Time-effectiveness and convenience of transvaginal ultrasound probe disinfection using ultraviolet vs chlorine dioxide multistep wipe system: prospective survey study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the efficiency, ease of use and user satisfaction of two methods of transvaginal ultrasound probe high-level disinfection: ultraviolet-C radiation (UV-C) and a chlorine dioxide multistep wipe system. METHODS: This was a prospective survey study. UV-C units were introduced into a busy early pregnancy assessment service and compared with a multiwipe system for disinfection. Before seeing each patient, healthcare professionals (HCPs) measured with a stopwatch the time taken to complete a cycle of disinfection using either UV-C or chlorine dioxide multistep wipes and responded to a quick-response (QR) code-linked survey. Additional essential tasks that could be completed before seeing the next patient during probe disinfection were also documented. Using another QR code-linked survey, data on ease of use, satisfaction with the system used and preferred system were collected. The ease of use and satisfaction with the system were rated on a 0 to 10 Likert scale (0 poor, 10 excellent). A free-text section for comments was then completed. RESULTS: Disinfection using UV-C (n = 331) was 60% faster than the chlorine dioxide multiwipe system (n = 332) (101 vs 250 s; P < 0.0001). A greater number of tasks were completed during probe disinfection when using UV-C, saving a further 74 s per patient (P < 0.0001). The HCPs using UV-C (n = 71) reported greater ease of use (median Likert score, 10 vs 3; P < 0.0001) and satisfaction (median Likert score, 10 vs 2; P < 0.0001) compared with those using the multiwipe system (n = 43). HCPs reported that the chlorine dioxide system was time-consuming and environmentally unfriendly, while the UV-C system was efficient and easy to use. Overall, 98% of the HCPs preferred using the UV-C system. CONCLUSIONS: UV-C technology is more time-efficient and allows more essential tasks to be completed during disinfection. For a 4-h ultrasound list of 15 patients, the use of UV-C would save 55 min 45 s. HCPs found UV-C preferable and easier to use. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ultrasound characteristics, serum biochemistry and outcome of ectopic pregnancies presenting during COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To describe and compare the characteristics of ectopic pregnancies (EPs) in the year prior to vs during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of women diagnosed with an EP on transvaginal sonography conducted at a center in London, UK, providing early-pregnancy assessment, between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020. Women were identified via the Astraia ultrasound reporting system using coded and non-coded outcomes of EP or pregnancy outside the uterine cavity. Data related to predefined outcomes were collected using Astraia and Cerner electronic reporting systems. Main outcome measures included clinical, ultrasound and biochemical features of EP, in addition to reported complications and management. RESULTS: There were 22 683 consultations over the 2-year period. Following consultation, a similar number and proportion of EPs were diagnosed in 2019 (141/12 657 (1%)) and 2020 (134/10 026 (1%)). Both cohorts were comparable in age, ethnicity, weight and method of conception. Gestational age at the first transvaginal sonography scan and at diagnosis were similar, and no difference in location, size or morphology of EP was found between the two cohorts. Serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels at the time of EP diagnosis were higher in 2020 than in 2019 (1005 IU/L vs 665 IU/L; P = 0.03). The proportions of women according to type of final EP management were similar, but the rate of failed first-line management was higher during vs before the pandemic (16% vs 6%; P = 0.01). The rates of blood detected in the pelvis (hemoperitoneum) on ultrasound (23% vs 26%; P = 0.58) and of ruptured EP confirmed surgically (9% vs 3%; P = 0.07) were similar in 2019 vs 2020. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was observed in the location, size, morphology or gestational age at the first ultrasound examination or at diagnosis of EP between women diagnosed before vs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Complication rates and final management strategy were also unchanged. However, hCG levels and the failure rate of first-line conservative management measures were higher during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that women continued to access appropriate care for EP during the COVID-19 pandemic, with no evidence of diagnostic delay or an increase in adverse outcome in our population. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

