Fin whale song characteristics and potential subpopulation identity in the New York Bight.

Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) song can follow a highly consistent pattern, and regional differences in song patterns can be a valuable indicator of subpopulation identity and distribution. In the Northwest Atlantic, endangered fin whales are currently managed as a single stock despite previous identification of different regional song patterns, which indicates potential subpopulation structuring and vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance if not managed accordingly. Here we document fin whale song in the New York Bight (NYB) from 2017 to 2020 using passive acoustic data to identify monthly and yearly trends in song patterns and to explore potential subpopulation structuring. The predominant song pattern observed was highly consistent with the pattern documented almost a decade prior in the NYB, with short inter-note intervals (INI) from fall-winter and long-INIs in the spring. However, in one song year the majority of songs were composed of long-INIs. This change in song pattern could be due to a shift in fin whale behavior or possibly multiple fin whale subpopulations using the NYB. Fin whales in the NYB may be particularly vulnerable to disturbance given the increasing anthropogenic pressures in this region, and further research into subpopulation structuring is needed to ensure adequate management of these endangered whales.

Extending the conservation impact of great ape research: Flagship species sites facilitate biodiversity assessments and land preservation.

To inform regional conservation planning, we assessed mammalian and avian biodiversity in the Djéké Triangle, which is an intact forest with long-term research and tourism focused on western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla). This critical region serves as a conservation conduit between the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park (NNNP) in the Republic of Congo and the Dzanga-Ndoki National Park in Central African Republic. Wildlife inventories were conducted to determine if biodiversity in the Djéké Triangle (initially part of a logging concession) was equivalent to the NNNP. Camera traps (CTs) were deployed to estimate species richness, relative abundance, naïve occupancy, and activity patterns of medium-to-large species in mixed species and monodominant Gilbertiodendron forests that comprise the majority of regional terra firma. Species inventories were collected from CTs positioned on a grid and at termite nests throughout the Djéké Triangle and compared to CTs placed in the Goualougo Triangle located within the NNNP. From 10,534 camera days at 65 locations, we identified 34 mammal and 16 bird species. Allaying concerns of wildlife depletion, metrics of species richness in the Djéké Triangle surpassed those of the Goualougo Triangle. Many species were observed to occur across habitats, while others showed habitat specificity, with termite mounds indicated as an important microhabitat feature. Our comparisons of animal activity budgets in different habitat types provide important reference information for other populations and contexts. In conclusion, this study provided empirical evidence of the high conservation value of this region that contributed to increasing the protected status of the Djéké Triangle.

Range-wide indicators of African great ape density distribution.

Species distributions are influenced by processes occurring at multiple spatial scales. It is therefore insufficient to model species distribution at a single geographic scale, as this does not provide the necessary understanding of determining factors. Instead, multiple approaches are needed, each differing in spatial extent, grain, and research objective. Here, we present the first attempt to model continent-wide great ape density distribution. We used site-level estimates of African great ape abundance to (1) identify socioeconomic and environmental factors that drive densities at the continental scale, and (2) predict range-wide great ape density. We collated great ape abundance estimates from 156 sites and defined 134 pseudo-absence sites to represent additional absence locations. The latter were based on locations of unsuitable environmental conditions for great apes, and on existing literature. We compiled seven socioeconomic and environmental covariate layers and fitted a generalized linear model to investigate their influence on great ape abundance. We used an Akaike-weighted average of full and subset models to predict the range-wide density distribution of African great apes for the year 2015. Great ape densities were lowest where there were high Human Footprint and Gross Domestic Product values; the highest predicted densities were in Central Africa, and the lowest in West Africa. Only 10.7% of the total predicted population was found in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Category I and II protected areas. For 16 out of 20 countries, our estimated abundances were largely in line with those from previous studies. For four countries, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and South Sudan, the estimated populations were excessively high. We propose further improvements to the model to overcome survey and predictor data limitations, which would enable a temporally dynamic approach for monitoring great apes across their range based on key indicators.

Changes in Grauer's gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) and other primate populations in the Kahuzi-Biega National Park and Oku Community Reserve, the heart of Grauer's gorilla global range.

