Geographical variation of Crohn's disease residual incidence in the Province of Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is clinically expressed as a chronic affection of the gastrointestinal tract currently known to have a multifactorial etiology involving a complex pathophysiological host response modulated by genetic susceptibilities, demographic determinants and environmental factors. With more than 20 cases per 100,000 person-years, the province of Quebec, Canada is among regions of the world with highest reported occurrence of CD in relation to other places where comparable estimates are available. This ecological study was designed to provide a medium-scale spatial exploration of CD incidence after accounting for the influence of known population and regional determinants. Health records of consulting patients in southern Quebec were compiled from 1995 to 2000 and used to estimate age and sex standardized rates per health area (n = 156). Various statistical models taking into account the regional effect of Jewish ethnicity, aboriginal ancestry, material deprivation, prescription for oral contraceptives, reportable enteric infection incidence, smoking as well as latitude and longitude locations were fitted. RESULTS: The final regression model presented a coefficient of determination of 22.8% and there was evidence of an eastern trend in the residual incidence (p = 0.018). Overall, the smoothed residual incidence presented a heterogeneous spatial pattern with evidence of patches (multiple health areas) of high, low and contrasting values. Health areas with most extreme incidence residuals where also distributed over the whole province including one area in the metropolitan area of Montreal and others in surrounding areas. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that known populational and regional factors derived through census information only explain a limited fraction of the geographical variation of CD incidence and lead to speculate that the effects of these factors may be incompletely captured (imperfect construction of proxy variables) or that other important factors remain unmeasured. In this view, markers of genetic profiles of homogeneous sub-populations, and other factors linked to agroenvironmental microbial exposure should be further investigated. Once accounting for known factors, it would also be worth comparing adjacent geographical areas demonstrating abrupt changes in residual incidence rates to further explore effect linked to regional factors from those resulting from various reporting systems.

Epidemiology of Crohn's disease in Québec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is an idiopathic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to determine the prevalence and incidence of CD in Québec and characterize the demographic and health-related factors associated with this disease. METHODS: We identified CD cases in the provincial administrative databases for the years 1993-2002. The CD prevalence and incidence rates were estimated respectively for the periods 1993-2002 and 1998-2000. We validated the identified cases using clinically confirmed IBD cases. Predictor variables of CD were analyzed using the Poisson regression model to explain the variation in CD incidence rates across Québec. RESULTS: In all, 21,172 patients fulfilled the CD case definition for the period. The age and sex standardized average prevalence rate for 1993-2002 was 189.7 cases / 100,000 population and the age and sex standardized incidence rate of CD for the 1998-2000 period was 20.2 cases / 100,000 person-years. The female/male cases ratio among incident cases was 0.74 for the 0-14-year-old group, 1.30 for the 15-64-year-old group, and 1.77 for the cases older than 65 years old. After adjustment, independent predictors of CD incidence were: incidence of 5 reportable enteric diseases, proportion of individuals of Jewish ethnicity, and proportion of immigrant people. CONCLUSIONS: The identified predictors of CD explained 20% of the regional variance in the incidence rate of CD in the Québec population. Other factors such as genetic susceptibility to CD or the effect of an environmental cause should be taken into consideration in the models to explain the residual variance.

Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. RESULTS: A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CONCLUSION: We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.