Temporal trends in lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and its complications between 2000 and 2022: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine how the lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and of complications after atrial fibrillation changed over time. DESIGN: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study. SETTING: Population of Denmark from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022. PARTICIPANTS: 3.5 million individuals (51.7% women and 48.3% men) who did not have atrial fibrillation at 45 years of age or older were followed up until incident atrial fibrillation, migration, death, or end of follow-up, whichever came first. All 362 721 individuals with incident atrial fibrillation (46.4% women and 53.6% men), but with no prevalent complication, were further followed up until incident heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation and lifetime risks of complications after atrial fibrillation over two prespecified periods (2000-10 v 2011-22). RESULTS: The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased from 24.2% in 2000-10 to 30.9% in 2011-22 (difference 6.7% (95% confidence interval 6.5% to 6.8%)). After atrial fibrillation, the most frequent complication was heart failure with a lifetime risk of 42.9% in 2000-10 and 42.1% in 2011-22 (-0.8% (-3.8% to 2.2%)). Individuals with atrial fibrillation lost 14.4 years with no heart failure. The lifetime risks of stroke and of myocardial infarction after atrial fibrillation decreased slightly between the two periods, from 22.4% to 19.9% for stroke (-2.5% (-4.2% to -0.7%)) and from 13.7% to 9.8% for myocardial infarction (-3.9% (-5.3% to -2.4%). No evidence was reported of a differential decrease between men and women. CONCLUSION: Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased over two decades of follow-up. In individuals with atrial fibrillation, about two in five developed heart failure and one in five had a stroke over their remaining lifetime after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, with no or only small improvement over time. Stroke risks and heart failure prevention strategies are needed for people with atrial fibrillation.

Efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulants according to kidney function among patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with severely reduced kidney function have been excluded from randomized controlled trials and data on the safety and efficacy of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) according to kidney function remain sparse. The aim was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the DOACs across subgroups of kidney function. METHODS: Using multiple Danish nationwide registers and laboratory databases, we included patients initiated on oral anticoagulants (OACs) with atrial fibrillation and available creatinine level and followed patients for 2 years to evaluate occurrence of stroke/thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding. RESULTS: Among 26 686 included patients, 3667 (13.7%) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 596 (2.2%) had an eGFR below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2. We found no evidence of differences regarding the risk of stroke/TE between the OACs (P-value interaction >0.05 for all). Apixaban was associated with a lower 2-year risk of major bleeding compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKA) [hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.93], and the risk difference was significantly larger among patients with reduced kidney function (P-value interaction 0.018). Rivaroxaban was associated with a higher risk of bleeding compared to apixaban (hazard ratio 1.78, 95%CI 1.32-2.39) among patients with eGFR 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found no differences regarding the risk of stroke/TE, but apixaban was associated with a 21% lower relative risk of major bleeding compared to VKA. This risk reduction was even greater when comparing apixaban to VKA among patients with eGFR 15-30 mL/min/1.73 m2, and when comparing apixaban to dabigatran and rivaroxaban among patients with eGFR 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2.

Switching from vitamin K antagonist to dabigatran in atrial fibrillation: differences according to dose.

AIMS: In atrial fibrillation (AF) patients 150 mg b.i.d. dabigatran is the standard dose, yet guidelines recommend 110 mg b.i.d. when bleeding risk is high. It is unknown to which extend these recommendations are followed in patients switching from vitamin K antagonist (VKA) to dabigatran. The aim of this study was to investigate if AF patients are switched from VKA to the appropriate dose of dabigatran. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using nationwide registries (22 August 2011 to 31 December 2012), we identified VKA-experienced AF patients with available creatinine values who switched to dabigatran. European guidelines criteria 2012 on dabigatran dosing were examined: age ≥80 years, HAS-BLED ≥3, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<50 mL/min/1.73 m2, or use of interacting drugs. We identified 1626 VKA-experienced AF patients who switched to dabigatran 110 mg (820 patients) or 150 mg (806 patients). Patients who switched to 110 mg compared with 150 mg were older [median age 82 years (Q1-Q3: 77-86) vs. 68 years (Q1-Q3: 64-74)], more often females (54% vs. 35%), had a higher comorbidity burden, higher proportion with CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (98% vs. 80%), and more with a HAS-BLED score ≥3 (46% vs. 28%). Patients switched to 110 mg had a higher absolute risk of mortality compared with patients switched to 150 mg. Overall, 26% were inappropriately dosed and 14% were switched to 110 mg although the higher dose was indicated. Furthermore, 39% of patients switched to 150 mg fulfilled one or more criteria for 110 mg, this mostly driven by high HAS-BLED scores (28.2% of patients on 150 mg). Female sex, age ≥80 years, eGFR < 50 mL/min/1.73 m2, drugs interacting with dabigatran, and prior bleeding were associated with switch to 110 mg. Patients inappropriately dosed had similar risk of mortality as patients appropriately dosed. CONCLUSION: Among VKA-experienced AF patients one in four were switched to a dabigatran dose contrary to guideline recommendations.