External validation of models to predict the outcome of pregnancies of unknown location: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To validate externally five approaches to predict ectopic pregnancy (EP) in pregnancies of unknown location (PUL): the M6P and M6NP risk models, the two-step triage strategy (2ST, which incorporates M6P), the M4 risk model, and beta human chorionic gonadotropin ratio cut-offs (BhCG-RC). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study. SETTING: Eight UK early pregnancy assessment units. POPULATION: Women presenting with a PUL and BhCG >25 IU/l. METHODS: Women were managed using the 2ST protocol: PUL were classified as low risk of EP if presenting progesterone ≤2 nmol/l; the remaining cases returned 2 days later for triage based on M6P. EP risk ≥5% was used to classify PUL as high risk. Missing values were imputed, and predictions for the five approaches were calculated post hoc. We meta-analysed centre-specific results. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility (decision curve analysis) for predicting EP. RESULTS: Of 2899 eligible women, the primary analysis excluded 297 (10%) women who were lost to follow up. The area under the ROC curve for EP was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.91) for M6P, 0.88 (0.86-0.90) for 2ST, 0.86 (0.83-0.88) for M6NP and 0.82 (0.78-0.85) for M4. Sensitivities for EP were 96% (M6P), 94% (2ST), 92% (N6NP), 80% (M4) and 58% (BhCG-RC); false-positive rates were 35%, 33%, 39%, 24% and 13%. M6P and 2ST had the best clinical utility and good overall calibration, with modest variability between centres. CONCLUSIONS: 2ST and M6P performed best for prediction and triage in PUL. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: The M6 model, as part of a two-step triage strategy, is the best approach to characterise and triage PULs.

Triaging women with pregnancy of unknown location using two-step protocol including M6 model: clinical implementation study.

OBJECTIVE: The M6 risk-prediction model was published as part of a two-step protocol using an initial progesterone level of ≤ 2 nmol/L to identify probable failing pregnancies (Step 1) followed by the M6 model (Step 2). The M6 model has been shown to have good triage performance for stratifying women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) as being at low or high risk of harboring an ectopic pregnancy (EP). This study validated the triage performance of the two-step protocol in clinical practice by evaluating the number of protocol-related adverse events and how effectively patients were triaged. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter interventional study of 3272 women with a PUL, carried out between January 2015 and January 2017 in four district general hospitals and four university teaching hospitals in the UK. The final pregnancy outcome was defined as: a failed PUL (FPUL), an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or an EP (including persistent PUL (PPUL)). FPUL and IUP were grouped as low-risk and EP/PPUL as high-risk PUL. Serum progesterone and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels were measured at presentation in all patients. If the initial progesterone level was ≤ 2 nmol/L, patients were discharged and were asked to have a follow-up urine pregnancy test in 2 weeks to confirm a negative result. If the progesterone level was > 2 nmol/L or a measurement had not been taken, hCG level was measured again at 48 h and results were entered into the M6 model. Patients were managed according to the outcome predicted by the protocol. Those classified as 'low risk, probable FPUL' were advised to perform a urine pregnancy test in 2 weeks and those classified as 'low risk, probable IUP' were invited for a scan a week later. When a woman with a PUL was classified as high risk (i.e. risk of EP ≥ 5%) she was reviewed clinically within 48 h. One center used a progesterone cut-off of ≤ 10 nmol/L and its data were analyzed separately. If the recommended management protocol was not adhered to, this was recorded as a protocol deviation and classified as: unscheduled visit for clinician reason, unscheduled visit for patient reason or incorrect timing of blood test or ultrasound scan. The classifications outlined in the UK Good Clinical Practice (GCP) guidelines were used to evaluate the incidence of adverse events. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Of the 3272 women with a PUL, 2625 were included in the final analysis (317 met the exclusion criteria or were lost to follow-up, while 330 were evaluated using a progesterone cut-off of ≤ 10 nmol/L). Initial progesterone results were available for 2392 (91.1%) patients. In Step 1, 407 (15.5%) patients were classified as low risk (progesterone ≤ 2 nmol/L), of whom seven (1.7%) were ultimately diagnosed with an EP. In 279 of the remaining 2218 women with a PUL, the M6 model was not applied owing to protocol deviation or because the outcome was already known (usually on the basis of an ultrasound scan) before a second hCG reading was taken; of these patients, 30 were diagnosed with an EP. In Step 2, 1038 women with a PUL were classified as low risk, of whom eight (0.8%) had a final outcome of EP. Of 901 women classified as high risk at Step 2, 275 (30.5%) had an EP. Therefore, 275/320 (85.9%) EPs were correctly classified as high risk. Overall, 1445/2625 PUL (55.0%) were classified as low risk, of which 15 (1.0%) were EP. None of these cases resulted in a ruptured EP or significant clinical harm. Sixty-two women participating in the study had an adverse event, but no woman had a serious adverse event as defined in the UK GCP guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that the two-step protocol incorporating the M6 model effectively triaged the majority of women with a PUL as being at low risk of an EP, minimizing the follow-up required for these patients after just two visits. There were few misclassified EPs and none of these women came to significant clinical harm or suffered a serious adverse clinical event. The two-step protocol incorporating the M6 model is an effective and clinically safe way of rationalizing the management of women with a PUL. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

