Using System Dynamics Approach to Explore the Mode Shift between Automated Vehicles, Conventional Vehicles, and Public Transport in Melbourne, Australia.

With the increasing use of automated vehicles (AVs) in the coming decades, government authorities and private companies must leverage their potential disruption to benefit society. Few studies have considered the impact of AVs towards mode shift by considering a range of factors at the city level, especially in Australia. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a system dynamic (SD)-based model to explore the mode shift between conventional vehicles (CVs), AVs, and public transport (PT) by systematically considering a range of factors, such as road network, vehicle cost, public transport supply, and congestion level. By using Melbourne's Transport Network as a case study, the model simulates the mode shift among AVs, CVs, and PT modes in the transportation system over 50 years, starting from 2018, with the adoption of AVs beginning in 2025. Inputs such as current traffic, road capacity, public perception, and technological advancement of AVs are used to assess the effects of different policy options on the transport systems. The data source used is from the Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM), provided by the Department of Transport and Planning, Melbourne, Australia, data from the existing literature, and authors' assumptions. To our best knowledge, this is the first time using an SD model to investigate the impacts of AVs on mode shift in the Australian context. The findings suggest that AVs will gradually replace CVs as another primary mode of transportation. However, PT will still play a significant role in the transportation system, accounting for 50% of total trips by person after 2058. Cost is the most critical factor affecting AV adoption rates, followed by road network capacity and awareness programs. This study also identifies the need for future research to investigate the induced demand for travel due to the adoption of AVs and the application of equilibrium constraints to the traffic assignment model to increase model accuracy. These findings can be helpful for policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding AV adoption policies and strategies.

Modelling cybersecurity regulations for automated vehicles.

Technological advancements in Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs), particularly the integration of diverse stakeholder groups (communication service providers, road operators, automakers, repairers, CAV consumers, and the general public) and the pursuit of new economic opportunities, have resulted in the emergence of new technical, legal, and social challenges. The most pressing challenge is deterring criminal behaviour in both the physical and cyber realms through the adoption of CAV cybersecurity protocols and regulations. However, the literature lacks a systematic decision tool to analyze the impact of the potential cybersecurity regulations for dynamically interacting stakeholders, and to identify the leverage points to minimise the cyber-risks. To address this knowledge gap, this study uses systems theory to develop a dynamic modelling tool to analyze the indirect consequences of potential CAVs cybersecurity regulations in the medium to long term. It is hypothesized that CAVs Cybersecurity Regulatory Framework (CRF) is the property of the entire ITS stakeholders. The CRF is modelled using the System Dynamic based Stock-and-Flow-Model (SFM) technique. The SFM is founded on five critical pillars: the Cybersecurity Policy Stack, the Hacker's Capability, Logfiles, CAV Adopters, and intelligence-assisted traffic police. It is found that decision-makers should focus on three major leverage points: establishing a CRF grounded on automakers' innovation; sharing risks in eliminating negative externalities associated with underinvestment and knowledge asymmetries in cybersecurity; and capitalising on massive CAV-generated data in CAV operations. The formal integration of intelligence analysts and computer crime investigators to strengthen traffic police capabilities is pivotal. Recommendations for automakers include data-profiteering in CAV design, production, sales, marketing, safety enhancements and enabling consumer data transparency.Furthermore, CAVs-CRF necessitate a balanced approach to the trade-off between: i) data accessibility constraints on CAV automakers and ITS service providers; ii) regulator command and control thresholds; iii) automakers' business investment protection; and iv) consumers' data privacy guard.

Implementing Model Predictive Control and Steady-State Dynamics for Lane Detection for Automated Vehicles in a Variety of Occlusion in Clothoid-Form Roads.

Lane detection in driving situations is a critical module for advanced driver assistance systems (ADASs) and automated cars. Many advanced lane detection algorithms have been presented in recent years. However, most approaches rely on recognising the lane from a single or several images, which often results in poor performance when dealing with extreme scenarios such as intense shadow, severe mark degradation, severe vehicle occlusion, and so on. This paper proposes an integration of steady-state dynamic equations and Model Predictive Control-Preview Capability (MPC-PC) strategy to find key parameters of the lane detection algorithm for automated cars while driving on clothoid-form roads (structured and unstructured roads) to tackle issues such as the poor detection accuracy of lane identification and tracking in occlusion (e.g., rain) and different light conditions (e.g., night vs. daytime). First, the MPC preview capability plan is designed and applied in order to maintain the vehicle on the target lane. Second, as an input to the lane detection method, the key parameters such as yaw angle, sideslip, and steering angle are calculated using a steady-state dynamic and motion equations. The developed algorithm is tested with a primary (own dataset) and a secondary dataset (publicly available dataset) in a simulation environment. With our proposed approach, the mean detection accuracy varies from 98.7% to 99%, and the detection time ranges from 20 to 22 ms under various driving circumstances. Comparison of our proposed algorithm's performance with other existing approaches shows that the proposed algorithm has good comprehensive recognition performance in the different dataset, thus indicating desirable accuracy and adaptability. The suggested approach will help advance intelligent-vehicle lane identification and tracking and help to increase intelligent-vehicle driving safety.

