The Comparison of Three Statistical Models for Syndromic Surveillance in Cattle Using Milk Production Data.

Two vector-borne infections have emerged and spread throughout the north-western part of Europe in the last decade: Bluetongue virus serotype-8 (BTV-8) and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV). The objective of the current study was to compare three statistical methods when applied in a syndromic surveillance context for the early detection of emerging diseases in cattle in the Netherlands. Since BTV-8 and SBV both have a negative effect on milk production in dairy cattle, routinely collected bulk milk recordings were used to compare the three statistical methods in their potential to detect drops in milk production during a period of seven years in which BTV-8 and SBV emerged. A Cusum algorithm, Bayesian disease mapping model, and spatiotemporal cluster analysis using the space-time scan statistic were performed and their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity was compared. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis performed best for early detection of SBV in cattle in the Netherlands with a relative sensitivity of 71% compared to clinical surveillance and 100% specificity in a year without major disease outbreaks. Sensitivity to detect BTV-8 was low for all methods. However, many alerts of reduced milk production were generated several weeks before the week in which first clinical suspicions were reported. It cannot be excluded that these alerts represent the actual first signs of BTV-8 infections in cattle in the Netherlands thus leading to an underestimation of the sensitivity of the syndromic surveillance methods relative to the clinical surveillance in place.

Deaths among Wild Birds during Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus Outbreak, the Netherlands.

During autumn-winter 2016-2017, highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) viruses caused mass die-offs among wild birds in the Netherlands. Among the ≈13,600 birds reported dead, most were tufted ducks (Aythya fuligula) and Eurasian wigeons (Anas penelope). Recurrence of avian influenza outbreaks might alter wild bird population dynamics.

Rate of introduction of a low pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in different poultry production sectors in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Targeted risk-based surveillance of poultry types (PT) with different risks of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infection may improve the sensitivity of surveillance. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the rate of introduction of LPAIv infections in different PT. METHODS: Data from the Dutch LPAIv surveillance programme (2007-2010) were analysed using a generalised linear mixed and spatial model. RESULTS: Outdoor-layer, turkey, duck-breeder and meat-duck, farms had a 11, 8, 24 and 13 times higher rate of introduction of LPAIv than indoor-layer farms, respectively. CONCLUSION: Differences in the rate of introduction of LPAIv could be used to (re)design a targeted risk-based surveillance programme.