First-trimester intrauterine hematoma and pregnancy complications.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether sonographic diagnosis of intrauterine hematoma (IUH) in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with first-trimester miscarriage and antenatal, delivery and neonatal complications. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study of women with an intrauterine singleton pregnancy between 5 and 14 weeks' gestation recruited at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, London, UK, between March 2014 and March 2016. Participants underwent serial ultrasound examinations in the first trimester, and the presence, location, size and persistence of any IUH was evaluated. First-trimester miscarriage was defined as pregnancy loss before 14 weeks' gestation. Clinical symptoms, including pelvic pain and vaginal bleeding, were recorded at each visit using validated symptom scores. Antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes were obtained from hospital records. Logistic regression analysis and the chi-square test were used to assess the association between the presence and features of IUH and the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcome. Odds ratios (OR) were first adjusted for maternal age (aOR) and then further adjusted for the presence of vaginal bleeding or pelvic pain in the first trimester. RESULTS: Of 1003 women recruited to the study, 946 were included in the final analysis and of these, 268 (28.3%) were diagnosed with an IUH in the first trimester. The presence of IUH was associated with the incidence of preterm birth (aOR, 1.94 (95% CI, 1.07-3.52)), but no other individual or overall antenatal, delivery or neonatal complications. No association was found between the presence of IUH in the first trimester and first-trimester miscarriage (aOR, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.44-1.50)). These findings were independent of the absolute size of the hematoma and the presence of vaginal bleeding or pelvic pain in the first trimester. When IUH was present in the first trimester, there was no association between its size, content or position in relation to the gestational sac and overall antenatal, delivery and neonatal complications. Diagnosis of a retroplacental IUH was associated with an increased risk of overall antenatal complications (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that there is no association between the presence of IUH in the first trimester and first-trimester miscarriage. However, an association with preterm birth, independently of the presence of symptoms of pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding, is evident. Women diagnosed with IUH in the first trimester should be counseled about their increased risk of preterm birth and possibly be offered increased surveillance during the course of their pregnancy. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Natural history of pregnancy-related enhanced myometrial vascularity following miscarriage.

