Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines.

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century.

Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations.

Thirty-three-day storage of dithiothreitol-treated red blood cells used to eliminate daratumumab interference in serological testing.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Daratumumab binds CD38 on red blood cells causing interference with indirect antiglobulin tests. Dithiothreitol is used to eliminate interference allowing detection of alloantibodies. Haemolysis is observed during storage of dithiothreitol-treated antibody identification panel cells. The objective of this study was to develop a modified method for dithiothreitol treatment to reduce the haemolysis during 33 days of storage and still be able to eliminate daratumumab interference. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Panel cells were treated with various volumes of 0·2 m dithiothreitol supplied by various manufacturers. Haemolysis Index of dithiothreitol-treated and untreated panel cells was measured and compared on days 1, 15 and 33. Antibody screening tests with dithiothreitol-treated screening cells were performed on samples from 15 daratumumab-treated patients (dose 16 mg/kg) and 34 patients with known alloantibodies. Antibody identifications with dithiothreitol-treated panel cells were performed on seven additional known alloantibodies. RESULTS: Dithiothreitol treatment with a ratio of 30:25 (red blood cells:dithiothreitol) showed the same degree of haemolysis as with untreated panel cells. Daratumumab interference was eliminated in all 15 samples from daratumumab-treated patients. Twenty-six of 34 alloantibodies were detected, and all seven additional alloantibodies were identified using the modified dithiothreitol treatment. Eight alloantibodies within the Kell system were negative. No decrease in the reaction strength was observed during the 33-day storage period. CONCLUSION: The modified dithiothreitol method was able to reduce haemolysis during storage and to detect and identify alloantibodies in the presence of daratumumab.