All-cause mortality, stroke, and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and valvular heart disease.

AIMS: To compare the risk of all-cause mortality, stroke, and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and valvular heart disease (VHD) treated with vitamin K antagonist (VKA) or factor Xa-inhibitors (FXa-I; rivaroxaban and apixaban). METHODS AND RESULTS: We cross-linked data from Danish nationwide registries identifying patients with AF and VHD (aortic stenosis/insufficiency, mitral insufficiency, bioprosthetic heart valves, mitral-, and aortic valve repair) initiating VKA or FXa-I between January 2014 and June 2017. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, stroke, and bleeding. Using cause-specific Cox regression, we reported the standardized absolute 2-year risk of the outcomes and absolute risk differences (ARD). We identified 1115 (41.7%), 620 (23.1%), and 942 (35.2%) patients initiating treatment with VKA, rivaroxaban, and apixaban, respectively. The standardized absolute risk (95% confidence interval) of all-cause mortality associated with VKA treatment was 34.1% (30.4-37.8%) with corresponding ARD for FXa-I of -2.7% (-6.7% to 1.4%). The standardized absolute risk of stroke for VKA was 3.8% (2.2-5.4%) with corresponding ARD for FXa-I of -0.1% (-2.0% to 1.8%). The standardized risk of bleeding for VKA was 10.4% (7.2-12.9%) with corresponding ARD for FXa-I of -2.0% (-5.1% to 1.1%). The risk of bleeding was significantly reduced in subgroup analyses of apixaban compared with VKA [ARD: -3.9% (-7.0% to -0.9%)] and rivaroxaban [ARD: -5.6% (-9.5% to -1.7%)]. CONCLUSION: In this nationwide cohort study, there were no significant differences in the risks of all-cause mortality, stroke, and bleeding in patients with AF and VHD treated with VKA compared with FXa-I.

Rivaroxaban Versus Apixaban for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: An Instrumental Variable Analysis of a Nationwide Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The comparative effectiveness of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) is uncertain, as they have not been compared directly in randomized trials. Previous observational comparisons of NOACs are likely to be biased by unmeasured confounders. We sought to compare the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban and apixaban for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), using practice variation in preference for NOAC as an instrumental variable. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients started on apixaban or rivaroxaban after newly diagnosed AF were identified using Danish nationwide registries. Patients were categorized according to facility preferences for type of NOAC, independent of actual treatment, measured as fraction of the prior 20 patients with AF initiated on rivaroxaban in the same facility. Facility preference for NOAC was used as an instrumental variable. The occurrence of stroke/thromboembolism, major bleeding, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality over 2 years of follow-up were investigated using adjusted Cox regressions. We analyzed 6264 patients with AF initiated on rivaroxaban or apixaban. NOAC preference was strongly related to actual choice of treatment but not associated with any other measured baseline characteristics. Patients treated in facilities that had preference for rivaroxaban had more major bleeding: compared with patients treated in facilities that used rivaroxaban in 0% to 20% of cases, the adjusted hazard ratio for bleeding was 1.06 when treated in a facility with 25% to 40% use; 1.41 with 45% to 60% use; 1.51 with 65% to 80% use; and 1.81 with 0% to 100% use (Ptrend=0.01). Higher facility preference for rivaroxaban was not significantly associated with increased risk of stroke/thromboembolism (Ptrend=0.06), myocardial infarction (Ptrend=0.65), or all-cause mortality (Ptrend=0.89). When we used the instrumental variable to model the causal relationship between choice of NOAC and major bleeding, relative risk with rivaroxaban was 1.89 (95% CI, 1.06-2.72) compared with apixaban. CONCLUSIONS: Using instrumental variable estimation in a cohort of patients with AF, rivaroxaban was associated with higher risk of major bleeding compared with apixaban. No significant associations to other outcomes were found in main analyses.

