Federated analyses of multiple data sources in drug safety studies.

PURPOSE: Studies of rare side effects of new drugs with limited exposure may require pooling of multiple data sources. Federated Analyses (FA) allow real-time, interactive, centralized statistical processing of individual-level data from different data sets without transfer of sensitive personal data. METHODS: We review IT-architecture, legal considerations, and statistical methods in FA, based on a Swedish Medical Products Agency methodological development project. RESULTS: In a review of all post-authorisation safety studies assessed by the EMA during 2019, 74% (20/27 studies) reported issues with lack of precision in spite of mean study periods of 9.3 years. FA could potentially improve precision in such studies. Depending on the statistical model, the federated approach can generate identical results to a standard analysis. FA may be particularly attractive for repeated collaborative projects where data is regularly updated. There are also important limitations. Detailed agreements between involved parties are strongly recommended to anticipate potential issues and conflicts, document a shared understanding of the project, and fully comply with legal obligations regarding ethics and data protection. FA do not remove the data harmonisation step, which remains essential and often cumbersome. Reliable support for technical integration with the local server architecture and security solutions is required. Common statistical methods are available, but adaptations may be required. CONCLUSIONS: Federated Analyses require competent and active involvement of all collaborating parties but have the potential to facilitate collaboration across institutional and national borders and improve the precision of postmarketing drug safety studies.

Optimized diagnosis-based comorbidity measures for all-cause mortality prediction in a national population-based ICU population.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to optimize prediction of long-term all-cause mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, using quantitative register-based comorbidity information assessed from hospital discharge diagnoses prior to intensive care treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Adult ICU admissions during 2006 to 2012 in the Swedish intensive care register were followed for at least 4 years. The performance of quantitative comorbidity measures based on the 5-year history of number of hospital admissions, length of stay, and time since latest admission in 36 comorbidity categories was compared in time-to-event analyses with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS3). RESULTS: During a 7-year period, there were 230,056 ICU admissions and 62,225 deaths among 188,965 unique individuals. The time interval from the most recent hospital stays and total length of stay within each comorbidity category optimized mortality prediction and provided clear separation of risk categories also within strata of age and CCI, with hazard ratios (HRs) comparing lowest to highest quartile ranging from 1.17 (95% CI: 0.52-2.64) to 6.41 (95% CI: 5.19-7.92). Risk separation was also observed within SAPS deciles with HR ranging from 1.07 (95% CI: 0.83-1.38) to 3.58 (95% CI: 2.12-6.03). CONCLUSION: Baseline comorbidity measures that included the time interval from the most recent hospital stay in 36 different comorbidity categories substantially improved long-term mortality prediction after ICU admission compared to the Charlson index and the SAPS score. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04109001, date of registration 2019-09-26 retrospectively.

Symptoms and ECG changes precede sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy-A nationwide study among the young in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a major cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the young. We aimed to characterize detailed family history, symptoms, hospital utilization and ECG changes before SCD. METHODS: We extracted all cases suffering SCD with HCM from the SUDDY cohort, which includes all cases of SCD between 2000-2010 in Sweden among individuals aged 0-35 years along with their controls. We gathered data from mandatory national registries, autopsy reports, medical records, ECGs (including military conscripts), and detailed family history from an interview-based questionnaire (with relatives, post-mortem). RESULTS: Thirty-eight cases (7 female), mean age 22 years, with HCM were identified. Among these, 71% presented with possible cardiac symptoms (chest pain [26%], syncope [22%], palpitations [37%]), before death; 69% received medical care (vs 21% in controls) within 180 days before death. The majority (68%) died during recreational activity (n = 14) or exercise/competitive sports (n = 12). Fifteen (39%) had a known cardiac disorder prior to death, with HCM being diagnosed pre-mortem in nine cases. 58% presented with abnormal ECG recordings pre-mortem, and 50% had a positive family history (1st-3rd generation) for heart disease. CONCLUSION: In this comprehensive, nationwide study of SCD due to HCM, 87% (33/38) of cases had one or more abnormality prior to death, including cardiac symptoms, a positive family history, known cardiac disease or ECG abnormalities. They sought medical care prior death, to a larger extent than controls. These findings suggest that cardiac screening should be expanded beyond competitive athletes to aid SCD prevention in the young population with HCM.

