas production.