Novel Risk Modeling Approach of Atrial Fibrillation With Restricted Mean Survival Times: Application in the Framingham Heart Study Community-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction models for atrial fibrillation (AF) do not give information about when AF might develop. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) quantifies risk into the time domain. Our objective was to use RMST to re-express individualized AF risk predictions. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included AF-free participants from the Framingham Heart Study community-based cohorts. We predicted new-onset AF over 10-year follow-up according to baseline covariates: age, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, antihypertensive treatment, diabetes mellitus, prevalent heart failure, and prevalent myocardial infarction. First, we fitted a Cox regression model and estimated the 10-year predicted risk of AF. Second, we fitted an RMST model and estimated the predicted mean time free of AF and alive over a time horizon of 10 years. We included 7586 AF-free participants contributing to 11 088 examinations (mean age 61±11 years, 44% were men). During 10-year follow-up, 822 participants developed AF. The Cox and RMST models were in agreement regarding the direction, strength, and statistical significance of associations for all covariates. Low (<5%), intermediate (5%-15%), and high (>15%) 10-year predicted risk of AF corresponded to predicted mean time alive and free of AF of 9.9, 9.6, and 8.8 years, respectively. A 60-year-old woman with a body mass index of 25 kg/m2, no use of hypertension treatment and no history of heart failure had a predicted mean time alive and free of AF of 9.9 years, whereas a 70-year-old man with a body mass index of 30 kg/m2, use of hypertension treatment, and with prevalent heart failure had a predicted mean time alive and free of AF of 7.9 years. CONCLUSIONS: The RMST can be used to develop risk prediction models to express results in a time scale. RMST may offer a complementary risk communication tool for AF in clinical practice.

On the estimation of average treatment effects with right-censored time to event outcome and competing risks.

We are interested in the estimation of average treatment effects based on right-censored data of an observational study. We focus on causal inference of differences between t-year absolute event risks in a situation with competing risks. We derive doubly robust estimation equations and implement estimators for the nuisance parameters based on working regression models for the outcome, censoring, and treatment distribution conditional on auxiliary baseline covariates. We use the functional delta method to show that these estimators are regular asymptotically linear estimators and estimate their variances based on estimates of their influence functions. In empirical studies, we assess the robustness of the estimators and the coverage of confidence intervals. The methods are further illustrated using data from a Danish registry study.

Protein Biomarkers and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The FHS.

BACKGROUND: Identification of protein biomarkers associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) may improve the understanding of the pathophysiology, risk prediction, and development of new therapeutics for AF. We examined the associations between 85 protein biomarkers and incident AF. METHODS: We included participants ≥50 years of age from the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) Offspring and Third Generation cohorts, who had 85 fasting plasma proteins measured using Luminex xMAP platform. Hazard ratios (per 1 SD increment of rank-normalized biomarker [hazard ratio]) and 95% CIs for incident AF were calculated using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, height, weight, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, diabetes mellitus, valvular heart disease, prevalent myocardial infarction, and prevalent heart failure. We used the false discovery rate to account for multiple testing. RESULTS: The study sample comprised 3378 participants (54% women) with mean (SD) age of 61.5 (8.4) years. In total, 401 developed AF over a mean follow-up of 12.3±3.8 years. We observed lower hazard of incident AF associated with higher mean levels of IGF1 (insulin-like growth factor 1; hazard ratio per 1 SD increment in protein level, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.76-0.93]), and higher hazard of incident AF associated with higher mean levels of both IGFBP1 (insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 1; hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.1-1.39]) and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; hazard ratio, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.52-1.96]). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased levels of IGF1 and increased levels of IGFBP1 and NT-proBNP were associated with higher risk of incident AF.

Risk of gastrointestinal bleeding associated with oral anticoagulation and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in patients with atrial fibrillation: a nationwide study.

