Autonomous materials synthesis via hierarchical active learning of nonequilibrium phase diagrams.

Autonomous experimentation enabled by artificial intelligence offers a new paradigm for accelerating scientific discovery. Nonequilibrium materials synthesis is emblematic of complex, resource-intensive experimentation whose acceleration would be a watershed for materials discovery. We demonstrate accelerated exploration of metastable materials through hierarchical autonomous experimentation governed by the Scientific Autonomous Reasoning Agent (SARA). SARA integrates robotic materials synthesis using lateral gradient laser spike annealing and optical characterization along with a hierarchy of AI methods to map out processing phase diagrams. Efficient exploration of the multidimensional parameter space is achieved with nested active learning cycles built upon advanced machine learning models that incorporate the underlying physics of the experiments and end-to-end uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate SARA's performance by autonomously mapping synthesis phase boundaries for the Bi2O3 system, leading to orders-of-magnitude acceleration in the establishment of a synthesis phase diagram that includes conditions for stabilizing δ-Bi2O3 at room temperature, a critical development for electrochemical technologies.

Managing ecosystems in a sea of uncertainty: invasive species management and assisted colonizations.

Managing ecosystems in the face of complex species interactions, and the associated uncertainty, presents a considerable ecological challenge. Altering those interactions via actions such as invasive species management or conservation translocations can result in unintended consequences, supporting the need to be able to make more informed decisions in the face of this uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of ecosystem models to reduce uncertainty and inform future ecosystem management. We use Phillip Island, Australia, as a case study to investigate the impacts of two invasive species management options and consider whether a critically endangered mammal is likely to establish a population in the presence of invasive species. Qualitative models are used to determine the effects of apex predator removal (feral cats) and invasive prey removal (rabbits, rats, and mice). We extend this approach using Ensemble Ecosystem Models to consider how suppression, rather than eradication influences the species community; and consider whether an introduction of the critically endangered eastern barred bandicoot is likely to be successful in the presence of invasive species. Our analysis revealed the potential for unintended outcomes associated with feral cat control operations, with rats and rabbits expected to increase in abundance. A strategy based on managing prey species appeared to have the most ecosystem-wide benefits, with rodent control showing more favorable responses than a rabbit control strategy. Eastern barred bandicoots were predicted to persist under all feral cat control levels (including no control). Managing ecosystems is a complex and imprecise process. However, qualitative modeling and ensemble ecosystem modeling address uncertainty and are capable of improving and optimizing management practices. Our analysis shows that the best conservation outcomes may not always be associated with the top-down control of apex predators, and land managers should think more broadly in relation to managing bottom-up processes as well. Challenges faced in continuing to conserve biodiversity mean new, bolder, conservation actions are needed. We suggest that endangered species are capable of surviving in the presence of feral cats, potentially opening the door for more conservation translocations.

Optical Identification of Materials Transformations in Oxide Thin Films.

Recent advances in high-throughput experimentation for combinatorial studies have accelerated the discovery and analysis of materials across a wide range of compositions and synthesis conditions. However, many of the more powerful characterization methods are limited by speed, cost, availability, and/or resolution. To make efficient use of these methods, there is value in developing approaches for identifying critical compositions and conditions to be used as a priori knowledge for follow-up characterization with high-precision techniques, such as micrometer-scale synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction (XRD). Here, we demonstrate the use of optical microscopy and reflectance spectroscopy to identify likely phase-change boundaries in thin film libraries. These methods are used to delineate possible metastable phase boundaries following lateral-gradient laser spike annealing (lg-LSA) of oxide materials. The set of boundaries are then compared with definitive determinations of structural transformations obtained using high-resolution XRD. We demonstrate that the optical methods detect more than 95% of the structural transformations in a composition-gradient La-Mn-O library and a Ga2O3 sample, both subject to an extensive set of lg-LSA anneals. Our results provide quantitative support for the value of optically detected transformations as a priori data to guide subsequent structural characterization, ultimately accelerating and enhancing the efficient implementation of micrometer-resolution XRD experiments.