OBJECTIVES: Our primary aim was to report the incidence of enhanced myometrial vascularity (EMV) in consecutive women attending our early pregnancy assessment unit, following first-trimester miscarriage. We aimed further to evaluate the clinical presentation and complications associated with expectant and surgical management of EMV in these women. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study conducted in a London teaching hospital between June 2015 and June 2018, including consecutive patients with an observation of EMV on transvaginal ultrasonography following first-trimester miscarriage. The diagnosis was made following the subjective identification of EMV using color Doppler ultrasonography and a peak systolic velocity (PSV) ≥ 20 cm/s within the collection of vessels. Women were followed up with repeat scans every 14 days. Management was expectant unless intervention was indicated because of excessive or prolonged bleeding, persistent presence of retained tissue in the endometrial cavity or patient choice. The final clinical outcome was recorded. Time to resolution of EMV was defined as the interval from detection of EMV until resolution. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 2627 first-trimester fetal losses in the department and, of these, 40 patients were diagnosed with EMV, hence the incidence of EMV following miscarriage was 1.52%. All cases were associated with ultrasound evidence of retained products of conception (RPOC) at presentation (mean dimensions, 22 × 20 × 20 mm). Thirty-one patients opted initially for expectant management, of which 18 had successful resolution without intervention, five were lost to follow-up and eight subsequently had surgical evacuation due to patient choice. No expectantly managed case required emergency intervention. Nine patients chose surgical evacuation as primary treatment. No significant correlation was seen between PSV within the EMV at presentation and blood loss at surgery. Median PSV was 47 (range, 20-148) cm/s. The estimated blood loss in all cases managed surgically ranged from 20-300 mL. Presence of RPOC was confirmed in all specimens that were sent for analysis following surgery. For cases successfully managed expectantly, the mean time to resolution was 48 (range, 21-84) days. In the nine cases managed surgically from the beginning, the mean time to resolution of EMV was 10.6 (range, 3-29) days. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that EMV is an uncommon finding following miscarriage and is associated with the presence of RPOC. Expectant management was a safe option in our cohort, with minimal bleeding, although it was associated with protracted time to resolution. In patients who opted for surgery, the maximum blood loss was 300 mL and no patient required blood transfusion or embolization. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early-pregnancy events and subsequent antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess prospectively the association between pelvic pain, vaginal bleeding, and nausea and vomiting occurring in the first trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of later adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study of consecutive women with confirmed intrauterine singleton pregnancy between 5 and 14 weeks' gestation recruited at Queen Charlotte's & Chelsea Hospital, London, UK, from March 2014 to March 2016. Serial ultrasound scans were performed in the first trimester. Participants completed validated symptom scores for vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, and nausea and vomiting. The key symptom of interest was any pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding during the first trimester. Pregnancies were followed up until the final outcome was known. Antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes were obtained from hospital records. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between first-trimester symptoms and pregnancy complications by calculating adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with correction for maternal age. RESULTS: Of 1003 women recruited, 847 pregnancies were included in the final analysis following exclusion of cases due to first-trimester miscarriage (n = 99), termination of pregnancy (n = 20), loss to follow-up (n = 32) or withdrawal from the study (n = 5). Adverse antenatal complications were observed in 166/645 (26%) women with pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester (aOR = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.17-2.76) and in 30/181 (17%) women with no symptoms. Neonatal complications were observed in 66/634 (10%) women with and 11/176 (6%) without pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding (aOR = 1.73; 95% CI, 0.89-3.36). Delivery complications were observed in 402/615 (65%) women with and 110/174 (63%) without pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding during the first trimester (aOR = 1.16; 95% CI, 0.81-1.65). For 18 of 20 individual antenatal complications evaluated, incidence was higher among women with pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding, despite the overall incidences being low. Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy showed little association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that there is an increased incidence of antenatal complications in women experiencing pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester. This should be considered when advising women attending early-pregnancy units. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can risk factors, clinical history and symptoms be used to predict risk of ectopic pregnancy in women attending an early pregnancy assessment unit?

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether risk factors and symptoms may be used to predict the likelihood of ectopic pregnancy (EP) in women attending early pregnancy assessment units in the UK. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of pregnant women under 12 weeks' gestation who were recruited from three London university hospitals between August 2012 and April 2013. One hospital continued recruitment between January and June 2015. A standardized information sheet incorporating patient demographics, medical history and symptoms was completed by patients and confirmed by examining clinicians. The outcome measure was final pregnancy location. RESULTS: There were 1320 eligible patients included in the analysis, with a total of 72 EPs (rate of 6%). Pelvic pain and diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h were independent symptoms that increased the risk of EP, with relative risks of 2.4 (95% CI, 1.4-4.0; P = 0.002) and 2.2 (95% CI, 1.08-4.5; P = 0.03), respectively. The only other independent marker of risk of EP was duration of vaginal bleeding; the risk of EP increased by 20% (95% CI, 14%-27%) for every 1-day increment in duration (P < 0.001). A logistic regression model incorporating these factors demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79). The prevalence of EP was low when there was no pelvic pain, no diarrhea and the duration of bleeding was ≤ 3 days, with an EP rate of 2% (6/391). In the presence of a single risk factor, the EP rate increased to 5% (29/631) when only pelvic pain was present, 8% (1/12) when only diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h was reported and 9% (9/103) when there was only vaginal bleeding with a duration > 3 days. Women with pelvic pain and vaginal bleeding of any severity for > 3 days had a high EP rate of 16% (23/146). In the nine women who also reported diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h, two had EP. CONCLUSIONS: Only the presence of pelvic pain, diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h and duration of bleeding were symptoms that significantly increased the risk for EP in women attending early pregnancy assessment units. Risk factors and symptoms alone could not be used to predict reliably an EP. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating the risk of ovarian cancer before surgery using the ADNEX model: a multicentre external validation study.