AIMS: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are displacing vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for stroke prophylaxis in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Concomitant use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) could increase gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) risks among these patients. The aim of this study was to examine the risk of GIB among Danish AF patients taking oral anticoagulants (OACs) and NSAIDs. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using nationwide administrative registries, we determined concomitant NSAID use among anticoagulant-naïve patients with AF initiating OACs between August 2011 and June 2017. We calculated short-term absolute risks differences and hazard ratios (HRs) for GIB based on multiple adjusted cause-specific Cox regressions with time-dependent NSAID treatment. Among 41 183 patients [median age 70 years (interquartile range 64-78); 55% men], 21% of patients on NOACs and 18% on VKA were co-prescribed NSAIDs. The differences in absolute risk [95% confidence interval (CI)] of GIB within 14 days of commencing concomitant NSAID therapy (vs. no concomitant NSAID therapy) were 0.10% (0.04-0.18%) for NOACs and 0.13% (0.03-0.24%) for VKA. NOACs overall were associated with less GIB than VKA [HR 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.85)]. Compared with OACs alone, concomitant NSAIDs doubled the GIB risk associated with NOACs overall [HR 2.01 (95% CI 1.40-2.61)] and with VKA [HR 1.95 (95% CI 1.21-2.69)]. CONCLUSION: Among this nationwide AF population taking OACs, concomitant NSAID therapy increased the short-term absolute risk of GIB. Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants alone were associated with lower GIB risks than VKA but concomitant NSAIDs abolished this advantage. The findings align with post hoc analyses from randomized studies. Physicians should exercise appropriate caution when prescribing NSAIDs for patients with AF taking NOACs or VKA.

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants vs. vitamin-K antagonists in patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) versus vitamin-K antagonists (VKA) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not receiving dialysis. METHODS: By using personal identification numbers, we cross-linked individual-level data from Danish administrative registries. We identified every citizen with a prior diagnosis of AF and CKD who initiated NOAC or VKA (2011-2017). An external analysis of 727 AF patients with CKD (no dialysis) was performed to demonstrate level of kidney function in a comparable population. Study outcomes included incidents of stroke/thromboembolisms (TEs), major bleedings, myocardial infarctions (MIs), and all-cause mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine associations between oral anticoagulant treatment and outcomes. RESULTS: Of 1560 patients included, 1008 (64.6%) initiated VKA and 552 (35.4%) initiated NOAC. In a comparable population we found that 95.3% of the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 59 mL/min. Patients treated with NOAC had a significantly decreased risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio (HR): 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26-0.84) compared to VKA. There was not found a significant association between type of anticoagulant and risk of stroke/TE (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.39-1.78), MI (HR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.18-1.11), or all-cause mortality (HR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.77-1.26). CONCLUSION: NOAC was associated with a lower risk of major bleeding in patients with AF and CKD compared to VKA. No difference was found in risk of stroke/TE, MI, and all-cause mortality.

Osteoporotic Fractures in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Conventional Versus Direct Anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients in long-term treatment with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) are at high risk of osteoporotic fractures compared with the background population. It has been speculated that the choice of oral anticoagulant (OAC) may affect the risk of osteoporotic fractures. OBJECTIVES: The risk of osteoporotic fractures was evaluated among patients with atrial fibrillation treated with VKA or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). METHODS: Patients were identified using the Danish national registries. Patients were included only if they had no prior use of osteoporosis medication and they had undergone 180 days of OAC treatment. Outcomes were hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, any fracture, initiation of osteoporosis medication, and a combined endpoint. RESULTS: Overall, 37,350 patients were included. The standardized absolute 2-year risk of any fracture was low among DOAC-treated patients (3.1%; 95% CI: 2.9% to 3.3%) and among VKA-treated patients (3.8%; 95% CI: 3.4% to 4.2%). DOAC was associated with a significantly lower relative risk of any fracture (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.74 to 0.97), major osteoporotic fractures (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.99), and initiating osteoporotic medication (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.95). A combined endpoint showed that patients treated with DOAC had a significantly lower relative risk of experiencing any fracture or initiating osteoporosis medication (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.93). CONCLUSIONS: In a nationwide population, the absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures was low among patients with atrial fibrillation on OAC, but DOAC was associated with a significantly lower risk of osteoporotic fractures compared with VKA.

Oral anticoagulation among atrial fibrillation patients with anaemia: an observational cohort study.

