Predicting 30-day Mortality after Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: Validation of the Harborview Risk Score in a Single-Center Dutch Study Population.

BACKGROUND: The Harborview Risk Score (HRS) was recently proposed as scoring tool to predict 30-day mortality in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAAs). The HRS assigns 1 point for each of the following preoperative characteristics: age > 76 years, pH < 7.2, creatinine level > 2 mg/dL (> 176.8 µmol/L), and systolic blood pressure < 70 mm Hg, resulting in scores from 0 to 4. The 30-day mortality risk increases with every point. Primarily, we aimed to validate the HRS for the first time in a Dutch study population. A second objective was to identify other clinically relevant predictors for 30-day mortality after repair of rAAA. METHODS: Retrospective data from patients who underwent open repair or endovascular aortic repair for a rAAA between January 2009 and February 2022 were reviewed. Patients were grouped by HRS category (score 0-4). The 30-day mortality rate was calculated for each HRS category. Determinants for 30-day mortality were tested for significance and validated for HRS. RESULTS: In total, data from 135 patients were included. Open repair was performed in 95 patients and 40 patients underwent endovascular aortic repair. Univariate logistic regression identified pH < 7.2, systolic blood pressure < 70 mm Hg, female sex, performance status, and increase per HRS unit as significant determinants for 30-day mortality. After adjusting for sex and performance status in the multivariate analysis, the association between the HRS per-unit increase and 30-day mortality remained significant (odds ratio 2.532 (95% confidence interval: 1.437-4.461)). The 30-day mortality rate for HRS score 0 was 15.2%, while for HRS score 3 and 4 the mortality was 80% and 100% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Harborview Risk Score was validated in this single-center Dutch population. Results were concordant with data presented in earlier studies. Therefore, the HRS seems accurate and accessible as preoperative tool. For now, the HRS should guide as an insightful tool to indicate the chances of postoperative mortality during the preoperative conversations in the emergency room, rather than as a decision-making tool whether to operate or not. Our results suggest that female sex and performance status are also relevant predictors that should be assessed in other populations to improve preoperative scoring systems.

Nationwide Study to Predict Colonic Ischemia after Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair in The Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Colonic ischemia remains a severe complication after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and is associated with a high mortality. With open repair being one of the main risk factors of colonic ischemia, deciding between endovascular or open aneurysm repair should be based on tailor-made medicine. This study aims to identify high-risk patients of colonic ischemia, a risk that can be taken into account while deciding on AAA treatment strategy. METHODS: A nationwide population-based cohort study of 9,433 patients who underwent an AAA operation between 2014 and 2016 was conducted. Potential risk factors were determined by reviewing prior studies and univariate analysis. With logistic regression analysis, independent predictors of intestinal ischemia were established. These variables were used to form a prediction model. RESULTS: Intestinal ischemia occurred in 267 patients (2.8%). Occurrence of intestinal ischemia was seen significantly more in open repair versus endovascular aneurysm repair (7.6% vs. 0.9%; P < 0.001). This difference remained significant after stratification by urgency of the procedure, in both intact open (4.2% vs. 0.4%; P < 0.001) and ruptured open repair (15.0% vs. 6.2%); P < 0.001). Rupture of the AAA was the most important predictor of developing intestinal ischemia (odds ratio [OR], 5.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4-8.0), followed by having a suprarenal AAA (OR 3.4; CI 1.1-10.6). Associated procedural factors were open repair (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.9-4.2), blood loss >1L (OR 3.6; 95% CI 1.7-7.5), and prolonged operating time (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.4-2.8). Patient characteristics included having peripheral arterial disease (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.3-4.4), female gender (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4), renal insufficiency (OR 1.7; 1.3-2.2), and pulmonary history (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.2). Age <68 years proved to be a protective factor (OR 0.5; 95% CI 0.4-0.8). Associated mortality was higher in patients with intestinal ischemia versus patients without (50.6% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.001). Each predictor was given a score between 1 and 4. Patients with a score of ≥10 proved to be at high risk. A prediction model with an excellent AUC = 0.873 (95% CI 0.855-0.892) could be formed. CONCLUSIONS: One of the main risk factors is open repair. Several other risk factors can contribute to developing colonic ischemia after AAA repair. The proposed prediction model can be used to identify patients at high risk for developing colonic ischemia. With the current trend in AAA repair leaning toward open repair for better long-term results, our prediction model allows a better informed decision can be made in AAA treatment strategy.

Severe Infrarenal Atheroma Load in Open Aortic Aneurysm Repair Is Not a Risk Factor for Postoperative Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after open aortic repair is subject to multiple patient- and operation-related variables. Hostile neck morphology in open aneurysm repair is thought to contribute to this AKI risk postoperatively. The aim of this study was to evaluate if large neck atheroma is a possible risk factor in the postoperative development of AKI. METHODS: Retrospectively 137 patients were evaluated for neck atheroma and AKI incidence. Atheroma load measurements were performed by 2 different techniques. Results were compared, and secondly a univariate analysis was performed for multiple additional risk factors regarding AKI occurrence. RESULTS: Significant (>30%) neck atheroma was not associated with a higher risk for developing AKI (odds ratio [OR]: 1.81; 95% confidence intervals: 0.74-4.44). Overall incidence of AKI based upon Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria was 19.7%. In univariate analysis coronary artery disease and the presence of a renal artery stenosis were both significantly associated with AKI (OR: 2.38, 3.31, respectively) as well as the use of B-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (OR 3.05, 2.48, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Cross-clamping in case of significant neck atheroma during open aortic aneurysm repair is not associated with increased risk of AKI. Defining high-risk patients based on additional risk factors must be a part of preoperative patient selection.