Getting from here to there: The contingency of historical evidence and the value of speculation.

Here I look to some work in the historical sciences in order to draw out some of the epistemic benefits of "speculative narratives," which bears on some more general epistemic benefits of speculative reasoning. Due to the contingent nature of much historical evidence, some degree of speculative reasoning is necessary to get the epistemological ball rolling in the historical sciences, and I argue that speculative narratives provide the necessary sort of frameworking apparatus for doing precisely this. I use contemporary work on the first peopling of the Americas (the "Clovis First Debate") for illustration.

What is narrative possibility?

In this paper I offer a new account of narrative possibility that I call the "ecological approach." I situate it relative to alternative "metaphysical" and "epistemological" approaches, and argue that it has advantages in comparison. It saves some of the important insights from each, but serves the purposes of narrative explanation better than either, specifically because it delimits the explanatory modal space of narrative explanation correctly, whereas the others do not.