Family History and Warning Symptoms Precede Sudden Cardiac Death in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy (from a Nationwide Study in Sweden).

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited cardiac disease explaining about 4% of sudden cardiac death (SCD) cases in the young in Sweden. This study aimed to describe the circumstances preceding SCD in all victims <35 years of age who received an autopsy-confirmed diagnosis of ARVC from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010, in Sweden (n = 22). Data on demographics, medical and family history, circumstances of death, and anatomopathological findings were collected from several compulsory national health registries, clinical records, family interviews, and autopsy reports. Registry-based data were compared with age-matched, gender-matched, and geographically-matched population controls. During the 6 months preceding SCD, 15 cases (68%) had experienced symptoms of cardiac origin, mainly syncope or presyncope (54%) and chest discomfort (27%). A total of 8 cases (36%) had sought medical care because of cardiac symptoms. The occurrence of hospital visits was significantly increased in cases compared with controls (odds ratio 4.62 [1.35 to 15.8]). A total of 10 cases (45%) had a family history of SCD. The most common activity at the time of death was exercise (41%). A complete cardiac investigation was seldom performed; only 1 case was diagnosed with ARVC before death. In conclusion, in this nationwide study, we observed a high prevalence of symptoms of cardiac origin, healthcare use, and family history of SCD preceding SCD in the young caused by ARVC. Increased awareness of these warning signals in younger patients is critical to improving risk stratification and early disease detection.

Cohort profile: the Swedish study of SUDden cardiac Death in the Young (SUDDY) 2000-2010: a complete nationwide cohort of SCDs.

PURPOSE: The rationale behind the SUDden cardiac Death in the Young (SUDDY) cohort was to provide a complete nationwide, high-quality platform with integrated multisource data, for clinical and genetic research on sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the young, with the ultimate goal to predict and prevent SCD. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort contains all SCD victims <36 years, in Sweden during the period 2000-2010. We assigned five population-based controls per case, together with parents of cases and controls, in total 15 633 individuals. Data of all individuals were extracted from multiple mandatory registries; the National Patient Registry, the Medical Birth Registry, the Prescribed Drug registry, the Cause of Death registry, the Multigeneration Registry, combined with socioeconomic data from Statistics Sweden. From SCD victims, the autopsy report, medical records, ECGs, parental information and biological samples were gathered. FINDINGS TO DATE: We identified 903 individuals diagnosed with SCD (67% men, 33% women). The cases comprised 236 infants <1 year of age (26%), 90 individuals aged 1-15 years (10%), 186 individuals aged 15-25 years (21%) and 391 aged 25-35 years (43%). Hospitalisations and outpatient clinic visits due to syncope were significantly more common among cases than controls. DNA obtained from dried blood spots tests (DBS) stored from birth was equally suitable as venous blood samples for high-throughput genetic analysis of SCD cases. FUTURE PLANS: We will explore the SUDDY cohort for symptoms and healthcare consumption, socioeconomic variables and family history of SCD. Furthermore, we will perform whole exome sequencing analysis on DNA of cases obtained from DBS or postmortem samples together with parental blood samples in search for gene variants associated with cardiac disease. The genetic analysis together with data compiled in the nationwide cohort is expected to improve current knowledge on the incidence, aetiology, clinical characteristics and family history of SCD.

Development of gut microbiota during the first 2 years of life.

