A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification.

Volcanic activity typically switches between high-activity states with many eruptions and low-activity states with few or no eruptions. We present a simple two-regime physics-informed statistical model that allows interpreting temporal modulations in eruptive activity. The model enhances comprehension and comparison of different volcanic systems and enables homogeneous integration into multivolcano hazard assessments that account for potential changes in volcanic regimes. The model satisfactorily fits the eruptive history of the three active volcanoes in the Neapolitan area, Italy (Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia) which encompass a wide range of volcanic behaviors. We find that these volcanoes have appreciably different processes for triggering and ending high-activity periods connected to different dominant volcanic processes controlling their eruptive activity, with different characteristic times and activity rates (expressed as number of eruptions per time interval). Presently, all three volcanoes are judged to be in a low-activity state, with decreasing probability of eruptions for Mt. Vesuvius, Ischia, and Campi Flegrei, respectively.

Garnet petrochronology reveals the lifetime and dynamics of phonolitic magma chambers at Somma-Vesuvius.

Somma-Vesuvius is one of the most iconic active volcanoes with historic and archeological records of numerous hazardous eruptions. Petrologic studies of eruptive products provide insights into the evolution of the magma reservoir before eruption. Here, we quantify the duration of shallow crustal storage and document the evolution of phonolitic magmas before major eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius. Garnet uranium-thorium petrochronology suggests progressively shorter pre-eruption residence times throughout the lifetime of the volcano. Residence times mirror the repose intervals between eruptions, implying that distinct phonolite magma batches were present throughout most of the volcano's evolution, thereby controlling the eruption dynamics by preventing the ascent of mafic magmas from longer-lived and deeper reservoirs. Frequent lower-energy eruptions during the recent history sample this deeper reservoir and suggest that future Plinian eruptions are unlikely without centuries of volcanic quiescence. Crystal residence times from other volcanoes reveal that long-lived deep-seated reservoirs and transient upper crustal magma chambers are common features of subvolcanic plumbing systems.

Inverting sediment bedforms for evaluating the hazard of dilute pyroclastic density currents in the field.

Pyroclastic density currents are ground hugging gas-particle flows associated to explosive volcanic eruptions and moving down a volcano's slope, causing devastation and deaths. Because of the hostile nature they cannot be analyzed directly and most of their fluid dynamic behavior is reconstructed by the deposits left in the geological record, which frequently show peculiar structures such as ripples and dune bedforms. Here, a set of equations is simplified to link flow behavior to particle motion and deposition. This allows to construct a phase diagram by which impact parameters of dilute pyroclastic density currents, representing important factors of hazard, can be calculated by inverting bedforms wavelength and grain size, without the need of more complex models that require extensive work in the laboratory.

Lake Ohrid's tephrochronological dataset reveals 1.36 Ma of Mediterranean explosive volcanic activity.

Tephrochronology relies on the availability of the stratigraphical, geochemical and geochronological datasets of volcanic deposits, three preconditions which are both often only fragmentary accessible. This study presents the tephrochronological dataset from the Lake Ohrid (Balkans) sediment succession continuously reaching back to 1.36 Ma. 57 tephra layers were investigated for their morphological appearance, geochemical fingerprint, and (chrono-)stratigraphic position. Glass fragments of tephra layers were analyzed for their major element composition using Energy-Dispersive-Spectroscopy and Wavelength-Dispersive Spectroscopy and for their trace element composition by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry. Radiometric dated equivalents of 16 tephra layers and orbital tuning of geochemical proxy data provided the basis for the age-depth model of the Lake Ohrid sediment succession. The age-depth model, in turn, provides ages for unknown or undated tephra layers. This dataset forms the basis for a regional stratigraphic framework and provides insights into the central Mediterranean explosive volcanic activity during the last 1.36 Ma.

The impact of pyroclastic density currents duration on humans: the case of the AD 79 eruption of Vesuvius.

Pyroclastic density currents are ground hugging gas-particle flows that originate from the collapse of an eruption column or lava dome. They move away from the volcano at high speed, causing devastation. The impact is generally associated with flow dynamic pressure and temperature. Little emphasis has yet been given to flow duration, although it is emerging that the survival of people engulfed in a current strongly depends on the exposure time. The AD 79 event of Somma-Vesuvius is used here to demonstrate the impact of pyroclastic density currents on humans during an historical eruption. At Herculaneum, at the foot of the volcano, the temperature and strength of the flow were so high that survival was impossible. At Pompeii, in the distal area, we use a new model indicating that the current had low strength and low temperature, which is confirmed by the absence of signs of trauma on corpses. Under such conditions, survival should have been possible if the current lasted a few minutes or less. Instead, our calculations demonstrate a flow duration of 17 min, long enough to make lethal the breathing of ash suspended in the current. We conclude that in distal areas where the mechanical and thermal effects of a pyroclastic density currents are diminished, flow duration is the key for survival.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years.

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.