A multinational empirical study of perceived cyber barriers to automated vehicles deployment.

The digital transformation of Automated Vehicles (AVs) has raised concerns in the cyber realm among prospective AV consumers. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on how cyber obstacles may impact the operation of AVs. To address this knowledge gap, this study examines the six critical cyber impediments (data privacy, AV connectivity, ITS infrastructure, lack of cybersecurity regulations, AV cybersecurity understanding, and AV cyber-insurance) that influence the deployment of AVs. The impact of gender, age, income level, and individual AV and cybersecurity knowledge on these obstacles are statistically assessed using a sample of 2061 adults from the United States, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia. The research revealed intriguing empirical findings on all cyber barriers in the form of a trichotomy: participants' education level, understanding of AVs, and cybersecurity knowledge. As education levels increase, the significance of a cyber barrier to AV deployment decreases; however, as AV comprehension and cybersecurity knowledge increase, the perception of a cyber barrier becomes significantly more important. In addition, the study demonstrates differences in perceptions of cyber barriers and AV deployments based on gender, age, income, and geographic location. This study's findings on cyber barriers and AV deployment have implications for academia and industry.

A conceptual system dynamics model for cybersecurity assessment of connected and autonomous vehicles.

Emerging Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) technology have a ubiquitous communication framework. It poses security challenges in the form of cyber-attacks, prompting rigorous cybersecurity measures. There is a lack of knowledge on the anticipated cause-effect relationships and mechanisms of CAVs cybersecurity and the possible system behaviour, especially the unintended consequences. Therefore, this study aims to develop a conceptual System Dynamics (SD) model to analyse cybersecurity in the complex, uncertain deployment of CAVs. Specifically, the SD model integrates six critical avenues and maps their respective parameters that either trigger or mitigate cyber-attacks in the operation of CAVs using a systematic theoretical approach. These six avenues are: i) CAVs communication framework, ii) secured physical access, iii) human factors, iv) CAVs penetration, v) regulatory laws and policy framework, and iv) trust-across the CAVs-industry and among the public. Based on the conceptual model, various system archetypes are analysed. "Fixes that Fail", in which the upsurge in hacker capability is the unintended natural result of technology maturity, requires continuous efforts to combat it. The primary mitigation steps are human behaviour analysis, knowledge of motivations and characteristics of CAVs cyber-attackers, CAVs users and Original Equipment Manufacturers education. "Shifting the burden", where policymakers counter the perceived cyber threats of hackers by updating legislation that also reduces CAVs adaptation by imitations, indicated the need for calculated regulatory and policy intervention. The "limits to success" triggered by CAVs penetration increase the defended hacks to establish regulatory laws, improve trust, and develop more human analysis. However, it may also open up caveats for cyber-crimes and alert that CAVs deployment to be alignment with the intended goals for enhancing cybersecurity. The proposed model can support decision-making and training and stimulate the roadmap towards an optimized, self-regulating, and resilient cyber-safe CAV system.

Cyber-attacks in the next-generation cars, mitigation techniques, anticipated readiness and future directions.

Modern-day Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) with more than 100 million code lines, running up-to a hundred Electronic Control Units (ECUs) will create and exchange digital information with other vehicles and intelligent transport networks. Consequently, ubiquitous internal and external communication (controls, commands, and data) within all CAV-related nodes is inevitably the gatekeeper for the smooth operation. Therefore, it is a primary vulnerable area for cyber-attacks that entails stringent and efficient measures in the form of "cybersecurity". There is a lack of systematic and comprehensive review of the literature on cyber-attacks on the CAVs, respective mitigation strategies, anticipated readiness, and research directions for the future. This study aims to analyse, synthesise, and interpret critical areas for the roll-out and progression of CAVs in combating cyber-attacks. Specifically, we described in a structured way a holistic view of potentially critical avenues, which lies at the heart of CAV cybersecurity research. We synthesise their scope with a particular focus on ensuring effective CAVs deployment and reducing the probability of cyber-attack failures. We present the CAVs communication framework in an integrated form, i.e., from In-Vehicle (IV) communication to Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2X) communication with a visual flowchart to provide a transparent picture of all the interfaces for potential cyber-attacks. The vulnerability of CAVs by proximity (or physical) access to cyber-attacks is outlined with future recommendations. There is a detailed description of why the orthodox cybersecurity approaches in Cyber-Physical System (CPS) are not adequate to counter cyber-attacks on the CAVs. Further, we synthesised a table with consolidated details of the cyber-attacks on the CAVs, the respective CAV communication system, its impact, and the corresponding mitigation strategies. It is believed that the literature discussed, and the findings reached in this paper are of great value to CAV researchers, technology developers, and decision-makers in shaping and developing a robust CAV-cybersecurity framework.