AIMS: To investigate the risk of stroke/thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding associated with anaemia among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Also, to assess the effects of oral anticoagulation (OAC) and time in therapeutic range (TTR) with vitamin K antagonists according to level of haemoglobin (Hb). METHODS AND RESULTS: Through administrative registry databases, we identified all Danish patients diagnosed with AF from 1997 to 2012. We included 18 734 AF patients with recent available data on Hb. Multiple Cox regression analyses were used to estimate hazard ratios and to compute standardized absolute 1-year risks of stroke/TE and major bleeding. Among included patients, 3796 (20%) had mild anaemia (Hb 6.83-7.45 mmol/L for women and Hb 6.83-8.03 mmol/L for men) and 2562 (14%) had moderate/severe anaemia (Hb <6.83 mmol/L). Moderate/severe anaemia was associated with increased risk of major bleeding and 9.1% lower median TTR compared with no anaemia. Use of OAC was associated with reduced risk of stroke/TE among patients without anaemia [standardized absolute 1-year difference -2.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.8 to -1.7%] or with mild anaemia (-2.3%, 95% CI -2.8 to -1.8%), but not with moderate/severe anaemia, (0.03%, -1.8 to +2.8%, interaction P = 0.01). Oral anticoagulation was associated with a 5.3% (95% CI 2.1-8.7%) increased standardized absolute risk of major bleeding among AF patients with moderate/severe anaemia. CONCLUSION: Anaemia was common in patients with AF and associated with major bleeding and lower TTR. Oral anticoagulation was associated with more major bleeding, but no reduction in risk of stroke/TE among AF patients with moderate/severe anaemia.

Combining Oral Anticoagulants With Platelet Inhibitors in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: The optimal treatment strategy when combining antiplatelets with oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial infarction (MI) or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The authors investigated the risk of bleeding, ischemic stroke, MI, and all-cause mortality associated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) compared with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in combination with aspirin, clopidogrel, or both in patients with AF following MI and/or PCI. METHODS: Danish nationwide registries were used to identify patients with AF who were admitted with a MI and/or underwent PCI, between August 2011 and June 2017, treated with OAC in combination with antiplatelet(s). Patients were followed for 12 months or until an outcome, study end, or death. Standardized absolute risks were estimated on the basis of outcome-specific Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Average treatment effects were obtained as standardized absolute risk differences (ARD) in risks at 3 and 12 months using the g-formula. RESULTS: Overall, 3,222 patients were included in the study population, of which 875 (27%) were treated with VKA+single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT), 595 (18%) were treated with DOAC+SAPT, 1,074 (33%) were treated with VKA+dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), and 678 (22%) were treated with DOAC+DAPT. At 3 months, there was a significant difference in the absolute risk of MI associated with DOAC+SAPT compared with VKA+SAPT (3-month ARD -1.53% (95% confidence interval: -3.08% to -0.11%), with no significant differences found regarding bleeding, ischemic stroke, and all-cause mortality. Compared with VKA+DAPT, DOAC+DAPT was associated with a significantly reduced risk of bleeding (3-month ARD -1.96%, 95% confidence interval: -3.46% to -0.88%), with no significant difference in the absolute risk of all-cause mortality, stroke, or MI. CONCLUSIONS: In a real-world population of AF patients with MI and/or after PCI, the authors found that DOAC in combination with DAPT was associated with a significantly decreased risk of bleeding and similar thromboembolic protection compared with VKA in combination with DAPT.

Outcomes Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Appropriate Anticoagulation Control.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients on a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) with time in therapeutic range (TTR) ≥70% are not recommended to switch to a direct oral anticoagulant according to guidelines. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess future TTR and risk of stroke/thromboembolism and major bleeding among AF patients on VKA with TTR ≥70%. METHODS: The authors used Danish nationwide registries to identify AF patients on VKA from 1997 to 2011 with available international normalized ratio values. Patients were included 6 months after VKA initiation, divided according to TTR, and followed for 12 months after inclusion. Cox proportional hazard models estimated hazard ratios (HRs). TTR was examined both as a baseline variable and as a time-dependent covariate in the Cox models. RESULTS: Of the 4,772 included AF patients still on VKA 6 months after initiation, 1,691 (35.4%) had a TTR ≥70%, and 3,081 (65.6%) had a TTR <70%. Among patients with prior TTR ≥70% still on treatment 12 months after inclusion, only 513 (55.7%) still had a TTR ≥70%. Compared with prior TTR ≥70%, prior TTR <70% was not associated with a higher risk of stroke/thromboembolism (HR: 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77 to 1.70) or major bleeding (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.49). When the authors estimated TTR time-dependently during follow-up, TTR <70% was associated with an increased risk of stroke/thromboembolism (HR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.82) and major bleeding (HR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.76). CONCLUSIONS: Among AF patients on VKA, almost one-half of patients with prior TTR ≥70% had TTR <70% during the following year. Prior TTR ≥70% per se had limited long-term prognostic value.