Grauer's gorillas (Gorilla beringei graueri) have declined drastically across their range in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Survey data analysed in 2016 estimated a 77% decline in numbers between the mid- 1990s and 2016 and predicted that Kahuzi-Biega National Park (KBNP), and the contiguous Oku Community Reserve (OCR) held much of the global population. An estimate of 3800 Grauer's gorillas was made across its range at that time. Here, we publish the most extensive survey of Grauer's gorilla numbers to date, using nest counts from 230 line transects across KBNP and OCR to derive more accurate estimates of both gorilla and chimpanzee numbers. Gorilla numbers were estimated from line transects at 1,571 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 824-2,993) within KBNP and at 2,244 (95% CI: 1,471-3,422) in OCR. Eastern chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) numbers were estimated at 2,500 (95% CI: 1,804-3,462) in KBNP and 687 (95% CI: 472-999) in OCR. Estimates of total numbers for the survey area were 5,252 (95% CI: 3,687-7,481) Grauer's gorillas and 4,275 (95% CI: 3,322-5,502) eastern chimpanzees. Chimpanzee numbers were not significantly different from the estimates in the mid-1990s but the gorillas had significantly declined, mostly in KBNP. Modeled densities of these apes indicated that distances to mines, villages, or roads significantly explained part of the distribution of these apes, with higher densities also found in more rugged and remote sites. Other primates have all declined in this region, likely due to bushmeat hunting, especially the Endangered Ulindi River Red Colobus Piliocolobus lulindicus. These results confirm the negative impact of insecurity on Grauer's gorilla but indicate that the population declines may not be as great as previously feared. Using our revised gorilla density estimate we revise the original estimate of global numbers from 3,800 to 6,800 individuals.

Human footprint and protected areas shape elephant range across Africa.

Over the last two millennia, and at an accelerating pace, the African elephant (Loxodonta spp. Lin.) has been threatened by human activities across its range.1-7 We investigate the correlates of elephant home range sizes across diverse biomes. Annual and 16-day elliptical time density home ranges8 were calculated by using GPS tracking data collected from 229 African savannah and forest elephants (L. africana and L. cyclotis, respectively) between 1998 and 2013 at 19 sites representing bushveld, savannah, Sahel, and forest biomes. Our analysis considered the relationship between home range area and sex, species, vegetation productivity, tree cover, surface temperature, rainfall, water, slope, aggregate human influence, and protected area use. Irrespective of these environmental conditions, long-term annual ranges were overwhelmingly affected by human influence and protected area use. Only over shorter, 16-day periods did environmental factors, particularly water availability and vegetation productivity, become important in explaining space use. Our work highlights the degree to which the human footprint and existing protected areas now constrain the distribution of the world's largest terrestrial mammal.9,10 A habitat suitability model, created by evaluating every square kilometer of Africa, predicts that 18,169,219 km2 would be suitable as elephant habitat-62% of the continent. The current elephant distribution covers just 17% of this potential range of which 57.4% falls outside protected areas. To stem the continued extirpation and to secure the elephants' future, effective and expanded protected areas and improved capacity for coexistence across unprotected range are essential.

Outbreak of Peste des Petits Ruminants among Critically Endangered Mongolian Saiga and Other Wild Ungulates, Mongolia, 2016-2017.

The 2016-2017 introduction of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) into livestock in Mongolia was followed by mass mortality of the critically endangered Mongolian saiga antelope and other rare wild ungulates. To assess the nature and population effects of this outbreak among wild ungulates, we collected clinical, histopathologic, epidemiologic, and ecological evidence. Molecular characterization confirmed that the causative agent was PPRV lineage IV. The spatiotemporal patterns of cases among wildlife were similar to those among livestock affected by the PPRV outbreak, suggesting spillover of virus from livestock at multiple locations and time points and subsequent spread among wild ungulates. Estimates of saiga abundance suggested a population decline of 80%, raising substantial concerns for the species' survival. Consideration of the entire ungulate community (wild and domestic) is essential for elucidating the epidemiology of PPRV in Mongolia, addressing the threats to wild ungulate conservation, and achieving global PPRV eradication.

Guns, germs, and trees determine density and distribution of gorillas and chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa.

We present a range-wide assessment of sympatric western lowland gorillas Gorilla gorilla gorilla and central chimpanzees Pan troglodytes troglodytes using the largest survey data set ever assembled for these taxa: 59 sites in five countries surveyed between 2003 and 2013, totaling 61,000 person-days of fieldwork. We used spatial modeling to investigate major drivers of great ape distribution and population trends. We predicted density across each taxon's geographic range, allowing us to estimate overall abundance: 361,900 gorillas and 128,700 chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa-substantially higher than previous estimates. These two subspecies represent close to 99% of all gorillas and one-third of all chimpanzees. Annual population decline of gorillas was estimated at 2.7%, maintaining them as Critically Endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List. We quantified the threats to each taxon, of which the three greatest were poaching, disease, and habitat degradation. Gorillas and chimpanzees are found at higher densities where forest is intact, wildlife laws are enforced, human influence is low, and disease impacts have been low. Strategic use of the results of these analyses could conserve the majority of gorillas and chimpanzees. With around 80% of both subspecies occurring outside protected areas, their conservation requires reinforcement of anti-poaching efforts both inside and outside protected areas (particularly where habitat quality is high and human impact is low), diligent disease control measures (including training, advocacy, and research into Ebola virus disease), and the preservation of high-quality habitat through integrated land-use planning and implementation of best practices by the extractive and agricultural industries.

