The Comparison of Three Statistical Models for Syndromic Surveillance in Cattle Using Milk Production Data.

Two vector-borne infections have emerged and spread throughout the north-western part of Europe in the last decade: Bluetongue virus serotype-8 (BTV-8) and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV). The objective of the current study was to compare three statistical methods when applied in a syndromic surveillance context for the early detection of emerging diseases in cattle in the Netherlands. Since BTV-8 and SBV both have a negative effect on milk production in dairy cattle, routinely collected bulk milk recordings were used to compare the three statistical methods in their potential to detect drops in milk production during a period of seven years in which BTV-8 and SBV emerged. A Cusum algorithm, Bayesian disease mapping model, and spatiotemporal cluster analysis using the space-time scan statistic were performed and their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity was compared. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis performed best for early detection of SBV in cattle in the Netherlands with a relative sensitivity of 71% compared to clinical surveillance and 100% specificity in a year without major disease outbreaks. Sensitivity to detect BTV-8 was low for all methods. However, many alerts of reduced milk production were generated several weeks before the week in which first clinical suspicions were reported. It cannot be excluded that these alerts represent the actual first signs of BTV-8 infections in cattle in the Netherlands thus leading to an underestimation of the sensitivity of the syndromic surveillance methods relative to the clinical surveillance in place.

Alternative methods to compare safety of live-attenuated respiratory Newcastle disease vaccines in young chicks.

The work reported here is an initial attempt to find an alternative method by which the safety of live-attenuated Newcastle disease virus (NDV) vaccines for the respiratory tract of young chickens can be assessed. The current recommended methods involve either the subjective assessment of respiratory signs, or raise ethical concerns, as in the case of the intracerebral pathogenicity index. The two methods considered here were the use of tracheal organ cultures to assess the level of ciliostasis which the vaccines caused to the ciliated epithelium of the trachea and the incorporation of a pathogenic strain of Escherichia coli in the inoculum in order to induce colibacillosis. Both methods were successful in confirming the safety of the two vaccines. However, these results are only preliminary and more studies need to be performed to determine whether one or both methods have potential, either to replace the existing statutory tests, or provide a test which might be useful during the development stages of a new live-attenuated NDV vaccine.

Prevalence, prediction and risk factors of enteropathogens in normal and non-normal faeces of young Dutch dairy calves.

Between January and April 2007, 424 calves under 22 days of age from 108 Dutch dairy herds were sampled to estimate the prevalence of non-normal faeces ('custard-like'-yellowish-coloured with custard consistency or diarrhoea: watery-like faeces) and the shedding of enteropathogens Escherichia coli K99 (E. coli), Coronavirus, Cryptosporidium parvum (C. parvum), Rotavirus and Clostridium perfringens (Cl. perfringens). In addition, information was collected on animal characteristics and herd-management practices. The probability of detecting each one of five enteropathogens given a calf with 'custard-like' faeces or diarrhoea was estimated using Bayes' rule and was based on the predicted probabilities from a multinominal model including each of five enteropathogens as independent variables. In addition, putative risk factors for the presence of each of five enteropathogens were analysed using logistic regression models with random herd effects. Fifty-seven percent of calves had faeces of normal colour (brownish) and consistency (firm), 23.8% (95%CI: 19.8-28.2%) had 'custard-like' faeces and 19.1% (95%CI: 15.5-23.2%) had diarrhoea. E. coli was the least detected enteropathogen (2.6% (95%CI: 1.3-4.6%) of calves, 9% (95%CI: 5-16%) of herds) and Cl. perfringens was most detected (54.0% (95%CI: 49.1-58.8%) of calves, 85% (95%CI: 77-91%) of herds). E. coli and Coronavirus were detected incidentally in only one or two calves per herd, whereas C. parvum and Cl. perfringens were frequently detected in up to four calves per herd. For calves with 'custard-like' faeces, the probability of detecting Rotavirus from a calf in its first week of age was 0.31 whereas for a calf in its second week, there was a 0.66 probability of detecting C. parvum. The probabilities of detecting E. coli, Rotavirus and C. parvum in calves with diarrhoea in their first week of age were 0.10, 0.20 and 0.43, respectively. In calves with diarrhoea between 1 and 2 weeks of age, the probability of detecting enteropathogens was 0.43 for C. parvum. None of the tested enteropathogens were related to 'custard-like' faeces or diarrhoea in the third week of age. Putative risk factors for E. coli, Coronavirus and C. parvum included the presence of peer-calves shedding Coronavirus, C. parvum or Rotavirus, respectively. Additionally, managerial risk factors such as non-optimal hygienic housing (for Coronavirus) and the routine use of antibiotics for diarrhoeic calves (for C. parvum) were found. No animal or managerial factors were associated with shedding of Cl. perfringens.