Comparison of the modified agglutination test and real-time PCR for detection of Toxoplasma gondii exposure in feral cats from Phillip Island, Australia, and risk factors associated with infection.

Toxoplasma gondii is considered a disease risk for many native Australian species. Feral cats are the key definitive host of T. gondii in Australia and therefore, investigating the epidemiology of T. gondii in cat populations is essential to understanding the risk posed to wildlife. Test sensitivity and specificity are poorly defined for diagnostic tests targeting T. gondii in cats and there is a need for validated techniques. This study focused on the feral cat population on Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia. We compared a novel real-time PCR (qPCR) protocol to the modified agglutination test (MAT) and used a Bayesian latent class modelling approach to assess the diagnostic parameters of each assay and estimate the true prevalence of T. gondii in feral cats. In addition, we performed multivariable logistic regression to determine risk factors associated with T. gondii infection in cats. Overall T. gondii prevalence by qPCR and MAT was 79.5% (95% confidence interval 72.6-85.0) and 91.8% (84.6-95.8), respectively. Bayesian modelling estimated the sensitivity and specificity of the MAT as 96.2% (95% credible interval 91.8-98.8) and 82.1% (64.9-93.6), and qPCR as 90.1% (83.6-95.5) and 96.0% (82.1-99.8), respectively. True prevalence of T. gondii infection in feral cats on Phillip Island was estimated as 90.3% (83.2-95.1). Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that T. gondii infection was positively associated with weight and this effect was modified by season. Cats trapped in winter had a high probability of infection, regardless of weight. The present study suggests qPCR applied to tissue is a highly sensitive, specific and logistically feasible tool for T. gondii testing in feral cat populations. Additionally, T. gondii infection is highly prevalent in feral cats on Phillip Island, which may have significant impacts on endemic and introduced marsupial populations.

Circadian rhythms enable efficient resource selection in a human-modified landscape.

Animals access resources such as food and shelter, and acquiring these resources has varying risks and benefits, depending on the suitability of the landscape. Some animals change their patterns of resource selection in space and time to optimize the trade-off between risks and benefits. We examine the circadian variation in resource selection of swamp wallabies (Wallabia bicolor) within a human-modified landscape, an environment of varying suitability. We used GPS data from 48 swamp wallabies to compare the use of landscape features such as woodland and scrub, housing estates, farmland, coastal areas, wetlands, waterbodies, and roads to their availability using generalized linear mixed models. We investigated which features were selected by wallabies and determined whether the distance to different landscape features changed, depending on the time of the day. During the day, wallabies were more likely to be found within or near natural landscape features such as woodlands and scrub, wetlands, and coastal vegetation, while avoiding landscape features that may be perceived as more risky (roads, housing, waterbodies, and farmland), but those features were selected more at night. Finally, we mapped our results to predict habitat suitability for swamp wallabies in human-modified landscapes. We showed that wallabies living in a human-modified landscape selected different landscape features during day or night. Changing circadian patterns of resource selection might enhance the persistence of species in landscapes where resources are fragmented and disturbed.

Kinetics of the Topochemical Transformation of (PbSe) m(TiSe2) n(SnSe2) m(TiSe2) n to (Pb0.5Sn0.5Se) m(TiSe2) n.

Solid-state reaction kinetics on atomic length scales have not been heavily investigated due to the long times, high reaction temperatures, and small reaction volumes at interfaces in solid-state reactions. All of these conditions present significant analytical challenges in following reaction pathways. Herein we use in situ and ex situ X-ray diffraction, in situ X-ray reflectivity, high-angle annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to investigate the mechanistic pathways for the formation of a layered (Pb0.5Sn0.5Se)1+δ(TiSe2) m heterostructure, where m is the varying number of TiSe2 layers in the repeating structure. Thin film precursors were vapor deposited as elemental-modulated layers into an artificial superlattice with Pb and Sn in independent layers, creating a repeating unit with twice the size of the final structure. At low temperatures, the precursor undergoes only a crystallization event to form an intermediate (SnSe2)1+γ(TiSe2) m(PbSe)1+δ(TiSe2) m superstructure. At higher temperatures, this superstructure transforms into a (Pb0.5Sn0.5Se)1+δ(TiSe2) m alloyed structure. The rate of decay of superlattice reflections of the (SnSe2)1+γ(TiSe2) m(PbSe)1+δ(TiSe2) m superstructure was used as the indicator of the progress of the reaction. We show that increasing the number of TiSe2 layers does not decrease the rate at which the SnSe2 and PbSe layers alloy, suggesting that at these temperatures it is reduction of the SnSe2 to SnSe and Se that is rate limiting in the formation of the alloy and not the associated diffusion of Sn and Pb through the TiSe2 layers.