Although development of microbiota in childhood has been linked to chronic immune-related conditions, early childhood determinants of microbiota development have not been fully elucidated. We used 16S rRNA sequencing to analyse faecal and saliva samples from 83 children at four time-points during their first 2 years of life and from their mothers. Our findings confirm that gut microbiota in infants have low diversity and highlight that some properties are shared with the oral microbiota, although inter-individual differences are present. A considerable convergence in gut microbiota composition was noted across the first 2 years of life, towards a more diverse adult-like microbiota. Mode of delivery accounted for some of the inter-individual variation in early childhood, but with a pronounced attenuation over time. Our study extends previous research with further characterization of the major shift in gut microbiota composition during the first 2 years of life.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D is associated with fracture risk only during periods of seasonally high levels in women with a high body mass index.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (S-25OHD) is used to assess vitamin D status and is known to be affected by season and fat mass. Because these factors are often ignored when interpreting S-25OHD, assessment of vitamin D associations with disease outcomes may be distorted. We aimed to investigate the impact of season of blood draw and fat mass on the association of S25OHD with fracture risk. We enrolled 5000 women, mean ± SD age 68 ± 7 years, with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans and blood collection in a population-based cohort. Proportional hazards regression, stratified by season and fat mass, was used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) of fracture according to categories of S-25OHD. Our secondary exposures were serum 1,25-dihydroxycholecalciferol (1,25-(OH)2 D3 ), the most active vitamin D metabolite and plasma parathyroid hormone (P-PTH). During an average of 9.2 years of follow-up, 1080 women had a fracture. Women with S-25OHD <30 nmol/L drawn during sunny months (May-October) had a multivariable-adjusted fracture HR of 2.06 (95% CI, 1.27-3.35) compared with those with S-25OHD >60 nmol/L; those with S-25OHD 30-40 nmol/L had an HR of 1.59 (95% CI, 1.12-2.26). In contrast, S-25OHD drawn during November through April was unrelated to fracture risk. The increased risk with low sunny season S-25OHD was seen only among women with body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 or fat mass index (FMI) ≥9.8 kg/m2 . High fat mass and low S-25OHD were independently related to lower S-1,25-dihydroxycholecalciferol, which itself predicted fracture risk with samples collected during the sunny season. Irrespective of season, P-PTH was unrelated to fracture risk. We conclude that S-25OHD is associated with fracture risk only if drawn during periods of seasonally high levels in women with a high BMI. These results have implications for the evaluation of vitamin D status and can explain the lack of effect seen with vitamin D supplementation in many fracture trials. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Outcome of PCI with Xience versus other commonly used modern drug eluting stents: A SCAAR report.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the clinical outcome of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using the Xience drug eluting stent (DES) versus other modern DES. METHODS: This retrospective study based on the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (SCAAR) analyzed the outcome of PCI using Xience versus other commonly used modern DES, 2007 to 2017. The primary outcome measure was a combination of all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI) and revascularisation with PCI. Angiographical outcome measures were in-stent restenosis (ISR) and stent thrombosis (ST). RESULTS: Rates of the primary outcome measure for Xience and other DES were 31.9% and 28.2% respectively, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.95-1.03). Crude rates of ISR were 2.9% versus 2.1% over 4.3 and 2.9 years respectively, adjusted HR 0.93 (95% CI 0.81-1.06). Crude rates of ST were 0.9% versus 0.7%, adjusted HR 1.07 (95% CI 0.82-1.39). Results were consistent in all sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This nationally complete, real-world study confirms that Xience is a safe and effective DES with low-event rates of ISR and ST. Compared with a control group containing a large proportion of thinner strut stents and absorbable polymers, Xience exhibits similar results in all important clinical endpoints.

Implementation of sacubitril/valsartan in Sweden: clinical characteristics, titration patterns, and determinants.

AIMS: The aim of this study is to study the introduction of sacubitril/valsartan (sac/val) in Sweden with regards to regional differences, clinical characteristics, titration patterns, and determinants of use and discontinuation. METHODS AND RESULTS: A national cohort of heart failure was defined from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register and National Patient Register. A subcohort with additional data from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF) was also studied. Cohorts were subdivided as per sac/val prescription and registration in SwedeHF. Median sac/val prescription rate was 20 per 100 000 inhabitants. Between April 2016 and December 2017, we identified 2037 patients with ≥1 sac/val prescription, of which 1144 (56%) were registered in SwedeHF. Overall, patients prescribed with sac/val were younger, more frequently male, and had less prior cardiovascular disease than non-sac/val patients. In SwedeHF subcohort, patients prescribed with sac/val had lower ejection fraction. Overall, younger age [hazard ratio 2.81 (95% confidence interval 2.45-3.22)], registration in SwedeHF [1.97 (1.83-2.12)], male gender [1.50 (1.37-1.64)], ischaemic heart disease [1.50 (1.39-1.62)], lower left ventricular ejection fraction [3.06 (2.18-4.31)], and New York Heart Association IV [1.50 (1.22-1.84)] were predictors for sac/val use. As initiation dose in the sac/val cohort, 38% received 24/26 mg, 54% 49/51 mg, and 9% 97/103 mg. Up-titration to the target dose was achieved in 57% of the overall cohort over a median follow-up of 6 months. The estimated treatment persistence for any dose at 360 days was 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of sac/val in Sweden was slow and varied five-fold across different regions; younger age, male, SwedeHF registration, and ischaemic heart disease were among the independent predictors of receiving sac/val. Overall, treatment persistence and tolerability was high.

