Healthcare Operations and Black Swan Event for COVID-19 Pandemic: A Predictive Analytics.

COVID-19 pandemic has questioned the way healthcare operations take place globally as the healthcare professionals face an unprecedented task of controlling and treating the COVID-19 infected patients with a highly straining and draining facility due to the erratic admissions of infected patients. However, COVID-19 is considered as a white swan event. Yet, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare operations is highly uncertain and disruptive making it as a black swan event. Therefore, the study explores the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on healthcare operations and develops machine learning-based forecasting models using time series data to foresee the progression of COVID-19 and further using predictive analytics to better manage healthcare operations. The prediction error of the proposed model is found to be 0.039 for new cases and 0.006 for active COVID-19 cases with respect to mean absolute percentage error. The proposed simulated model further could generate predictive analytics and yielded future recovery rate, resource management ratios, and average cycle time of a patient tested COVID-19 positive. Further, the study will help healthcare professionals to devise better resilience and decision-making for managing uncertainty and disruption in healthcare operations.

Managing the retail operations in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Morocco.

Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and resulting lockdowns have contributed to major retail operational disturbances around the globe, forcing retail organizations to manage their operations effectively. The impact can be measured as a black swan event (BSE). Therefore, to understand its impact on retail operations and enhance operational performance, the study attempts to evaluate retail operations and develop a decision-making model for disruptive events in Morocco. The study develops a three-phase evaluation approach. The approach involves fuzzy logic (to measure the current performance of retail operations), graph theory (to develop an exit strategy for retail operations based on different scenarios), and ANN and random forest-based prediction model with K-cross validation (to predict customer retention for retail operations). This methodology is preferred to develop a unique decision-making model for BSE. From the analysis, the current retail performance index has been computed as "Average" level and the graph-theoretic approach highlighted the critical attributes of retail operations. Further, the study identified triggering attributes for customer retention using machine learning-based prediction models (MLBPM) and develops a contactless payment system for customers' safety and hygiene. The framework can be used on a periodic basis to help retail managers to improve their operational performance level for disruptive events.