Identifying low-dimensional trajectories of mechanically-ventilated patient systems: Empirical phenotypes of joint patient+care processes to enhance temporal analysis in ARDS research.

Refined management of mechanically ventilation is an obvious target for improving patient outcomes, but is impeded by the nature of data for study and hypothesis generation. The connections between clinical outcomes and temporal development of iatrogenic injuries current lung-protective ventilator settings remain poorly understood. Analysis of lung-ventilator system (LVS) evolution at relevant timescales is frustrated by data volume and multiple sources of heterogeneity. This work motivates, presents, and validates a computational pipeline for resolving LVS systems into the joint evolution of data-conditioned model parameters and ventilator information. Applied to individuals, the workflow yields a concise low-dimensional representation of LVS behavior expressed in phenotypic breath waveforms suitable for analysis. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through application to multi-day observational series of 35 patients. Individual patient analyses reveal multiple types of patient-oriented dynamics and breath behavior to expose the complexity of LVS evolution; less than 10% of phenotype changes related to ventilator settings changes. Dynamics are shown to including both stable and unstable phenotype transitions as well as both discrete and continuous changes unrelated to ventilator settings. At a cohort scale, 721 phenotypes constructed from individual data are condensed into a set of 16 groups that empirically organize around certain settings (positive end-expository pressure and ventilator mode) and structurally similar pressure-volume loop characterizations. Individual and cohort scale phenotypes, which may be refined by hypothesis-specific constructions, provide a common framework for ongoing temporal analysis and investigation of LVS dynamics.

Intracranial pressure-flow relationships in traumatic brain injury patients expose gaps in the tenets of models and pressure-oriented management.

Background: The protocols and therapeutic guidance established for treating traumatic brain injuries (TBI) in neurointensive care focus on managing cerebral blood flow (CBF) and brain tissue oxygenation based on pressure signals. The decision support process relies on assumed relationships between cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) and blood flow, pressure-flow relationships (PFRs), and shares this framework of assumptions with mathematical intracranial hemodynamic models. These foundational assumptions are difficult to verify, and their violation can impact clinical decision-making and model validity. Method: A hypothesis- and model-driven method for verifying and understanding the foundational intracranial hemodynamic PFRs is developed and applied to a novel multi-modality monitoring dataset. Results: Model analysis of joint observations of CPP and CBF validates the standard PFR when autoregulatory processes are impaired as well as unmodelable cases dominated by autoregulation. However, it also identifies a dynamical regime -or behavior pattern- where the PFR assumptions are wrong in a precise, data-inferable way due to negative CPP-CBF coordination over long timescales. This regime is of both clinical and research interest: its dynamics are modelable under modified assumptions while its causal direction and mechanistic pathway remain unclear. Conclusions: Motivated by the understanding of mathematical physiology, the validity of the standard PFR can be assessed a) directly by analyzing pressure reactivity and mean flow indices (PRx and Mx) or b) indirectly through the relationship between CBF and other clinical observables. This approach could potentially help personalize TBI care by considering intracranial pressure and CPP in relation to other data, particularly CBF. The analysis suggests a threshold using clinical indices of autoregulation jointly generalizes independently set indicators to assess CA functionality. These results support the use of increasingly data-rich environments to develop more robust hybrid physiological-machine learning models.

A methodology of phenotyping ICU patients from EHR data: High-fidelity, personalized, and interpretable phenotypes estimation.

OBJECTIVE: Computing phenotypes that provide high-fidelity, time-dependent characterizations and yield personalized interpretations is challenging, especially given the complexity of physiological and healthcare systems and clinical data quality. This paper develops a methodological pipeline to estimate unmeasured physiological parameters and produce high-fidelity, personalized phenotypes anchored to physiological mechanics from electronic health record (EHR). METHODS: A methodological phenotyping pipeline is developed that computes new phenotypes defined with unmeasurable computational biomarkers quantifying specific physiological properties in real time. Working within the inverse problem framework, this pipeline is applied to the glucose-insulin system for ICU patients using data assimilation to estimate an established mathematical physiological model with stochastic optimization. This produces physiological model parameter vectors of clinically unmeasured endocrine properties, here insulin secretion, clearance, and resistance, estimated for individual patient. These physiological parameter vectors are used as inputs to unsupervised machine learning methods to produce phenotypic labels and discrete physiological phenotypes. These phenotypes are inherently interpretable because they are based on parametric physiological descriptors. To establish potential clinical utility, the computed phenotypes are evaluated with external EHR data for consistency and reliability and with clinician face validation. RESULTS: The phenotype computation was performed on a cohort of 109 ICU patients who received no or short-acting insulin therapy, rendering continuous and discrete physiological phenotypes as specific computational biomarkers of unmeasured insulin secretion, clearance, and resistance on time windows of three days. Six, six, and five discrete phenotypes were found in the first, middle, and last three-day periods of ICU stays, respectively. Computed phenotypic labels were predictive with an average accuracy of 89%. External validation of discrete phenotypes showed coherence and consistency in clinically observable differences based on laboratory measurements and ICD 9/10 codes and clinical concordance from face validity. A particularly clinically impactful parameter, insulin secretion, had a concordance accuracy of 83%±27%. CONCLUSION: The new physiological phenotypes computed with individual patient ICU data and defined by estimates of mechanistic model parameters have high physiological fidelity, are continuous, time-specific, personalized, interpretable, and predictive. This methodology is generalizable to other clinical and physiological settings and opens the door for discovering deeper physiological information to personalize medical care.