Using occupancy-based surveys and multi-model inference to estimate abundance and distribution of crested gibbons (Nomascus spp.) in central Laos.

Reliable assessments of species' status are prerequisites for monitoring the success of conservation programmes. However, survey conditions such as terrain and inaccessibility, compounded by the low densities of many species across Southeast Asia and other parts of the world are considerable barriers to obtaining robust populations estimates. We used an occupancy-based approach and multi-model inference to generate occupancy and abundance estimates for northern white-cheeked crested gibbons Nomascus leucogenys and southern white-cheeked crested gibbons N. siki in the Nam Kading National Protected Area (NKNPA) in central Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (hereafter Laos). We present these estimates for gibbons within the context of a strategy designed to monitor multiple species and discuss the practical challenges to obtaining sufficient data for robust population estimates to detect change in gibbon status over time. We surveyed approximately 210 km2 of habitat and estimate an abundance of 45 (SE = 17, CV = 37%) groups, giving an average site abundance of 0.21 (SE = 0.08, CV = 37%) groups per km2 . We make recommendations for ongoing gibbon monitoring and discuss the wider implications for cost effective wildlife monitoring in Laos. Am. J. Primatol. 78:462-472, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity.

Seismic surveys negatively affect humpback whale singing activity off northern Angola.

Passive acoustic monitoring was used to document the presence of singing humpback whales off the coast of Northern Angola, and opportunistically test for the effect of seismic survey activity in the vicinity on the number of singing whales. Two Marine Autonomous Recording Units (MARUs) were deployed between March and December 2008 in the offshore environment. Song was first heard in mid June and continued through the remaining duration of the study. Seismic survey activity was heard regularly during two separate periods, consistently throughout July and intermittently in mid-October/November. Numbers of singers were counted during the first ten minutes of every hour for the period from 24 May to 1 December, and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were used to assess the effect of survey day (seasonality), hour (diel variation), moon phase and received levels of seismic survey pulses (measured from a single pulse during each ten-minute sampled period) on singer number. Application of GAMMs indicated significant seasonal variation, which was the most pronounced effect when assessing the full dataset across the entire season (p<0.001); however seasonality almost entirely dropped out of top-ranked models when applied to a reduced dataset during the July period of seismic survey activity. Diel variation was significant in both the full and reduced datasets (from p<0.01 to p<0.05) and often included in the top-ranked models. The number of singers significantly decreased with increasing received level of seismic survey pulses (from p<0.01 to p<0.05); this explanatory variable was included among the top ranked models for one MARU in the full dataset and both MARUs in the reduced dataset. This suggests that the breeding display of humpback whales is disrupted by seismic survey activity, and thus merits further attention and study, and potentially conservation action in the case of sensitive breeding populations.

Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

The spatial structure of hunter access determines the local abundance of forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis).

In many previously remote regions in the world, increasing and often unregulated access is leading to dramatic increases in hunting pressure and declines in the densities of prey species, sometimes to the point of local extinction. Not surprisingly, numerous studies have found a correlation between the distance to the closest access point and prey densities. Here we hypothesized that, for many wide-ranging species, local abundances are reduced by hunting associated with multiple access points as opposed to just the closest access points. We also hypothesized that the distribution of hunter access determines both patterns of occupancy and abundance in occupied areas and that these two patterns (occupancy and abundance) respond to access at different spatial scales. Using data on the distribution of abundances of African forest elephant (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) in and around five national parks in Central Africa, we tested these hypotheses using a model comparison framework. We found that models including an index based on the distance to multiple roads outperformed models including other access-based covariates, including a model based on distance to the closest road only. We also found that models that allowed us to model occupancy and abundance separately outperformed simpler models. Occupancy responds to access at the same scale as previous estimates of average maximum displacement in the subspecies, while the scale of the response of abundance is more ambiguous, but appears to be greater. Lastly, we show that incorporating indices based on multiple access points and modeling abundance and occupancy has important practical consequences for our understanding of overall regional abundances and the distribution of abundances within regions.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size.