Safety and effectiveness of rivaroxaban and apixaban in patients with venous thromboembolism: a nationwide study.

Aims: To investigate the risk of all-cause mortality, recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE), and hospitalized bleeding in patients with VTE treated with either rivaroxaban or apixaban. Methods and results: Using Danish nationwide registries, patients with VTE treated with rivaroxaban or apixaban in the period from 1 January 2015 to 30 June 2017 were identified. Standardized absolute risks were estimated based on outcome-specific Cox regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. A total of 8187 patients were included in the study, of which 1504 (18%) were treated with apixaban [50% males, median age 70 years; interquartile range (IQR) 56-80] and 6683 (82%) were treated with rivaroxaban (55% males, median age 67 years; IQR 53-76). The 180 days risk of all-cause mortality was 5.08% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.08% to 6.08%)] in the apixaban group and 4.60% (95% CI 4.13% to 5.18%) in the rivaroxaban group [absolute risk difference: -0.48% (95% CI -1.49% to 0.72%)]. The 180 days risk of recurrent VTE was 2.16% (95% CI 1.49% to 2.88%) in the apixaban group and 2.22% (95% CI 1.89% to 2.52%) in the rivaroxaban group [absolute risk difference of 0.06% (95% CI -0.72% to 0.79%)]. The 180 days risk of hospitalized bleeding was 1.73% (95% CI 1.22% to 2.35%) for patients in the apixaban group and 1.89% (95% CI 1.56% to 2.20%) in the rivaroxaban group [absolute risk difference: 0.16% (95% CI -0.59% to 0.81%)]. Conclusion: In a nationwide cohort of 8187 patients with VTE treated with rivaroxaban or apixaban, there were no significant differences in the risks of all-cause mortality, recurrent VTE, or hospitalized bleeding.

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between risk factor burdens-categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated-and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: Community based cohort study. SETTING: Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three a third in individuals with at least one elevated risk factor.

Restarting oral anticoagulant therapy after major bleeding in atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an inherited risk of bleeding. Benefits and risks of OAC restarting after a major bleeding are still uncertain. We aimed to assess effectiveness and safety of restarting OAC in AF patients after a major bleeding event. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all studies reporting data about AF patients that sustained a major bleeding, reporting data on restarting or not restarting OAC therapy. RESULTS: A total of seven studies were included, involving 5685 patients. No significant difference was found in "any stroke" occurrence between OAC restarters and non-restarters (odds ratio [OR]: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.37-1.51), with a significant 46% relative risk reduction (RRR) (p < 0.00001) for "any thromboembolism" in OAC restarters, with consistent results when the index bleeding event was an intracranial or gastrointestinal bleeding. A significantly higher risk of recurrent major bleeding was seen (OR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.48-2.30), but no difference in risk for recurrence of index event. OAC restarters had a 10.8% absolute risk reduction for all-cause death (OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.24-0.60); p < 0.00001). Net clinical benefit (NCB) analysis demonstrated that restarting OAC therapy after a major bleeding was significantly associated with a clinical advantage (NCB: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.09-0.14; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Restarting OAC therapy after a major bleeding event in AF was associated with a positive clinical benefit when compared to non-restarting OAC, with a significant reduction in any thromboembolism and all-cause mortality.

Genetic Predisposition, Clinical Risk Factor Burden, and Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The long-term probability of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) considering genetic predisposition and clinical risk factor burden is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of AF in individuals from the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Polygenic risk for AF was derived using a score of ≈1000 AF-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Clinical risk factor burden was calculated for each individual using a validated risk score for incident AF comprised of height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking status, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, and history of heart failure. We estimated the lifetime risk of AF within tertiles of polygenic and clinical risk. RESULTS: Among 4606 participants without AF at 55 years of age, 580 developed incident AF (median follow-up, 9.4 years; 25th-75th percentile, 4.4-14.3 years). The lifetime risk of AF >55 years of age was 37.1% and was substantially influenced by both polygenic and clinical risk factor burden. Among individuals free of AF at 55 years of age, those in low-polygenic and clinical risk tertiles had a lifetime risk of AF of 22.3% (95% confidence interval, 15.4-9.1), whereas those in high-risk tertiles had a risk of 48.2% (95% confidence interval, 41.3-55.1). A lower clinical risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset after adjusting for genetic predisposition (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In our community-based cohort, the lifetime risk of AF was 37%. Estimation of polygenic AF risk is feasible and together with clinical risk factor burden explains a substantial gradient in long-term AF risk.

