Can the health system deliver? Determinants of rural Liberians' confidence in health care.

BACKGROUND: Following a protracted civil war, Liberia is rebuilding its health system. One of the aims of reconstruction is to expand access to health care to a previously underserved rural population. OBJECTIVE: This study analysed the determinants of Liberians' confidence in their ability to obtain needed care for themselves or their children in case of serious illness. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 1435 adults in Nimba County, Liberia was conducted. Logistic regression models were estimated with reported ability to obtain needed health services for serious illness as the dependent variable, and demographics, health need, health system characteristics and informal health care as independent variables. RESULTS: Overall, 50.56% of respondents reported that they could obtain needed services for themselves or their children. Confidence in the ability to obtain care increased with education [odds ratio (OR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-2.21] and poor physical health in the past 30 days (OR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.01-1.88), and decreased with poverty (OR 0.66, 95% CI: 0.47-0.93), exposure to previous trauma (OR 0.50, 95% CI: 0.36-0.71), dissatisfaction with respondent's last formal health visit (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.54-0.91) and high utilization of the informal health sector (OR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.73-0.96). No correlation was found between health system confidence and being female, being 35 years old or younger, formal health sector use, being within an hour of a clinic and the closest clinic having basic capabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Respondents' experiences with the health care system had a greater correlation with their confidence in obtaining needed health care than proximity or quality of medical equipment in health clinics. Despite pro-poor policies guiding health system reconstruction, poor and less educated individuals have less confidence that the health system can meet their health needs.

Evaluating large-scale health programmes at a district level in resource-limited countries.

Recent experience in evaluating large-scale global health programmes has highlighted the need to consider contextual differences between sites implementing the same intervention. Traditional randomized controlled trials are ill-suited for this purpose, as they are designed to identify whether an intervention works, not how, when and why it works. In this paper we review several evaluation designs that attempt to account for contextual factors that contribute to intervention effectiveness. Using these designs as a base, we propose a set of principles that may help to capture information on context. Finally, we propose a tool, called a driver diagram, traditionally used in implementation that would allow evaluators to systematically monitor changing dynamics in project implementation and identify contextual variation across sites. We describe an implementation-related example from South Africa to underline the strengths of the tool. If used across multiple sites and multiple projects, the resulting driver diagrams could be pooled together to form a generalized theory for how, when and why a widely-used intervention works. Mechanisms similar to the driver diagram are urgently needed to complement existing evaluations of large-scale implementation efforts.