Combined associations of body mass index and adherence to a Mediterranean-like diet with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the effect on mortality of a higher body mass index (BMI) can be compensated for by adherence to a healthy diet and whether the effect on mortality by a low adherence to a healthy diet can be compensated for by a normal weight. We aimed to evaluate the associations of BMI combined with adherence to a Mediterranean-like diet on all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our longitudinal cohort design included the Swedish Mammography Cohort (SMC) and the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) (1997-2017), with a total of 79,003 women (44%) and men (56%) and a mean baseline age of 61 years. BMI was categorized into normal weight (20-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), and obesity (30+ kg/m2). Adherence to a Mediterranean-like diet was assessed by means of the modified Mediterranean-like diet (mMED) score, ranging from 0 to 8; mMED was classified into 3 categories (0 to <4, 4 to <6, and 6-8 score points), forming a total of 9 BMI × mMED combinations. We identified mortality by use of national Swedish registers. Cox proportional hazard models with time-updated information on exposure and covariates were used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Our HRs were adjusted for age, baseline educational level, marital status, leisure time physical exercise, walking/cycling, height, energy intake, smoking habits, baseline Charlson's weighted comorbidity index, and baseline diabetes mellitus. During up to 21 years of follow-up, 30,389 (38%) participants died, corresponding to 22 deaths per 1,000 person-years. We found the lowest HR of all-cause mortality among overweight individuals with high mMED (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.90, 0.98) compared with those with normal weight and high mMED. Using the same reference, obese individuals with high mMED did not experience significantly higher all-cause mortality (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.96-1.11). In contrast, compared with those with normal weight and high mMED, individuals with a low mMED had a high mortality despite a normal BMI (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.48-1.74). We found similar estimates among women and men. For CVD mortality (12,064 deaths) the findings were broadly similar, though obese individuals with high mMED retained a modestly increased risk of CVD death (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.16-1.44) compared with those with normal weight and high mMED. A main limitation of the present study is the observational design with self-reported lifestyle information with risk of residual or unmeasured confounding (e.g., genetic liability), and no causal inferences can be made based on this study alone. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that diet quality modifies the association between BMI and all-cause mortality in women and men. A healthy diet may, however, not completely counter higher CVD mortality related to obesity.

Early Childhood Antibiotic Treatment for Otitis Media and Other Respiratory Tract Infections Is Associated With Risk of Type 1 Diabetes: A Nationwide Register-Based Study With Sibling Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of early-life antibiotic treatment on the risk of type 1 diabetes is debated. This study assessed this question, applying a register-based design in children up to age 10 years including a large sibling-control analysis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All singleton children (n = 797,318) born in Sweden between 1 July 2005 and 30 September 2013 were included and monitored to 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for parental and perinatal characteristics, were applied, and stratified models were used to account for unmeasured confounders shared by siblings. RESULTS: Type 1 diabetes developed in 1,297 children during the follow-up (median 4.0 years [range 0-8.3]). Prescribed antibiotics in the 1st year of life (23.8%) were associated with an increased risk of type 1 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.19 [95% CI 1.05-1.36]), with larger effect estimates among children delivered by cesarean section (P for interaction = 0.016). The association was driven by exposure to antibiotics primarily used for acute otitis media and respiratory tract infections. Further, we found an association of antibiotic prescriptions in pregnancy (22.5%) with type 1 diabetes (adjusted HR 1.15 [95% CI 1.00-1.32]). In general, sibling analysis supported these results, albeit often with statistically nonsignificant associations. CONCLUSIONS: Dispensed prescription of antibiotics, mainly for acute otitis media and respiratory tract infections, in the 1st year of life is associated with an increased risk of type 1 diabetes before age 10 years, most prominently in children delivered by cesarean section.

Risk factors for subarachnoid haemorrhage: a nationwide cohort of 950 000 adults.

