Potential and active family caregivers: changing networks and the "sandwich generation".

Informal family care giving has been a traditional mainstay of care for the frail elderly. As the Baby Boomers approach retirement and old age, it is not clear that society can continue to rely on informal arrangements. The 1984 and 1994 National Long Term Care Surveys were used as sources for examining changes over a decade in the population of chronically disabled elderly, their sources of care, and the characteristics of family caregivers. The results showed that although the total number of active family caregivers declined, a constant number of primary caregivers was looking after recipients who were more severely disabled. Members of the "sandwich generation" and full-time workers maintained or even increased their participation as primary caregivers. The competing demands confronting these caregivers and the higher disability levels among care recipients probably contributed to the growing pattern of reliance on formal care, a situation that is likely to continue.

The effect of longevity on spending for acute and long-term care.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of the population made up of elderly persons in the United States is projected to increase from 13 percent of the population in 2000 to 20 percent by 2030. The implications for health care expenditures may be profound, because elderly persons use health care services at a greater rate than younger persons. We estimated total expenditures for acute and long-term care from the age of 65 years until death and in the last two years of life. METHODS: We combined data from Medicare, the National Mortality Followback Survey, and the National Medical Expenditure Survey to estimate total national expenditures for health care according to the age at death. We also simulated expenditures with the use of projected demographic characteristics of two cohorts: people turning 65 in 2000 and those turning 65 in 2015. RESULTS: Total expenditures (in 1996 dollars) from the age of 65 years until death increase substantially with longevity, from $31,181 for persons who die at the age of 65 years to more than $200,000 for those who die at the age of 90, in part because of steep increases in nursing home expenditures for very old persons. Spending in the last two years of life also increases with longevity, but a reduction in Medicare expenditures ($37,000 for persons who die at the age of 75 years and $21,000 for those who die at the age of 95) moderates the effect of the increase in nursing home expenditures ($6,000 for those who die at the age of 75 years and $32,000 for those who die at the age of 95). Health care spending for women is consistently higher than that for men, after adjustment for the increased longevity of women. Simulations show that increased longevity after the age of 65 years has a relatively small effect on the anticipated increase in spending, especially for services covered by Medicare, from 2000 to 2015. The effects of the larger number of people born in 1950 than in 1935 and the larger number of people surviving to the age of 65 years are much more important. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, the effect of longevity on expenditures for acute care differs from its effect on expenditures for long-term care. Acute care expenditures, principally for hospital care and physicians' services, increase at a reduced rate as the age at death increases, whereas expenditures for long-term care increase at an accelerated rate. Increases in longevity after the age of 65 years may result in greater spending for long-term care, but the increase in the number of elderly persons has a more important effect on total spending.

The amount, distribution, and timing of lifetime nursing home use.

OBJECTIVES: Information on lifetime nursing home use is needed to design and evaluate long-term care financing reforms. Whereas a number of studies have estimated mean lifetime use or its distribution, very little is known about variation in use among subgroups of the population, the timing of use, the number of distinct episodes of care experienced by nursing home users, and the risk and expected use at ages other than age 65. The purpose of the study was to fill these gaps in knowledge. METHODS: The study used a data base constructed to represent decedents who used nursing homes. The sample was derived from the sample of discharges collected as part of the 1985 National Nursing Home Survey. Weights were constructed for the purpose of making projections of remaining lifetime nursing home use at selected ages in 1995. RESULTS: There was considerable variation in lifetime use among demographic groups. Overall, estimates of the amount of use remaining at selected ages tended to be relatively constant at approximately 1 year. Mean years until nursing home admission, however, decreased sharply from almost 40 years at age 45 to approximately 5 years at age 85. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of lifetime use was highly skewed, providing support for efforts to spread risk through public or private insurance. With roughly one quarter of all use occurring after 5 years of nursing home residence, however, a substantial share of use would exceed benefit maximums that are part of many proposals for public financing of long-term care as well as private insurance policies.

Lifetime patterns of payment for nursing home care.