BACKGROUND: The International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) group have developed the ADNEX (The Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa) model to predict the risk that an ovarian mass is benign, borderline, stage I, stages II-IV or metastatic. We aimed to externally validate the ADNEX model in the hands of examiners with varied training and experience. METHODS: This was a multicentre cross-sectional cohort study for diagnostic accuracy. Patients were recruited from three cancer centres in Europe. Patients who underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and had a histological diagnosis of surgically removed tissue were included. The diagnostic performance of the ADNEX model with and without the use of CA125 as a predictor was calculated. RESULTS: Data from 610 women were analysed. The overall prevalence of malignancy was 30%. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) for the ADNEX diagnostic performance to differentiate between benign and malignant masses was 0.937 (95% CI: 0.915-0.954) when CA125 was included, and 0.925 (95% CI: 0.902-0.943) when CA125 was excluded. The calibration plots suggest good correspondence between the total predicted risk of malignancy and the observed proportion of malignancies. The model showed good discrimination between the different subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the ADNEX model retains its performance on external validation in the hands of ultrasound examiners with varied training and experience.

The clinical performance of the M4 decision support model to triage women with a pregnancy of unknown location as at low or high risk of complications.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the adverse outcomes associated with using the M4 model in everyday clinical practice for women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL)? SUMMARY ANSWER: There were 17/835 (2.0%) adverse events and no serious adverse events associated with the performance of the M4 model in clinical practice. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The M4 model has previously been shown to stratify women classified as a PUL as at low or high risk of complications with a good level of test performance. The triage performance of the M4 model is better than single measurements of serum progesterone or the hCG ratio (serum hCG at 48 h/hCG at presentation). STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective multi-centre cohort study of 1022 women with a PUL carried out between August 2012 and December 2013 across 2 university teaching hospitals and 1 district general hospital. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All women presenting with a PUL to the early pregnancy units of the three hospitals were recruited. The final outcome for PUL was either a failed PUL (FPUL), intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or ectopic pregnancy (EP) (including persistent PUL (PPUL)), with EP and PPUL considered high-risk PUL. Their hCG results at 0 and 48 h were entered into the M4 model algorithm. If the risk of EP was ≥5%, the PUL was predicted to be high-risk and the participant was asked to re-attend 48 h later for a repeat hCG and transvaginal ultrasound scan by a senior clinician. If the PUL was classified as 'low risk, likely failed PUL', the participant was asked to perform a urinary pregnancy test 2 weeks later. If the PUL was classified as 'low risk, likely intrauterine', the participant was scheduled for a repeat scan in 1 week. Deviations from the management protocol were recorded as either an 'unscheduled visit (participant reason)', 'unscheduled visit (clinician reason)' or 'differences in timing (blood test/ultrasound)'. Adverse events were assessed using definitions outlined in the UK Good Clinical Practice Guidelines' document. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 835 (82%) women classified as a PUL were managed according to the M4 model (9 met the exclusion criteria, 69 were lost to follow-up, 109 had no hCG result at 48 h). Of these, 443 (53%) had a final outcome of FPUL, 298 (36%) an IUP and 94 (11%) an EP. The M4 model predicted 70% (585/835) PUL as low risk, of which 568 (97%) were confirmed as FPUL or IUP. Of the 17 EP and PPUL misclassified as low risk, 5 had expectant management, 7 medical management with methotrexate and 5 surgical intervention.Nineteen PUL had an unscheduled visit (participant reason), 38 PUL had an unscheduled visit (clinician reason) and 68 PUL had deviations from protocol due to a difference in timing (blood test/ultrasound).Adverse events were reported in 26 PUL and 1 participant had a serious adverse event. A total of 17/26 (65%) adverse events were misclassifications of a high risk PUL as low risk by the M4 model, while 5/26 (19%) adverse events were related to incorrect clinical decisions. Four of the 26 adverse events (15%) were secondary to unscheduled admissions for pain/bleeding. The serious adverse event was due to an incorrect clinical decision. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: A limitation of the study was that 69/1022 (7%) of PUL were lost to follow-up. A 48 h hCG level was missing for 109/1022 (11%) participants. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The low number of adverse events (2.0%) suggests that expectant management of PUL using the M4 prediction model is safe. The model is an effective way of triaging women with a PUL as being at high- and low-risk of complications and rationalizing follow-up. The multi-centre design of the study is more likely to make the performance of the M4 model generalizable in other populations. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: None. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.

