Seasonal intensification and trends of rogue wave events on the US western seaboard.

Studies of changes in wave climate typically consider trends in sea state statistics, such as the significant wave height. However, the temporal variability of individual rogue waves, which pose a hazard to users of the sea and coastal environment has not been investigated. We use time series of continuous surface elevation over 124-270 months (spanning 1994-2016), from 15 wave buoys along the US western seaboard, to investigate regional trends in significant wave height and individual rogue waves. We find high spatial variability in trends in significant wave height and rogue waves across the region. Rogue wave occurrence displays a mostly decreasing trend, but the relative height - or severity - of the waves is increasing. We also identify seasonal intensification in rogue waves with increased rogue wave occurrence, of higher severity, in the winter than in the summer. Therefore, the common practice of stating a single occurrence likelihood for an ocean basin is not valid. In addition, the buoy data show that the magnitude and significance of trends in significant wave height increases towards higher percentiles, supporting previous findings.

OCEAN CIRCULATION. Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises.

The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models.

Emergent features due to grid-cell biology: synchronisation in biophysical models.

Modelling studies of upper ocean phenomena, such as that of the spatial and temporal patchiness in plankton distributions, typically employ coupled biophysical models, with biology in each grid-cell represented by a plankton ecosystem model. It has not generally been considered what impact the choice of grid-cell ecosystem model, from the many developed in the literature, might have upon the results of such a study. We use the methods of synchronisation theory, which is concerned with ensembles of interacting oscillators, to address this question, considering the simplest possible case of a chain of identically represented interacting plankton grid-cells. It is shown that the ability of the system to exhibit stably homogeneous (fully synchronised) dynamics depends crucially upon the choice of biological model and number of grid-cells, with dynamics changing dramatically at a threshold strength of mixing between grid-cells. Consequently, for modelling studies of the ocean the resolution chosen, and therefore number of grid-cells used, could drastically alter the emergent features of the model. It is shown that chaotic ecosystem dynamics, in particular, should be used with care.

Eddy variability east of Madagascar.

A strong but variable western boundary current flows south along the east coast of Madagascar, and at the island's southern end it interacts with eddies propagating zonally from the east. These two routes of variability are compared using altimetric sea-surface-height data and dynamic height from a high-resolution numerical model. The effects on biological productivity are also discussed.

Rapid climate change: scientific challenges and the new NERC programme.

In this paper the scientific challenges of observing, modelling, understanding and predicting rapid changes in climate are discussed, with a specific focus on the role of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The palaeo and present-day observational and modelling studies being carried out to meet these challenges, under the aegis of a new NERC Rapid Climate Change thematic programme (RAPID), are outlined. In particular, the paper describes the work being done to monitor changes in the meridional overturning circulation of the North Atlantic. The paper concludes with some speculative comments about potential mechanisms for rapid changes.