Statistical modelling of riverine nutrient sources and retention in the Lake Peipsi drainage basin.

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive calls for methodologies and tools to quantify nutrient losses from diffuse sources at a river basin district scale. Here, we examine the possibility of using a statistical model for source apportionment and retention of nutrients in a large transboundary drainage basin (44,000 km2). The model approach uses non-linear regression for simultaneous estimation of e.g. source strength, i.e. export coefficients to surface waters, for the different specified land-use or soil categories and retention coefficients for pollutants in a drainage basin. The model was tested on data from 26 water quality stations with corresponding sub-basin data, i.e., land cover, point sources and atmospheric deposition, from the Estonian part of the Lake Peipsi drainage basin. The model showed that it was statistically possible to derive reliable export coefficients (i.e. unit-area loads) for nitrogen on agricultural land and forests. Moreover, it was shown with simple empirical functions that lake retention was approximately 30-35% for both nitrogen and phosphorus and that the riverine retention was low for both nitrogen and phosphorus (approx. 10%). Results show that the MESAW model is a simple and powerful tool for simultaneous estimation of sources and retention of nutrient loads in a river basin.

GIS-based quantification of future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe using qualitative regional development scenarios.

This study aims at the quantification of possible future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe under different economic development scenarios. This drainage basin is on the borders of Russia, Estonia and Latvia. The sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a collapse of agricultural economy, and consequently, a substantial decrease of diffuse and point-source nutrient emissions. For the future, uncertainties about economic development and the priorities that will be set for this region make it difficult to assess the consequences for river water quality and nutrient loads into the lake. We applied five integrated scenarios of future development of this transboundary region for the next twelve to fifteen years. Each scenario consists of a qualitative story line, which was translated into quantitative changes in the input variables for a geographical information system based nutrient transport model. This model calculates nutrient emissions, as well as transport and retention and the resulting nutrient loads into the lake. The model results show that the effects of the different development scenarios on nutrient loads are relatively limited over a time span of about 15 years. In general, a further reduction of nutrient loads is expected, except for a fast economic development scenario.

Changes in nutrient levels in some Eastern European rivers in response to large-scale changes in agriculture.

Since the late 1980s, the use of commercial fertilisers in most Eastern European countries has decreased at an unprecedented rate. We examined the impact of this dramatic reduction in agricultural inputs on concentrations of nutrients in four rivers in Eastern Europe: the Emajogi and Ohnejogi (Estonia), the Daugava (Latvia), and the Tisza (Hungary). Time series of nitrate (NO3-N) and phosphate (PO4-P) concentrations and data on runoff were selected to represent catchments with substantial areas of agricultural land and available time series of sufficient length and frequency. The study period was 1987-1998. We detected downward trends in nitrate-N and phosphate-P in only two of the four rivers. Our results imply that the response to the extensive decrease in agricultural intensity since the late 1980s has been slow and limited in many rivers. Corresponding results in the literature are inconclusive and comprise several examples of both decreasing and non-decreasing nutrient concentrations. Our findings, along with similar data from other studies, indicate that large cuts in nutrient inputs do not necessarily induce an immediate response, particularly in medium-sized and large catchment areas. Moreover, the difference we noted between nitrogen and phosphorus suggests that factors other than reduced fertiliser application influenced the inertia of the water quality response.