Understanding meta-population trends of the Australian fur seal, with insights for adaptive monitoring.

Effective ecosystem-based management requires estimates of abundance and population trends of species of interest. Trend analyses are often limited due to sparse or short-term abundance estimates for populations that can be logistically difficult to monitor over time. Therefore it is critical to assess regularly the quality of the metrics in long-term monitoring programs. For a monitoring program to provide meaningful data and remain relevant, it needs to incorporate technological improvements and the changing requirements of stakeholders, while maintaining the integrity of the data. In this paper we critically examine the monitoring program for the Australian fur seal (AFS) Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus as an example of an ad-hoc monitoring program that was co-ordinated across multiple stakeholders as a range-wide census of live pups in the Austral summers of 2002, 2007 and 2013. This 5-yearly census, combined with historic counts at individual sites, successfully tracked increasing population trends as signs of population recovery up to 2007. The 2013 census identified the first reduction in AFS pup numbers (14,248 live pups, -4.2% change per annum since 2007), however we have limited information to understand this change. We analyse the trends at breeding colonies and perform a power analysis to critically examine the reliability of those trends. We then assess the gaps in the monitoring program and discuss how we may transition this surveillance style program to an adaptive monitoring program than can evolve over time and achieve its goals. The census results are used for ecosystem-based modelling for fisheries management and emergency response planning. The ultimate goal for this program is to obtain the data we need with minimal cost, effort and impact on the fur seals. In conclusion we identify the importance of power analyses for interpreting trends, the value of regularly assessing long-term monitoring programs and proper design so that adaptive monitoring principles can be applied.

Biotelemetry marches on: A cost-effective GPS device for monitoring terrestrial wildlife.

The availability of low-cost wildlife trackers increases the capacity to collect valuable ecological data when research budgets are limited. We converted a commercially available global positioning system (GPS) product into a low-cost tracking device that sends data via the mobile phone network, and assessed its performance under varying conditions. We established a stationary test, deploying devices along a continuum from open urban areas to topographically and structurally complex forested sites. We tested three features of the device: (a) the GPS, by measuring fix success rate, fix precision and horizontal dilution of precision (HDOP), (b) remote download capacity via the mobile phone network and (c) battery drain. Measures of GPS performance demonstrated high fix success rates and precision. HDOP values were influenced by habitat type and topographical position, but generally remained very low, giving an acceptable degree of error for most applications in wildlife research. Devices experienced delayed data transmission at sites with less phone reception, and faster battery drain at sites with denser vegetation. We recorded device malfunctions in 8.2% of the 110 sampling locations, but these were not associated with habitat type or topography. Our device was effective under a wide range of conditions, and the development process we used provides guidance to other researchers aiming to develop cost-effective wildlife trackers. Reducing the financial and labour costs of acquiring high-quality movement data will improve the capacity to increase sample size in animal movement studies.

Structural Changes as a Function of Thickness in [(SnSe)1+δ]mTiSe2 Heterostructures.