BACKGROUND: Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is a devastating disease, with high mortality rate and substantial disability among survivors. Its causes are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate risk factors for SAH using a novel nationwide cohort consortium. METHODS: We obtained individual participant data of 949 683 persons (330 334 women) between 25 and 90 years old, with no history of SAH at baseline, from 21 population-based cohorts. Outcomes were obtained from the Swedish Patient and Causes of Death Registries. RESULTS: During 13 704 959 person-years of follow-up, 2659 cases of first-ever fatal or non-fatal SAH occurred, with an age-standardized incidence rate of 9.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) (7.4-10.6)/100 000 person-years] in men and 13.8 [(11.4-16.2)/100 000 person-years] in women. The incidence rate increased exponentially with higher age. In multivariable-adjusted Poisson models, marked sex interactions for current smoking and body mass index (BMI) were observed. Current smoking conferred a rate ratio (RR) of 2.24 (95% CI 1.95-2.57) in women and 1.62 (1.47-1.79) in men. One standard deviation higher BMI was associated with an RR of 0.86 (0.81-0.92) in women and 1.02 (0.96-1.08) in men. Higher blood pressure and lower education level were also associated with higher risk of SAH. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of SAH is 45% higher in women than in men, with substantial sex differences in risk factor strengths. In particular, a markedly stronger adverse effect of smoking in women may motivate targeted public health initiatives.

Combined association of key risk factors on ischaemic outcomes and bleeding in patients with myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: In patients with myocardial infarction (MI), risk factors for bleeding and ischaemic events tend to overlap, but the combined effects of these factors have scarcely been studied in contemporary real-world settings. We aimed to assess the combined associations of established risk factors using nationwide registries. METHODS: Using the Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies registry, patients with invasively managed MI in 2006-2014 were included. Six factors were assessed in relation to cardiovascular death (CVD)/MI/stroke, and major bleeding: age ≥65, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, multivessel disease, prior bleeding and prior MI. RESULTS: We studied 100 879 patients, of whom 20 831 (20.6%) experienced CVD/MI/stroke and 5939 (5.9%) major bleeding, during 3.6 years median follow-up. In adjusted Cox models, all factors were associated with CVD/MI/stroke, and all but prior MI were associated with major bleeding. The majority (53.5%) had ≥2 risk factors. With each added risk factor, there was a marked but gradual increase in incidence of the CVD/MI/stroke. This was seen also for major bleeding, but to a lesser extent, largely driven by prior bleeding as the strongest risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients with MI had two or more established risk factors. Increasing number of risk factors was associated with higher rate of ischaemic events. When excluding patients with prior major bleeding, bleeding incidence rate increased only minimally with increasing number of risk factors. The high ischaemic risk in those with multiple risk factors highlights an unmet need for additional preventive measures.

Impact of ischaemic heart disease severity and age on risk of cardiovascular outcome in diabetes patients in Sweden: a nationwide observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare short-term cardiovascular (CV) outcome in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients without ischaemic heart disease (IHD), with IHD but no prior myocardial infarction (MI), and those with prior MI; and assess the impact on risk of age when initiating first-time glucose-lowering drug (GLD). DESIGN: Cohort study linking morbidity, mortality and medication data from Swedish national registries. PARTICIPANTS: First-time users of GLD during 2007-2016. OUTCOMES: Predicted cumulative incidence for the CV outcome (MI, stroke and CV mortality) was estimated. A Cox model was developed where age at GLD start and CV risk was modelled. RESULTS: 260 070 first-time GLD users were included, 221 226 (85%) had no IHD, 16 294 (6%) had stable IHD-prior MI and 22 550 (9%) had IHD+MI. T2D patients without IHD had a lower risk of CV outcome compared with the IHD populations (±prior MI), (3-year incidence 4.78% vs 5.85% and 8.04%). The difference in CV outcome was primarily driven by a relative greater MI risk among the IHD patients. For T2D patients without IHD, an almost linear association between age at start of GLD and relative risk was observed, whereas in IHD patients, the younger (<60 years) patients had a relative greater risk compared with older patients. CONCLUSIONS: T2D patients without IHD had a lower risk of the CV outcome compared with the T2D populations with IHD, primarily driven by a greater risk of MI. For T2D patients without IHD, an almost linear association between age at start of GLD and relative risk was observed, whereas in IHD patients, the younger patients had a relative greater risk compared with older patients. Our findings suggest that intense risk prevention should be the key strategy in the management of T2D patients, especially for younger patients.

Rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium.

We herein outline the rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium, aiming to facilitate greater use of Swedish cohorts for world-class research. Coordination of all Swedish prospective population-based cohorts in a common infrastructure would enable more precise research findings and facilitate research on rare exposures and outcomes, leading to better utilization of study participants' data, better return of funders' investments, and higher benefit to patients and populations. We motivate the proposed infrastructure partly by lessons learned from a pilot study encompassing data from 21 cohorts. We envisage a standing Swedish cohort consortium that would drive development of epidemiological research methods and strengthen the Swedish as well as international epidemiological competence, community, and competitiveness.

External Validation of the DAPT Score in a Nationwide Population.

BACKGROUND: The dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) score guides decisions on DAPT duration after coronary stenting by simultaneously predicting ischemic and bleeding risk. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the performance of the DAPT score in a nationwide real-world population. METHODS: The study used register data in Sweden (2006 to 2014) and followed 41,101 patients who had undergone 12 months of event-free DAPT, from months 12 to 30 after stenting. Risk of myocardial infarction (MI) or stent thrombosis, major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (MI, stroke, and all-cause death), and fatal or major bleeding were compared according to DAPT score. RESULTS: The score had a discrimination of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.60) for MI or stent thrombosis, 0.54 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.55) for MACCE, and 0.49 (95% CI: 0.45 to 0.53) for fatal or major bleeding. Risk of MI or stent thrombosis was significantly increased at scores of ≥3 while MACCE risk followed a J-shaped pattern and increased at scores of ≥4. Absolute differences in fatal or major bleeding risk were small between scores. Event rates of ischemic and bleeding outcomes in patients with high (≥2) and low (<2) scores differed compared to the DAPT Study from which the score was derived; fatal or major bleeding rates were approximately one-half of those in the placebo arm of the DAPT Study. CONCLUSIONS: In a nationwide population, the DAPT score did not adequately discriminate ischemic and bleeding risk, the relationship between score and ischemic risk did not correspond to the suggested decision rule for extended DAPT, and risk of bleeding was lower compared with the DAPT Study. The score and its decision rule may not be generalizable to real-world populations.

Effect of expanding evidence and evolving clinical guidelines on the prevalence of indication for cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure.

AIMS: To assess the prevalence of indication for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (EF) when recommendations from evolving European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines are considered. METHODS AND RESULTS: Unique patients (n=17 193) with EF ≤39% and key data available for evaluation of CRT indication from the Swedish HF Registry were included. Indication for CRT was defined as either CRT implanted or CRT device absent but fulfilling criteria for class I-IIa recommendations in ESC guidelines published between 2005/2007 and 2016. Prevalence was calculated as the ratio of patients with CRT indication to the study population. The prevalence of CRT indication increased from 24.5% when the 2005/2007 ESC guidelines were considered to a peak of 30.0% when the 2013 ESC guidelines were considered (P<0.001, 22.4% relative increase). Compared to the 2013 ESC guidelines, the prevalence declined significantly when the 2016 ESC guidelines were used as determinant for CRT indication (26.8%, 10.7% relative reduction, P<0.001). Actual CRT utilization was 6.8%. CONCLUSION: Among patients with HF and reduced EF, the prevalence of CRT indication increased significantly comparing recommendations from ESC guidelines published between 2005/2007 and 2013, but then declined when the 2016 ESC guidelines were considered. The 2005-2013 increase may reflect the expansion of documented CRT efficacy to New York Heart Association class II, whereas the subsequent drop likely results from the more stringent criteria for QRS duration in the 2016 ESC guidelines. Actual CRT utilization is lower than indicated, regardless of which guidelines are considered.

Culprit and Nonculprit Recurrent Ischemic Events in Patients With Myocardial Infarction: Data From SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies).

