Choice of models for QTL mapping with multiple families and design of the training set for prediction of Fusarium resistance traits in maize.

KEY MESSAGE: QTL analysis for Fusarium resistance traits with multiple connected families detected more QTL than single-family analysis. Prediction accuracy was tightly associated with the kinship of the validation and training set. ABSTRACT: QTL mapping has recently shifted from analysis of single families to multiple, connected families and several biometric models have been suggested. Using a high-density consensus map with 2472 marker loci, we performed QTL mapping with five connected bi-parental families with 639 doubled-haploid (DH) lines in maize for ear rot resistance and analyzed traits DON, Gibberella ear rot severity (GER), and days to silking (DS). Five biometric models differing in the assumption about the number and effects of alleles at QTL were compared. Model 2 to 5 performing joint analyses across all families and using linkage and/or linkage disequilibrium (LD) information identified all and even further QTL than Model 1 (single-family analyses) and generally explained a higher proportion pG of the genotypic variance for all three traits. QTL for DON and GER were mostly family specific, but several QTL for DS occurred in multiple families. Many QTL displayed large additive effects and most alleles increasing resistance originated from a resistant parent. Interactions between detected QTL and genetic background (family) occurred rarely and were comparatively small. Detailed analysis of three fully connected families yielded higher pG values for Model 3 or 4 than for Model 2 and 5, irrespective of the size NTS of the training set (TS). In conclusion, Model 3 and 4 can be recommended for QTL-based prediction with larger families. Including a sufficiently large number of full sibs in the TS helped to increase QTL-based prediction accuracy (rVS) for various scenarios differing in the composition of the TS.

High-density genotyping: an overkill for QTL mapping? Lessons learned from a case study in maize and simulations.

High-density genotyping is extensively exploited in genome-wide association mapping studies and genomic selection in maize. By contrast, linkage mapping studies were until now mostly based on low-density genetic maps and theoretical results suggested this to be sufficient. This raises the question, if an increase in marker density would be an overkill for linkage mapping in biparental populations, or if important QTL mapping parameters would benefit from it. In this study, we addressed this question using experimental data and a simulation based on linkage maps with marker densities of 1, 2, and 5 cM. QTL mapping was performed for six diverse traits in a biparental population with 204 doubled haploid maize lines and in a simulation study with varying QTL effects and closely linked QTL for different population sizes. Our results showed that high-density maps neither improved the QTL detection power nor the predictive power for the proportion of explained genotypic variance. By contrast, the precision of QTL localization, the precision of effect estimates of detected QTL, especially for small and medium sized QTL, as well as the power to resolve closely linked QTL profited from an increase in marker density from 5 to 1 cM. In conclusion, the higher costs for high-density genotyping are compensated for by more precise estimates of parameters relevant for knowledge-based breeding, thus making an increase in marker density for linkage mapping attractive.

Genomic predictability of interconnected biparental maize populations.

Intense structuring of plant breeding populations challenges the design of the training set (TS) in genomic selection (GS). An important open question is how the TS should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small biparental families to predict progeny from individual crosses. Here, we used a set of five interconnected maize (Zea mays L.) populations of doubled-haploid (DH) lines derived from four parents to systematically investigate how the composition of the TS affects the prediction accuracy for lines from individual crosses. A total of 635 DH lines genotyped with 16,741 polymorphic SNPs were evaluated for five traits including Gibberella ear rot severity and three kernel yield component traits. The populations showed a genomic similarity pattern, which reflects the crossing scheme with a clear separation of full sibs, half sibs, and unrelated groups. Prediction accuracies within full-sib families of DH lines followed closely theoretical expectations, accounting for the influence of sample size and heritability of the trait. Prediction accuracies declined by 42% if full-sib DH lines were replaced by half-sib DH lines, but statistically significantly better results could be achieved if half-sib DH lines were available from both instead of only one parent of the validation population. Once both parents of the validation population were represented in the TS, including more crosses with a constant TS size did not increase accuracies. Unrelated crosses showing opposite linkage phases with the validation population resulted in negative or reduced prediction accuracies, if used alone or in combination with related families, respectively. We suggest identifying and excluding such crosses from the TS. Moreover, the observed variability among populations and traits suggests that these uncertainties must be taken into account in models optimizing the allocation of resources in GS.