A methodology of phenotyping ICU patients from EHR data: high-fidelity, personalized, and interpretable phenotypes estimation.

Objective: Computing phenotypes that provide high-fidelity, time-dependent characterizations and yield personalized interpretations is challenging, especially given the complexity of physiological and healthcare systems and clinical data quality. This paper develops a methodological pipeline to estimate unmeasured physiological parameters and produce high-fidelity, personalized phenotypes anchored to physiological mechanics from electronic health record (EHR). Methods: A methodological phenotyping pipeline is developed that computes new phenotypes defined with unmeasurable computational biomarkers quantifying specific physiological properties in real time. Working within the inverse problem framework, this pipeline is applied to the glucose-insulin system for ICU patients using data assimilation to estimate an established mathematical physiological model with stochastic optimization. This produces physiological model parameter vectors of clinically unmeasured endocrine properties, here insulin secretion, clearance, and resistance, estimated for individual patient. These physiological parameter vectors are used as inputs to unsupervised machine learning methods to produce phenotypic labels and discrete physiological phenotypes. These phenotypes are inherently interpretable because they are based on parametric physiological descriptors. To establish potential clinical utility, the computed phenotypes are evaluated with external EHR data for consistency and reliability and with clinician face validation. Results: The phenotype computation was performed on a cohort of 109 ICU patients who received no or short-acting insulin therapy, rendering continuous and discrete physiological phenotypes as specific computational biomarkers of unmeasured insulin secretion, clearance, and resistance on time windows of three days. Six, six, and five discrete phenotypes were found in the first, middle, and last three-day periods of ICU stays, respectively. Computed phenotypic labels were predictive with an average accuracy of 89%. External validation of discrete phenotypes showed coherence and consistency in clinically observable differences based on laboratory measurements and ICD 9/10 codes and clinical concordance from face validity. A particularly clinically impactful parameter, insulin secretion, had a concordance accuracy of 83% ± 27%. Conclusion: The new physiological phenotypes computed with individual patient ICU data and defined by estimates of mechanistic model parameters have high physiological fidelity, are continuous, time-specific, personalized, interpretable, and predictive. This methodology is generalizable to other clinical and physiological settings and opens the door for discovering deeper physiological information to personalize medical care.

Hypothesis-driven modeling of the human lung-ventilator system: A characterization tool for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome research.

Mechanical ventilation is an essential tool in the management of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), but it exposes patients to the risk of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). The human lung-ventilator system (LVS) involves the interaction of complex anatomy with a mechanical apparatus, which limits the ability of process-based models to provide individualized clinical support. This work proposes a hypothesis-driven strategy for LVS modeling in which robust personalization is achieved using a pre-defined parameter basis in a non-physiological model. Model inversion, here via windowed data assimilation, forges observed waveforms into interpretable parameter values that characterize the data rather than quantifying physiological processes. Accurate, model-based inference on human-ventilator data indicates model flexibility and utility over a variety of breath types, including those from dyssynchronous LVSs. Estimated parameters generate static characterizations of the data that are 50%-70% more accurate than breath-wise single-compartment model estimates. They also retain sufficient information to distinguish between the types of breath they represent. However, the fidelity and interpretability of model characterizations are tied to parameter definitions and model resolution. These additional factors must be considered in conjunction with the objectives of specific applications, such as identifying and tracking the development of human VILI.