Resumption of oral anticoagulation following traumatic injury and risk of stroke and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation: a nationwide cohort study.

Aims: We examined the risks of all-cause mortality, stroke, major bleeding, and recurrent traumatic injury associated with resumption of vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) and non-VKAs oral anticoagulants (NOACs) following traumatic injury in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Methods and results: This was a Danish nationwide registry-based study (2005-16), including 4541 oral anticoagulant (OAC)-treated AF patients experiencing traumatic injury (defined as traumatic brain injury, hip fracture, or traumatic torso or abdominal injury). Within 90 days following discharge from traumatic injury, 60.6% resumed VKA (median age = 80, CHA2DS2-VASc = 4, HAS-BLED = 2), 16.7% resumed NOAC (median age = 81, CHA2DS2-VASc = 4, HAS-BLED = 2), and 22.7% did not resume OAC treatment (median age = 81, CHA2DS2-VASc = 4, HAS-BLED = 3). Switch from VKA to NOAC occurred among 9.5%. Since 2009, the trend in OAC resumption increased (P-value <0.0001), in particular with NOACs (P-value <0.0001). Follow-up started 90 days after discharge, and time-varying multiple Cox regression analyses were used for comparisons. Compared with non-resumption, VKA and NOAC resumption were associated with lower hazard [95% confidence interval (CI)] of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48 (0.42-0.53) and HR 0.55 (0.47-0.66), respectively] and ischaemic stroke [HR 0.56 (0.43-0.72) and HR 0.54 (0.35-0.82), respectively], increased major bleeding hazard [HR 1.30 (1.03-1.64) and HR 1.15 (0.81-1.63), respectively], and similar hazard of recurrent traumatic injury [HR 0.93 (0.73-1.18) and HR 0.87 (0.60-1.27), respectively]. Conclusion: AF patients resuming VKA and NOAC treatment following traumatic injury have lower hazard of all-cause mortality and ischaemic stroke, increased hazard of major bleeding but without additional hazards of recurrent traumatic injury. Withholding OAC following a traumatic injury in AF patients may not be warranted.

Use of oral anticoagulants in combination with antiplatelet(s) in atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate temporal trends in the use of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in combination with aspirin and/or clopidogrel in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) following acute myocardial infarction (MI) and/or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: Using Danish nationwide registries, all patients with AF who survived 30 days after discharge from MI and/or PCI between 22 August 2011 and 30 September 2016 were identified. RESULTS: A total of 2946 patients were included in the study population, of whom 1967 (66.8%) patients were treated with VKA in combination with antiplatelet(s) (VKA+aspirin n=477, VKA+clopidogrel n=439, VKA+aspirin+clopidogrel n=1051) and 979 (33.2%) patients were treated with NOAC in combination with antiplatelet(s) (NOAC+aspirin n=252, NOAC+clopidogrel n=218, NOAC+aspirin+clopidogrel n=509). The overall study population had a median age of 76 years [IQR: 69-82] and consisted of 1995 (67.7%) men. Patients with MI as inclusion event accounted for 1613 patients (54.8%). Patients with high CHA2DS2-VASc score(congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (2 points), diabetes mellitus, history of stroke/transient ischemic attack/systemic thromboembolism (2 points), vascular disease, age 65-75 years, and female sex) accounted for 132 2814 (95.5%) of patients, and patients with high HAS-BLED score (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, history of stroke, history of bleeding, age >65 years, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug usages, or alcohol abuse, leaving out labile international normalized ratio (not available), and use of antiplatelets (exposure variable)) accounted for 934 (31.7%) of patients. There was an increase from 10% in 2011 to 52% in 2016 in the use of NOACs in combination with antiplatelet(s). CONCLUSION: From 2011 to 2016, the use of NOAC in combination with antiplatelet(s) increased in patients with AF following MI/PCI and exceeded the use of VKA in combination with antiplatelet(s) by 2016.