Although much is known about who pays the annual aggregate nursing home bill, relatively little is known about payment-source patterns of individuals during their lifetimes. In this article, lifetime payment-source patterns are analyzed for elderly nursing home users, particularly the extent to which they spend down assets to become eligible for Medicaid. During their lifetimes, 44% of persons who use nursing homes after 65 years of age start and end as private payers, 27% start and end as recipients of Medicaid benefits, and 14% spend down assets to become eligible for Medicaid benefits. Although still a relatively small proportion, the asset spend-down estimate based on lifetime data is 2.5 times previous national estimates based on data for single nursing home stays. The projected risk of spending down assets in nursing homes for all persons who turn 65 years of age in 1995, including users and nonusers of nursing homes, is slightly more than 6%. Equally or more important for policy is that 17% of all persons who turn 65 years of age can expect to end up using a nursing home and receiving Medicaid reimbursement. Of those, more than 3 in 5 will have entered the nursing home already eligible for Medicaid benefits.

Risky business: long-term care insurance underwriting.

Private insurance is one strategy for financing the large and growing cost of long-term care. Little is known, however, about the extent to which medical underwriting may limit the potential of private insurance to cover nursing home care, or whether the underwriting criteria used in this relatively new market successfully identify high-cost groups. This paper uses data from the National Mortality Followback Survey to address these two questions. We estimate that between 12% and 23% of the population would be rejected for private long-term care insurance because of their health if everyone applied at age 65. These figures rise to between 20% and 31% at age 75. Our simulation results suggest that long-term care insurance underwriting criteria identify individuals who vary substantially in the financial risk they pose to insurers. In most cases, whether a criterion identifies a high-cost group is sensitive to the policy individuals are assumed to buy.

The impact of being uninsured on utilization of basic health care services.

Recent proposals to increase access to health insurance suggest the need to know what the magnitude of responses would be if the one in five nonelderly persons uninsured for all or part of the year were to become insured. This paper finds that an additional commitment of resources to hospital and ambulatory care on the order of $26 billion (in 1989 dollars), or about 4% of total national health care spending, would be required if those now uninsured were to use these services on a par with the privately insured. The primary inputs to this result are new estimates of the impact of being uninsured which indicate a substantial potential response to insurance, particularly by adults.

Long term care arrangements for elderly persons with disabilities: private and public roles.

When private resources are defined broadly to include informal care as well as private expenditures, 73 percent of the elderly long term care population rely entirely on private resources for their care. The emphasis of current programs on institutional care directs public resources toward those with more serious disability and less family to care for them. Among those with four or five disabilities in ADLS, 35 percent of those without a spouse or children currently receive no public support, compared with nearly 80 percent of those with both a spouse and children. Thus, even if restricted to seriously disabled persons, a new program expanding public long term care financing would increase eligibility for public benefits disproportionately among those with greater informal care resources.

A lifetime perspective on proposals for financing nursing home care.

In this paper data from the National Mortality Followback Survey and the National Nursing Home Survey are used to estimate the lifetime cost of nursing home care. The expected discounted cost for persons turning 65 in 1990 is $27,600. However, variation around this average is high. The 9% of persons expected to use at least 5 years of nursing home care will account for 64% of aggregate cost for the cohort; the 68% using less than 3 months of care will account for only about 1% of cost. The percentage of costs covered under alternative financing strategies also varies widely. An entitlement covering the first 3 months of care subject to 30% coinsurance would cover 5% of aggregate cost; an entitlement with a 2-year deductible and the same coinsurance would cover 41% of cost.

The risk of nursing home use in later life.

Data from the 1982-1984 National Long-Term Care Survey were used in this paper to estimate the risk of nursing home use. The data revealed that 37% of a nationally representative sample of individuals dying between 1982 and 1984 used a nursing home sometime after turning 65. This proportion increased with longevity and was higher among females and whites and in the North Central and Western regions of the country. Because individuals now turning 65 have a longer life expectancy than the persons studied, they face an even higher remaining lifetime risk of nursing home use (43%). Assuming that past utilization patterns will continue, over half of the women and almost one-third of the men turning 65 in 1990 can be expected to use a nursing home sometime before they die.