Managing pregnancy of unknown location based on initial serum progesterone and serial serum hCG levels: development and validation of a two-step triage protocol.

OBJECTIVES: A uniform rationalized management protocol for pregnancies of unknown location (PUL) is lacking. We developed a two-step triage protocol to select PUL at high risk of ectopic pregnancy (EP), based on serum progesterone level at presentation (step 1) and the serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) ratio, defined as the ratio of hCG at 48 h to hCG at presentation (step 2). METHODS: This was a cohort study of 2753 PUL (301 EP), involving a secondary analysis of prospectively and consecutively collected PUL data from two London-based university teaching hospitals. Using a chronological split we used 1449 PUL for development and 1304 for validation. We aimed to assign PUL as low risk with high confidence (high negative predictive value (NPV)) while classifying most EP as high risk (high sensitivity). The first triage step assigned PUL as low risk using a threshold of serum progesterone at presentation. The remaining PUL were triaged using a novel logistic regression risk model based on hCG ratio and initial serum progesterone (second step), defining low risk as an estimated EP risk of < 5%. RESULTS: On validation, initial serum progesterone ≤ 2 nmol/L (step 1) classified 16.1% PUL as low risk. Second-step classification with the risk model selected an additional 46.0% of all PUL as low risk. Overall, the two-step protocol classified 62.1% of PUL as low risk, with an NPV of 98.6% and a sensitivity of 92.0%. When the risk model was used in isolation (i.e. without the first step), 60.5% of PUL were classified as low risk with 99.1% NPV and 94.9% sensitivity. CONCLUSION: PUL can be classified efficiently into being either high or low risk for complications using a two-step protocol involving initial progesterone and hCG levels and the hCG ratio. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accuracy of ultrasonography performed by examiners with varied training and experience in predicting specific pathology of adnexal masses.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic performance of subjective assessment by Level II ultrasound examiners in predicting the specific histology of adnexal masses. METHODS: The women included in this prospective multicenter cross-sectional study were older than 16 years of age and had at least one adnexal mass. They underwent transvaginal sonography (TVS) performed by Level II examiners, all of whom were familiar with the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) group definitions of ultrasound features of ovarian masses. The final outcome was histology. Specific diagnoses were categorized into 16 groups. Agreement between subjective assessment and final histology was measured using unweighted kappa coefficients. Sensitivities and specificities were obtained for subjective assessment. RESULTS: Of the 1279 women who underwent TVS, 313 were included in the final analysis. Overall agreement (16 × 16 table) between subjective assessment and histology was moderate, with a Cohen's kappa coefficient of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.53-0.65). The specificity of subjective assessment ranged between 91% and 100% for all histological subgroups. Highest sensitivities were achieved in the diagnosis of simple cysts (100% (95% CI, 61-100%)), hydrosalpinges (100% (95% CI, 34-100%)), mature teratomas (88% (95% CI, 74-96%)), endometriomas (75% (95% CI, 61-85%)), ovarian fibromas (88% (95% CI, 47-100%)), tubo-ovarian abscesses (88% (95% CI, 47-100%)) and serous cystadenocarcinomas (82% (95% CI, 66-93%)). Serous cystadenomas were misdiagnosed most commonly (40.5%). The sensitivity of subjective assessment in diagnosing adnexal torsion was 54% (95% CI, 25-81%); the 17 confirmed and/or suspected cases of adnexal torsion were not included in the 313 cases examined and analyzed for diagnostic performance. CONCLUSION: Overall, subjective assessment by Level II examiners was good for the detection of simple cysts, endometriomas, mature teratomas, hydrosalpinges, fibroma, tubo-ovarian abscess and serous cystadenocarcinomas.