BackgroundLong-term disease progression after myocardial infarction (MI) is inadequately understood. We evaluated the pattern and angiographic properties (culprit lesion [CL]/non-CL [NCL]) of recurrent MI (re-MI) in a large real-world patient population. Methods and ResultsOur observational study used prospectively collected data in 108 615 patients with first-occurrence MI enrolled in the SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) between July 1, 2006 and November 29, 2014. During follow-up (median, 3.2 years), recurrent hospitalization for MI occurred in 11 117 patients (10.2%). Of the patients who underwent coronary angiography for the index MI, a CL was identified in 44 332 patients. Of those patients, 3464 experienced an re-MI; the infarct originated from the NCL in 1243 patients and from the CL in 655 patients. In total, 1566 re-MIs were indeterminate events and could not be classified as NCL or CL re-MIs. The risk of re-MI within 8 years related to the NCL was 0.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05-0.06), compared with 0.03 (95% CI, 0.02-0.03) for the CL. There were no large differences in baseline characteristics of patients with subsequent NCL versus CL re-MIs. Independent predictors of NCL versus CL re- MI were multivessel disease (odds ratio, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.87-2.82), male sex (odds ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71), and a prolonged time between the index and re-MI (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.22). ConclusionsIn a large cohort of patients with first-occurrence MI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, the risk of re-MI originating from a previously untreated lesion was twice higher than the risk of lesions originating from a previously stented lesion. Clinical Trial RegistrationURL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT03099395.

Antithrombotic therapy after myocardial infarction in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

Aims: Optimal antithrombotic therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation is uncertain. In this study, we compared antithrombotic regimes with regard to a composite cardiovascular outcome of all-cause mortality, MI or ischaemic stroke, and major bleeds. Methods and results: Patients between October 2005 and December 2012 were identified in Swedish registries, n = 7116. Landmark 0-90 and 91-365 days of outcome were evaluated with Cox-regressions, with dual antiplatelet therapy as reference. At discharge, 16.2% received triple therapy (aspirin, clopidogrel, and warfarin), 1.9% aspirin plus warfarin, 7.3% clopidogrel plus warfarin, and 60.8% dual antiplatelets. For cardiovascular outcome, adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval (HR) for triple therapy was 0.86 (0.70-1.07) for 0-90 days and 0.78 (0.58-1.05) for 91-365 days. A HR of 2.16 (1.48-3.13) and 1.61 (0.98-2.66) during 0-90 and 91-365 days, respectively, was observed for major bleeds. For aspirin plus warfarin, HR 0.82 (0.54-1.26) and 0.62 (0.48-0.79) was observed for cardiovascular outcome and 1.30 (0.60-2.85) and 1.01 (0.63-1.62) for major bleeds during 0-90 and 91-365 days, respectively. For clopidogrel plus warfarin, HR of 0.90 (0.68-1.19) and 0.68 (0.49-0.95) was observed for cardiovascular outcome and 1.28 (0.71-2.32) and 1.08 (0.57-2.04) for major bleeds during 0-90 and 91-365 days, respectively. Conclusion: Compared to dual antiplatelets, aspirin or clopidogrel plus warfarin therapy was associated with similar 0-90 days and lower 91-365 days of risk of the cardiovascular outcome, without higher risk of major bleeds. Triple therapy was associated with non-significant lower risk of cardiovascular outcome and higher risk of major bleeds.

Prediction of mortality risk in victims of violent crimes.

BACKGROUND: To predict mortality risk in victims of violent crimes based on individual injury diagnoses and other information available in health care registries. METHODS: Data from the Swedish hospital discharge registry and the cause of death registry were combined to identify 15,000 hospitalisations or prehospital deaths related to violent crimes. The ability of patient characteristics, injury type and severity, and cause of injury to predict death was modelled using conventional, Lasso, or Bayesian logistic regression in a development dataset and evaluated in a validation dataset. RESULTS: Of 14,470 injury events severe enough to cause death or hospitalization 3.7% (556) died before hospital admission and 0.5% (71) during the hospital stay. The majority (76%) of hospital survivors had minor injury severity and most (67%) were discharged from hospital within 1day. A multivariable model with age, sex, the ICD-10 based injury severity score (ICISS), cause of injury, and major injury region provided predictions with very good discrimination (C-index=0.99) and calibration. Adding information on major injury interactions further improved model performance. Modeling individual injury diagnoses did not improve predictions over the combined ICISS score. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality risk after violent crimes can be accurately estimated using administrative data. The use of Bayesian regression models provides meaningful risk assessment with more straightforward interpretation of uncertainty of the prediction, potentially also on the individual level. This can aid estimation of incidence trends over time and comparisons of outcome of violent crimes for injury surveillance and in forensic medicine.