Real-time electronic health record mortality prediction during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To rapidly develop, validate, and implement a novel real-time mortality score for the COVID-19 pandemic that improves upon sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) for decision support for a Crisis Standards of Care team. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed, verified, and deployed a stacked generalization model to predict mortality using data available in the electronic health record (EHR) by combining 5 previously validated scores and additional novel variables reported to be associated with COVID-19-specific mortality. We verified the model with prospectively collected data from 12 hospitals in Colorado between March 2020 and July 2020. We compared the area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) for the new model to the SOFA score and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: The prospective cohort included 27 296 encounters, of which 1358 (5.0%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, 4494 (16.5%) required intensive care unit care, 1480 (5.4%) required mechanical ventilation, and 717 (2.6%) ended in death. The Charlson Comorbidity Index and SOFA scores predicted mortality with an AUROC of 0.72 and 0.90, respectively. Our novel score predicted mortality with AUROC 0.94. In the subset of patients with COVID-19, the stacked model predicted mortality with AUROC 0.90, whereas SOFA had AUROC of 0.85. DISCUSSION: Stacked regression allows a flexible, updatable, live-implementable, ethically defensible predictive analytics tool for decision support that begins with validated models and includes only novel information that improves prediction. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated an accurate in-hospital mortality prediction score in a live EHR for automatic and continuous calculation using a novel model that improved upon SOFA.

Clinical Decision Support for Traumatic Brain Injury: Identifying a Framework for Practical Model-Based Intracranial Pressure Estimation at Multihour Timescales.

BACKGROUND: The clinical mitigation of intracranial hypertension due to traumatic brain injury requires timely knowledge of intracranial pressure to avoid secondary injury or death. Noninvasive intracranial pressure (nICP) estimation that operates sufficiently fast at multihour timescales and requires only common patient measurements is a desirable tool for clinical decision support and improving traumatic brain injury patient outcomes. However, existing model-based nICP estimation methods may be too slow or require data that are not easily obtained. OBJECTIVE: This work considers short- and real-time nICP estimation at multihour timescales based on arterial blood pressure (ABP) to better inform the ongoing development of practical models with commonly available data. METHODS: We assess and analyze the effects of two distinct pathways of model development, either by increasing physiological integration using a simple pressure estimation model, or by increasing physiological fidelity using a more complex model. Comparison of the model approaches is performed using a set of quantitative model validation criteria over hour-scale times applied to model nICP estimates in relation to observed ICP. RESULTS: The simple fully coupled estimation scheme based on windowed regression outperforms a more complex nICP model with prescribed intracranial inflow when pulsatile ABP inflow conditions are provided. We also show that the simple estimation data requirements can be reduced to 1-minute averaged ABP summary data under generic waveform representation. CONCLUSIONS: Stronger performance of the simple bidirectional model indicates that feedback between the systemic vascular network and nICP estimation scheme is crucial for modeling over long intervals. However, simple model reduction to ABP-only dependence limits its utility in cases involving other brain injuries such as ischemic stroke and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Additional methodologies and considerations needed to overcome these limitations are illustrated and discussed.

Real-Time Electronic Health Record Mortality Prediction During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 virus has infected millions of people, overwhelming critical care resources in some regions. Many plans for rationing critical care resources during crises are based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. The COVID-19 pandemic created an emergent need to develop and validate a novel electronic health record (EHR)-computable tool to predict mortality. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: To rapidly develop, validate, and implement a novel real-time mortality score for the COVID-19 pandemic that improves upon SOFA. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of a regional health system with 12 hospitals in Colorado between March 2020 and July 2020. All patients >14 years old hospitalized during the study period without a do not resuscitate order were included. Patients were stratified by the diagnosis of COVID-19. From this cohort, we developed and validated a model using stacked generalization to predict mortality using data widely available in the EHR by combining five previously validated scores and additional novel variables reported to be associated with COVID-19-specific mortality. We compared the area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) for the new model to the SOFA score and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: We prospectively analyzed 27,296 encounters, of which 1,358 (5.0%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, 4,494 (16.5%) included intensive care unit (ICU)-level care, 1,480 (5.4%) included invasive mechanical ventilation, and 717 (2.6%) ended in death. The Charlson Comorbidity Index and SOFA scores predicted overall mortality with an AUROC of 0.72 and 0.90, respectively. Our novel score predicted overall mortality with AUROC 0.94. In the subset of patients with COVID-19, we predicted mortality with AUROC 0.90, whereas SOFA had AUROC of 0.85. INTERPRETATION: We developed and validated an accurate, in-hospital mortality prediction score in a live EHR for automatic and continuous calculation using a novel model, that improved upon SOFA. TAKE HOME POINTS: Study Question: Can we improve upon the SOFA score for real-time mortality prediction during the COVID-19 pandemic by leveraging electronic health record (EHR) data?Results: We rapidly developed and implemented a novel yet SOFA-anchored mortality model across 12 hospitals and conducted a prospective cohort study of 27,296 adult hospitalizations, 1,358 (5.0%) of which were positive for SARS-CoV-2. The Charlson Comorbidity Index and SOFA scores predicted all-cause mortality with AUROCs of 0.72 and 0.90, respectively. Our novel score predicted mortality with AUROC 0.94.Interpretation: A novel EHR-based mortality score can be rapidly implemented to better predict patient outcomes during an evolving pandemic.