1.Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance.2.We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use.3.Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated.4.A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modelling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark-recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance.5.All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap.6.Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modelling analysis engine for spatial and habitat modelling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software.7.Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of-the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practising ecologists.

Monitoring great ape and elephant abundance at large spatial scales: measuring effectiveness of a conservation landscape.

Protected areas are fundamental to biodiversity conservation, but there is growing recognition of the need to extend beyond protected areas to meet the ecological requirements of species at larger scales. Landscape-scale conservation requires an evaluation of management impact on biodiversity under different land-use strategies; this is challenging and there exist few empirical studies. In a conservation landscape in northern Republic of Congo we demonstrate the application of a large-scale monitoring program designed to evaluate the impact of conservation interventions on three globally threatened species: western gorillas, chimpanzees and forest elephants, under three land-use types: integral protection, commercial logging, and community-based natural resource management. We applied distance-sampling methods to examine species abundance across different land-use types under varying degrees of management and human disturbance. We found no clear trends in abundance between land-use types. However, units with interventions designed to reduce poaching and protect habitats--irrespective of land-use type--harboured all three species at consistently higher abundance than a neighbouring logging concession undergoing no wildlife management. We applied Generalized-Additive Models to evaluate a priori predictions of species response to different landscape processes. Our results indicate that, given adequate protection from poaching, elephants and gorillas can profit from herbaceous vegetation in recently logged forests and maintain access to ecologically important resources located outside of protected areas. However, proximity to the single integrally protected area in the landscape maintained an overriding positive influence on elephant abundance, and logging roads--even subject to anti-poaching controls--were exploited by elephant poachers and had a major negative influence on elephant distribution. Chimpanzees show a clear preference for unlogged or more mature forests and human disturbance had a negative influence on chimpanzee abundance, in spite of anti-poaching interventions. We caution against the pitfalls of missing and confounded co-variables in model-based estimation approaches and highlight the importance of spatial scale in the response of different species to landscape processes. We stress the importance of a stratified design-based approach to monitoring species status in response to conservation interventions and advocate a holistic framework for landscape-scale monitoring that includes smaller-scale targeted research and punctual assessment of threats.

Roadless wilderness area determines forest elephant movements in the Congo Basin.

A dramatic expansion of road building is underway in the Congo Basin fuelled by private enterprise, international aid, and government aspirations. Among the great wilderness areas on earth, the Congo Basin is outstanding for its high biodiversity, particularly mobile megafauna including forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis). The abundance of many mammal species in the Basin increases with distance from roads due to hunting pressure, but the impacts of road proliferation on the movements of individuals are unknown. We investigated the ranging behaviour of forest elephants in relation to roads and roadless wilderness by fitting GPS telemetry collars onto a sample of 28 forest elephants living in six priority conservation areas. We show that the size of roadless wilderness is a strong determinant of home range size in this species. Though our study sites included the largest wilderness areas in central African forests, none of 4 home range metrics we calculated, including core area, tended toward an asymptote with increasing wilderness size, suggesting that uninhibited ranging in forest elephants no longer exists. Furthermore we show that roads outside protected areas which are not protected from hunting are a formidable barrier to movement while roads inside protected areas are not. Only 1 elephant from our sample crossed an unprotected road. During crossings her mean speed increased 14-fold compared to normal movements. Forest elephants are increasingly confined and constrained by roads across the Congo Basin which is reducing effective habitat availability and isolating populations, significantly threatening long term conservation efforts. If the current road development trajectory continues, forest wildernesses and the forest elephants they contain will collapse.

Forest elephant crisis in the Congo Basin.

Debate over repealing the ivory trade ban dominates conferences of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Resolving this controversy requires accurate estimates of elephant population trends and rates of illegal killing. Most African savannah elephant populations are well known; however, the status of forest elephants, perhaps a distinct species, in the vast Congo Basin is unclear. We assessed population status and incidence of poaching from line-transect and reconnaissance surveys conducted on foot in sites throughout the Congo Basin. Results indicate that the abundance and range of forest elephants are threatened from poaching that is most intense close to roads. The probability of elephant presence increased with distance to roads, whereas that of human signs declined. At all distances from roads, the probability of elephant occurrence was always higher inside, compared to outside, protected areas, whereas that of humans was always lower. Inside protected areas, forest elephant density was correlated with the size of remote forest core, but not with size of protected area. Forest elephants must be prioritised in elephant management planning at the continental scale.