Triaging pregnancies of unknown location: the performance of protocols based on single serum progesterone or repeated serum hCG levels.

STUDY QUESTION: How does a protocol based on a single serum progesterone measurement perform as a triage tool in women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) in comparison to protocols based on serial hCG measurement? SUMMARY ANSWER: Triage based on the logistic regression model M4 (using initial hCG and hCG ratio (48 h/0 h)) classifies the majority of PUL into low and high risk groups, in contrast to a progesterone protocol based on a serum level threshold of 10 nmol/l. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Low progesterone has been shown to identify failing pregnancies and those at low risk of complications. A prediction model (M4) based on the initial hCG and the hCG ratio at 0 and 48 h can successfully classify PUL into low and high risk groups. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION: A multi-centre diagnostic accuracy study of 1271 women was performed retrospectively on data from women at St. George's Hospital (SGH, London, UK) between February 2005 and 2006, Queen Charlottes & Chelsea Hospital (QCCH, London, UK) between April 2009 and August 2012, and the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital (RPAH, Sydney, Australia) between February 2008 and October 2011. The end-points were the final observed outcome for each pregnancy as a failed PUL (low risk), intrauterine pregnancy (IUP, low risk), or ectopic pregnancy (EP, high risk), and any interventions or complications for EP during the follow-up period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING AND METHODS: Complete data were available for initial progesterone, 0/48 h hCG and final outcome in 431 of 534 women (81%) at SGH, 396/585 (68%) at QCCH and 96/152 (63%) at RPAH. Missing values were handled using multiple imputation. Three diagnostic approaches were used to classify PUL as high risk: a range of serum progesterone levels were evaluated (>10, 16 and 20 nmol/l) for the progesterone protocol, risk of EP given by the M4 model ≥5% for the M4-based protocol, and hCG ratio was between 0.87 and 1.66 for hCG cut-offs as previously published. Results were analysed using random intercept models or stratified analysis to account for variability between centres. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The progesterone protocol based on levels of >10 nmol/l classified 24% (95% confidence interval 20-28%) of failed PUL, 95% (92-97%) of IUP and 76% (67-83%) of EP as high risk. The M4 protocol classified 14% (11-17%) of failed PUL, 37% (31-43%) of IUP and 84% (76-90%) of EP as high risk. The hCG ratio cut-offs classified 10% (8-12%) of failed PUL, 15% (11-20%) of IUP and 63% (53-71%) of EP as high risk. Using complete cases only, 67% of EP treated with methotrexate (n = 48) and 89% surgically managed (n = 37) were correctly classified by the progesterone protocol, 96 and 81% by M4 protocol and 75 and 65% by hCG ratio cut offs, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Data were incomplete for 103 (19%), 189 (32%) and 56 (37%) patients at SGH, QCCH and RPAH, respectively; however, we are reassured by the minimal differences seen between the results of complete cases and those following imputation of missing values. The variation in the inclusion criteria between the three centres is also a potential limitation of this study; however, it reflects real clinical practice. Furthermore, the hCG ratio cut-offs were not originally developed to optimize triage. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The results show that serum progesterone is less efficient for triage than serial hCG measurements assessed using the M4 model, the striking difference being serum progesterone places nearly all IUP in the high-risk category. A two-step strategy combining single-visit and two-visit approaches should be investigated. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding was from Research Foundation-Flanders (FWO). There are no competing interests.

External validation of models and simple scoring systems to predict miscarriage in intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability.