Single- and few-layer metal chalcogenide compounds are of significant interest due to structural changes and emergent electronic properties on reducing dimensionality from three to two dimensions. To explore dimensionality effects in SnSe, a series of [(SnSe)1+δ]mTiSe2 intergrowth structures with increasing SnSe layer thickness (m = 1-4) were prepared from designed thin-film precursors. In-plane diffraction patterns indicated that significant structural changes occurred in the basal plane of the SnSe constituent as m is increased. Scanning transmission electron microscopy cross-sectional images of the m = 1 compound indicate long-range coherence between layers, whereas the m ≥ 2 compounds show extensive rotational disorder between the constituent layers. For m ≥ 2, the images of the SnSe constituent contain a variety of stacking sequences of SnSe bilayers. Density functional theory calculations suggest that the formation energy is similar for several different SnSe stacking sequences. The compounds show unexpected transport properties as m is increased, including the first p-type behavior observed in (MSe)m(TiSe2)n compounds. The resistivity of the m ≥ 2 compounds is larger than for m = 1, with m = 2 being the largest. At room temperature, the Hall coefficient is positive for m = 1 and negative for m = 2-4. The Hall coefficient of the m = 2 compound changes sign as temperature is decreased. The room-temperature Seebeck coefficient, however, switches from negative to positive at m = 3. These properties are incompatible with single band transport indicating that the compounds are not simple composites.

The synthesis of [(PbSe)1+δ]m(TiSe2)n[(SnSe2)1+γ]m(TiSe2)n heterostructures with designed nanoarchitectures by self assembly of amorphous precursors.

Targeted heterostructures containing intergrown two dimensional (2D) layers of 3 different constituent layers, SnSe2, PbSe and TiSe2, were prepared by controlling the composition and sequence of elemental bilayers within a designed precursor. Varying the structure of the precursor enabled the number of structural units of each constituent and the sequence of crystalline 2D layers to be precisely controlled. The stacking of the 2D layers, their structures, and the segregation of the elements between them were determined using X-ray diffraction and electron microscopy techniques, with the observed sequence of the 2D layers consistent with the targeted intergrowth. This ability to prepare targeted heterostructures is critical, since the number of possible configurations in the final compound increases rapidly as the number of constituents increases, from almost 60 000 with two constituents to over 130 million with three constituents and to over 35 billion with four constituents for 20 or fewer distinct layers in the unit cell. This general route for synthesizing specific multiple component heterostructures will accelerate the feedback loop in this growing research area, permitting theorists to assume specific structures in the search for enhanced properties and providing experimentalists with crystallographically aligned samples to test these predictions.

Drivers and annual estimates of marine wildlife entanglement rates: A long-term case study with Australian fur seals.

Methods of calculating wildlife entanglement rates are not standardised between studies and often ignore the influence of observer effort, confounding comparisons. From 1997-2013 we identified 359 entangled Australian fur seals at Seal Rocks, south-eastern Australia. Most entanglement materials originated from commercial fisheries; most frequently entangling pups and juveniles. Using Generalized Additive Mixed Models, which incorporated observer effort and survey frequency, we identified that entanglements were observed more frequently amongst pups from July to October as they approached weaning. Neither the decline in regional fishing intensity nor changing seal population size influenced the incidence of entanglements. Using the models, we estimated that 302 (95% CI=182-510) entangled seals were at Seal Rocks each year, equivalent to 1.0% (CI=0.6-1.7%) of the site population. This study highlights the influence of observer effort and the value of long-term datasets for determining the drivers of marine debris entanglements.

Camera trapping: a contemporary approach to monitoring invasive rodents in high conservation priority ecosystems.

Invasive rodent species have established on 80% of the world's islands causing significant damage to island environments. Insular ecosystems support proportionally more biodiversity than comparative mainland areas, highlighting them as critical for global biodiversity conservation. Few techniques currently exist to adequately detect, with high confidence, species that are trap-adverse such as the black rat, Rattus rattus, in high conservation priority areas where multiple non-target species persist. This study investigates the effectiveness of camera trapping for monitoring invasive rodents in high conservation areas, and the influence of habitat features and density of colonial-nesting seabirds on rodent relative activity levels to provide insights into their potential impacts. A total of 276 camera sites were established and left in situ for 8 days. Identified species were recorded in discrete 15 min intervals, referred to as 'events'. In total, 19 804 events were recorded. From these, 31 species were identified comprising 25 native species and six introduced. Two introduced rodent species were detected: the black rat (90% of sites), and house mouse Mus musculus (56% of sites). Rodent activity of both black rats and house mice were positively associated with the structural density of habitats. Density of seabird burrows was not strongly associated with relative activity levels of rodents, yet rodents were still present in these areas. Camera trapping enabled a large number of rodents to be detected with confidence in site-specific absences and high resolution to quantify relative activity levels. This method enables detection of multiple species simultaneously with low impact (for both target and non-target individuals); an ideal strategy for monitoring trap-adverse invasive rodents in high conservation areas.