STUDY QUESTION: Does a logistic regression model and scoring system to predict viability of an intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability (PUV) perform as well in an independent patient group as the original patient group? SUMMARY ANSWER: The model and scoring system showed good performance on external validation confirming their value for the prediction of miscarriage/viability in PUV patients up to 11-14 weeks of gestation. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Several individual ultrasound and demographic factors have been described as predictors for miscarriage. A logistic regression model and simple scoring system using basic clinical and ultrasound features, such as maternal age, bleeding score, mean gestational sac diameter (MSD) and presence or absence of yolk sac, have been developed to allow patient-specific prediction of viability of PUV beyond the first trimester. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Prospective observational external validation cohort study in two inner city early pregnancy assessment units over a period of 18 months. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All consecutive women with a PUV were recruited. Ultrasound (mean sac diameter and presence of yolk sac) and demographic variables (maternal age, bleeding score and gestational age) were noted. The outcome measure was first trimester (11-14 week) viability. Women with unknown first trimester outcome were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots were constructed. Test performance was compared with the original development data set. A new model and scoring system, which did not include gestational age, was built and evaluated. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 575 women who were recruited, first trimester outcome was known for 89.2% (n = 513). The model could only be validated in 400 patients, due to missing values in model variables and outcome. The model predicted viability with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.845 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.806-0.884] compared with 0.774 (95% CI, 0.701-0.848) in the original study. The AUC for the scoring system was 0.832 (95% CI, 0.792-0.872) compared with 0.771 (95% CI, 0.698-0.844) from the original study data set. The new model and the scoring system, excluding gestational age, could be evaluated on 503 patients and resulted in an AUC of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.765-0.841) for the model and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.733-0.812) for the scoring system. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Approximately 22% of patients could not be validated due to missing variables and for 11% of patients the first trimester outcome was unknown. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Both the model and the scoring system showed excellent performance on external validation confirming their generalizability and utility in prediction of viability beyond the first trimester in clinical practice. An advantage of the mathematical models original Mo and new Mn and scoring systems original SSo and new SSn is that they can provide women with an individualized probability of the viability of their pregnancy using only demographic information, symptoms and TVS findings. Furthermore, the risk of miscarriage can be given immediately following examination. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): T.B. is supported by the Imperial Healthcare NHS Trust NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. This research is supported by Research Council KUL GOA MaNet, iMinds 2012, Belgian Federal Science Policy Office IUAP P719. VVB is a postdoctoral fellow of the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO). There are no conflicts of interest.

Multicentre external validation of IOTA prediction models and RMI by operators with varied training.

BACKGROUND: Correct characterisation of ovarian tumours is critical to optimise patient care. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression model (LR2), ultrasound Simple Rules (SR), the Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI) and subjective assessment (SA) for preoperative characterisation of adnexal masses, when ultrasonography is performed by examiners with different background training and experience. METHODS: A 2-year prospective multicentre cross-sectional study. Thirty-five level II ultrasound examiners contributed in three UK hospitals. Transvaginal ultrasonography was performed using a standardised approach. The final outcome was the surgical findings and histological diagnosis. To characterise the adnexal masses, the six-variable prediction model (LR2) with a cutoff of 0.1, the RMI with cutoff of 200, ten SR (five rules for malignancy and five rules for benignity) and SA were applied. The area under the curves (AUCs) for performance of LR2 and RMI were calculated. Diagnostic performance measures for all models assessed were sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), and the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). RESULTS: Nine-hundred and sixty-two women with adnexal masses underwent transvaginal ultrasonography, whereas 255 had surgery. Prevalence of malignancy was 29% (49 primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancers, 18 borderline ovarian tumours, and 7 metastatic tumours). The AUCs for LR2 and RMI for all masses were 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-0.97) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83-0.94), respectively. In premenopausal women, LR2-RMI difference was 0.09 (95% CI: 0.03-0.15) compared with -0.02 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.04) in postmenopausal women. For all masses, the DORs for LR2, RMI, SR+SA (using SA when SR inapplicable), SR+MA (assuming malignancy when SR inapplicable), and SA were 62 (95% CI: 27-142), 43 (95% CI: 19-97), 109 (95% CI: 44-274), 66 (95% CI: 27-158), and 70 (95% CI: 30-163), respectively. CONCLUSION: Overall, the test performance of IOTA prediction models and rules as well as the RMI was maintained in examiners with varying levels of training and experience.