Could controlling mammalian carnivores lead to mesopredator release of carnivorous reptiles?

Emerging evidence increasingly illustrates the importance of a holistic, rather than taxon-specific, approach to the study of ecological communities. Considerable resources are expended to manage both introduced and native mammalian carnivores to improve conservation outcomes; however, management can result in unforeseen and sometimes catastrophic outcomes. Varanid lizards are likely to be apex- or mesopredators, but being reptiles are rarely considered by managers and researchers when investigating the impacts of mammalian carnivore management. Instances of mesopredator release have been described for Varanus gouldii as a result of fox and cat management in Australia, with cascading effects on faunal community structure. A meta-analysis showing extensive dietary niche overlap between varanids, foxes and cats plus a review of experimental and circumstantial evidence suggests mesopredator release of V. gouldii and about five other medium to large species of varanid lizard is likely in other regions. This highlights the need for managers to adopt a whole-of-community approach when attempting to manage predators for sustained fauna conservation, and that additional research is required to elucidate whether mesopredator release of varanids is a widespread consequence of carnivore management, altering the intended faunal responses.

Self-regulation within outbreak populations of feral house mice: a test of alternative models.

1. Outbreaks of feral house mice, Mus domesticus, in Australia represent a fundamental failure of the behavioural control mechanisms of population density, as proposed in the hypothesis of self-regulation. 2. Mice have the potential to keep numbers in check via a suite of spacing behaviours; however, the self-regulation hypothesis implies that some social change occurs that permits the population to erupt. It also suggests that at different phases of an outbreak, distinct patterns of social activity are evident. 3. We compare predictions from two models encapsulating the self-regulation hypothesis as applied to feral house mice in south-eastern Australia. Each model may be distinguished by the timing of aggressiveness between mice that leads to a closed social system. We compare individual turnover, residency and territoriality in each sex and age cohort during the increase, peak and low phases of a population outbreak that peaked in 2001. 4. The activity of 438 mice was monitored via intensive mark-recapture trapping and an automated event recording system that detected the activity of 300 marked individuals at burrow entrances. 5. Our findings support the second model, which suggests that mice switch from an almost asocial structure at low densities to a territorial system as abundance increases. Adult females appear more likely than males or juveniles to make the significant social shift. The trigger for this change remains unclear and several alternative mechanisms are proposed.

Kin interactions and changing social structure during a population outbreak of feral house mice.

Populations of feral house mice (Mus domesticus L.) in Australia undergo multiannual fluctuations in density, and these outbreaks may be partly driven by some change in behavioural self-regulation. In other vertebrate populations with multiannual fluctuations, changes in kin structure have been proposed as a causal mechanism for changes in spacing behaviour, which consequently result in density fluctuations. We tested the predictions of two alternative conceptual models based on kin selection in a population of house mice during such an outbreak. Both published models (Charnov & Finerty 1980; Lambin & Krebs 1991) propose that the level of relatedness between interacting individuals affects their behavioural response and that this changes with population density, though the nature of this relationship differs between the two models. Neither of the models was consistent with all observed changes in relatedness between interacting female mice; however, our results suggested that changes in kin structure still have potential for explaining why mouse outbreaks begin. Therefore, we have developed a variant of one of these conceptual models suggesting that the maintenance of female kin groups through the preceding winter significantly improves recruitment during the subsequent breeding season, and is therefore necessary for mouse outbreaks. We provide six testable predictions to falsify this hypothesis.